2021 Orioles #25 Prospect - Mishael Deson - OF

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/16/25-mishael-deson/

[sportsfan8703]

Here’s the player I’ve been waiting for. There’s a HR video on the minors board where he looks much bigger than 155lbs. A slick piece third piece that Elias was able to acquire in the Givens trade. I think it shows how much the org likes him that they promoted him to Delmarva with all the recent draftees knowing that there was going to be a roster crunch for playing time. Iron sharpens iron. Players in our system have to produce and can’t just sick back on their draft status/bonus. 

[Frobby]

Tony, I’m curious how you come up with a ceiling for a guy like this.   He’s 18 and I assume you haven’t had the chance to scout him personally.   It’s always a bit of a guess what a player’s ceiling is, but it seems almost impossible to know with a guy like Deson.   

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Tony, I’m curious how you come up with a ceiling for a guy like this.   He’s 18 and I assume you haven’t had the chance to scout him personally.   It’s always a bit of a guess what a player’s ceiling is, but it seems almost impossible to know with a guy like Deson.   

Ceiling is based off tools that he has or reportedly has. It's always tough when I haven't seen them personally. I did get to see Deson a few games at Delmarva though. It all depends on how the power develops as he fills out. Right now I see fourth outfielder, but let's see what he does next year in Delmarva as a 19 year old.

[BohKnowsBmore]

@Tony-OH quick question for you... conceptually, how do you think about "ceiling?" Obviously anyone could potentially surpass your projection of them. Is it their 80th percentile outcome by your estimation? 90th? 95th? 

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

@Tony-OH quick question for you... conceptually, how do you think about "ceiling?" Obviously anyone could potentially surpass your projection of them. Is it their 80th percentile outcome by your estimation? 90th? 95th? 

Realistically I base their celling off their tools and age and if almost everything broke right for them. It's probably more of a 90 percentile or higher leaving a little bit for guys that really maximize their game. 

Look at Rustchman where I give him a 70 ceiling which would make him one of the best catchers in baseball if not the best. 80 level is Hall of Famer. Obviously that's a very tough ceiling to give to anyone because it takes staying healthy and performing over a long time. Rutschman could end up that guy, but that would really require everything to go right at 100%.

With the DSL and GCL guys, it tough to do because I don't have a great feel for their tools because I'm going off of reports. That makes ceilings very tough.

It like trying to decide what a pitcher's ceiling is for command. To do it as accurate as possible, I'd need to know his strike percentages for each pitch while also looking at whether he repeats his delivery well and his athleticism. If I had statcast data it would also help especially the advanced metrics available to the clubs.

So basically there is a some art to this vs direct science. 

 

[LookinUp]

I'd argue that Tony's ceiling grades are conservative in general, but appropriately so. Most of these guys aren't going to be Jamie Moyer or John Means and exceed what would look like a realistic ceiling. On the other hand, some will, and that means Tony would be wrong.

But he can only do what he can do. Chances are that some young guy in this org right now will exceed the ceiling that Tony estimates. Chances are that 95% won't even get there, much less exceed the ceiling.

[NCRaven]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'd argue that Tony's ceiling grades are conservative in general, but appropriately so. Most of these guys aren't going to be Jamie Moyer or John Means and exceed what would look like a realistic ceiling. On the other hand, some will, and that means Tony would be wrong.

But he can only do what he can do. Chances are that some young guy in this org right now will exceed the ceiling that Tony estimates. Chances are that 95% won't even get there, much less exceed the ceiling.

Hell, some won't even reach their floor, unless their floor is one of the eight guys that are kept around for the real prospect to play with at A ball.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'd argue that Tony's ceiling grades are conservative in general, but appropriately so. Most of these guys aren't going to be Jamie Moyer or John Means and exceed what would look like a realistic ceiling. On the other hand, some will, and that means Tony would be wrong.

But he can only do what he can do. Chances are that some young guy in this org right now will exceed the ceiling that Tony estimates. Chances are that 95% won't even get there, much less exceed the ceiling.

I think Tony's likely future role projections are very rosy.  No offense to anyone ranked in this part of the list but their future role is probably going to be emergency callup or minor league depth.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Hell, some won't even reach their floor, unless their floor is one of the eight guys that are kept around for the real prospect to play with at A ball.

Right. 

I'm personally a big believer in player development after watching some kids for a few years. I see kids who are off and need a new approach, or to upgrade physicality, and then really take off. I see other kids that are really successful and don't really have to work for it. Those kids have a lot to gain through harder work/smarter work.

For a guy like Willems, I have to wonder if he'd fit into that latter group where his results kind of came easy. If so, it argues (to me) that he could be the type to really explode. That's just conjecture though, but a worthy example of how really any guy could theoretically come out of nowhere, get exposed to better data, coaching, physical growth, etc., and really exceed what's currