2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[MurphDogg]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They absolutely will not have to pay slot at 1, no matter who the pick is.

I made this same argument with Adley in 2019 and they still ended up paying him $8.1M, halfway between the 1.2 slot of $7.8M and the 1.1 slot of $8.4M. And Torkelson signed for full slot at 1-1 in 2020.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Johnson doesn't have a lack of athleticism.   He's only got average to solid speed but I'm sure no one would consider him anything but athletic.

Sometimes consensus is wrong.   It was very wrong about Austin Martin and yet you go with consensus when it suits you.   Consensus says that Termarr Johnson is the best pure hitter in the draft (along with Brooks Lee by the way) with the power potential to go along with it.  But because there is something you don't like about him, you disregard consensus in this instance.

I’m not disregarding it. Show me where I said I don’t agree that he has a great hit tool? 
 

I’ll wait.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not disregarding it. Show me where I said I don’t agree that he has a great hit tool? 
 

I’ll wait.  

You said Austin Martin was supposed to have an elite hit tool which to a reasonable person would be you questioning whether Johnson really has an elite hit tool after all.   Why did you bring Austin Martin up?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You said Austin Martin was supposed to have an elite hit tool which to a reasonable person would be you questioning whether Johnson really has an elite hit tool after all.   Why did you bring Austin Martin up?

Because there is more to a player than if he can hit.

[btdart20]

Here's the tiers/order as I have them:

"Creme de la creme" 1.1 picks - Jones      It seems like the vast majority have him as #1 on the prospect board (not the mocks).  Maybe not consensus, but pretty close.  I do think they'll have to pay slot here, but that's not a showstopper IMO.  Anyone else will be glad to get 1.1 and sign a team-friendly deal.

"Defensible" 1.1 picks - Green, Collier, Holliday     There's a different case for each of these ranging from highest upside/most power, most likely to hit/stick at SS...  Holliday is the one I know the least about, so I probably should bump him below Lee.  But I'd rather they pick from here up.

"I won't argue against it" 1.1 pick - Johnson    Yes, there's a case for drafting him, but from an org building perspective, I'm just not a fan of a 2B at 1.1.  That said, there's something to be said for penciling-in Joe Morgan into the daily line-up at 2B.  We have plenty of 2B depth now  (FWIW, I like Collier's swing better than Termarr's.)

"He better be as advertised (and stick at SS)" 1.1 pick - Lee     Unless the FO chatter about HS players is smoke/mirrors, I doubt they go with a college guy.  Lee could honestly be a great player, but he seems a little boring to me.  I tend to lean toward those with some tantalizing skillset.  Huge power, big time speed, Power/speed combo, best bat, best all-around, etc.  That describes the guys in tiers above.  But Lee seems above-average across the board with less floor risk because he's a college guy.  I'm hoping for something beyond 'above-average' with this pick.  Obviously, I'll be rooting for him if he's the pick, but he better be as advertised.  

Personally, not interested in anyone else:  no SP, no 1B/DH (Berry), no C/DH (Parada)...  

 

 

MLB Mock Draft 2022: Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones go 1-2; no pitcher taken until No. 13; Mets primed to spend - CBSSports.com

CBS chiming in with their mock draft with the O's taken Holliday at 1.1.  

Interesting quote from Ciolek:  "We're excited that we get the chance to obviously add another impact player to the system, and picking (No. 1 overall) is great because you will ultimately get to decide who you think is the best player in the country," Orioles director of draft operations Brad Ciolek told the Baltimore Sun in January. "Bottom line is we want to be able to make an impact not only with the first pick, but as of today, we're slated to pick three players in the top (42) overall selections. We're going to make sure that we do whatever we can to find as many impact players not only for those top three selections, but throughout our entire class."

 

[Frobby]

From a Keith Law chat yesterday:

“It's a complex question. If Druw Jones wants $9 million, and I can get Collier or Holliday or Termarr for $5.5 million, why wouldn't I take one of those three guys and use the savings to land 2-3 more first-round talents with subsequent picks? But if Jones wants only $1 million more, or even less of a gap, and I believe he's the best player, I might just take him. It depends on what each player wants and what my scouts & analysts believe about the relative merits of the players.”

https://theathletic.com/3369442/2022/06/16/live-qa-keith-law-answers-your-mlb-draft-questions-2/

So, it’s not as simple as some believe it to be.

[OriolesMagic83]

Since the slotting system started has a player picked #1 ever turned down #1 slot money?  I think Tork signed for slot and everyone else signed under slot.  What's Jones' choices if he's picked #1?  Take slot money or turn it down, go to college and MAYBE get picked #1 again and probably be offered #1 slot money.

Unless Druw has publicly stated he has to have over slot money to sign, I'm not buying it. 

 

[RZNJ]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From a Keith Law chat yesterday:

“It's a complex question. If Druw Jones wants $9 million, and I can get Collier or Holliday or Termarr for $5.5 million, why wouldn't I take one of those three guys and use the savings to land 2-3 more first-round talents with subsequent picks? But if Jones wants only $1 million more, or even less of a gap, and I believe he's the best player, I might just take him. It depends on what each player wants and what my scouts & analysts believe about the relative merits of the players.”

https://theathletic.com/3369442/2022/06/16/live-qa-keith-law-answers-your-mlb-draft-questions-2/

So, it’s not as simple as some believe it to be.

Really?  SportsGuy would call Keith Law STUPID!!!!!!!

 

I will say that I'm a little surprised to see Law say that.   He thinks Jones is clearly the #1 guy too.  Personally, I would pay the 9M and I can still pretty much play the rest of the draft straight up or still go over slot one time and make it up in other spots.   I would do it IF I thought Jones was clearly the #1 guy, meaning there's a fairly significant gap between #1 and #2-#5.   His comments make me believe that he doesn't think the difference is that significant.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Really?  SportsGuy would call Keith Law STUPID!!!!!!!

 

I will say that I'm a little surprised to see Law say that.   He thinks Jones is clearly the #1 guy too.  Personally, I would pay the 9M and I can still pretty much play the rest of the draft straight up or still go over slot one time and make it up in other spots.   I would do it IF I thought Jones was clearly the #1 guy, meaning there's a fairly significant gap between #1 and #2-#5.   His comments make me believe that he doesn't think the difference is that significant.

He’s pretty clear that it depends on what the Orioles think of Jones and the other top guys, not what he thinks.  

For me, what Law said is what I’ve thought all along.   It depends on both the perceived difference in the players and the difference in their demands.   It’s not 100% one or the other.   
 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s pretty clear that it depends on what the Orioles think of Jones and the other top guys, not what he thinks.  

For me, what Law said is what I’ve thought all along.   It depends on both the perceived difference in the players and the difference in their demands.   It’s not 100% one or the other.   
 

So it's not black and white?  Some people have a tough time with gray.   They did have Termarr in for the workout and most mocks have him going anywhere from 3-7 so he might be a guy you can get a discount on.    It's harder to see a big discount on Jones, Green, or even Brooks Lee.   Most mocks have them going in the top 4.   Termarr Johnson is more likely so slide over 1) size  2) maxed out physically   3) probably 2B.

[justD]

FWIW, here's the interview I posted over in the combine thread:

 

[ShoelesJoe]

I’m intrigued by MLB #12 prospect Cam Collier, specifically the fact that he’s a year younger than the high school kids who are ranked ahead of him. Is there a case to be made that he’s better right now than Jones, Johnson, Holliday, and Green were a year ago? If so, then I can see Elias & Co. deciding that he’s a worthy top pick. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I’m intrigued by MLB #12 prospect Cam Collier, specifically the fact that he’s a year younger than the high school kids who are ranked ahead of him. Is there a case to be made that he’s better right now than Jones, Johnson, Holliday, and Green were a year ago? If so, then I can see Elias & Co. deciding that he’s a worthy top pick. 

Again, how special is the bat?   He's a 3B and quiet possibly a future 1B.   That bat better be super special!    Jones is a true CF and probably a GG caliber CF.   Green can play CF but probably winds up in RF.   Johnson is probably a 2B.    Brooks Lee is probably a 3B or 2B but there's an outside chance he can stick at SS.     All of these players are supposedly good offensive players.   Give me the guy who can play some defense.    In that case, I'm thinking Jones and Lee are probably the 2 best combination players factoring in defense and offense.    Perhaps you can throw Termarr Johnson in there as well as the reports on his hand, first step quickness, and throwing accuracy are all good.   

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

From a Keith Law chat yesterday:

“It's a complex question. If Druw Jones wants $9 million, and I can get Collier or Holliday or Termarr for $5.5 million, why wouldn't I take one of those three guys and use the savings to land 2-3 more first-round talents with subsequent picks? But if Jones wants only $1 million more, or even less of a gap, and I believe he's the best player, I might just take him. It depends on what each player wants and what my scouts & analysts believe about the relative merits of the players.”

https://theathletic.com/3369442/2022/06/16/live-qa-keith-law-answers-your-mlb-draft-questions-2/

So, it’s not as simple as some believe it to be.

law can’t be dumb enough to think that Jones goes #1 and turns down 8-8.5M and go to college.  8.5M gives him the record for a signing bonus since the slotting system started.

There is zero chance he turns that down. He is not going back to college and risking injury and everything else that can go wrong over 500k.  No way.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Again, how special is the bat?   He's a 3B and quiet possibly a future 1B.   That bat better be super special!    Jones is a true CF and probably a GG caliber CF.   Green can play CF but probably winds up in RF.   Johnson is probably a 2B.    Brooks Lee is probably a 3B or 2B but there's an outside chance he can stick at SS.     All of these players are supposedly good offensive players.   Give me the guy who can play some defense.    In that case, I'm thinking Jones and Lee are probably the 2 best combination players factoring in defense and offense.    Perhaps you can throw Termarr Johnson in there as well as the reports on his hand, first step quickness, and throwing accuracy are all good.   

Collier would be a typical awful Elias pick, Berry too. Elias should not take anyone outside of Jones, Holiday, Lee, Green & Parrada. Period.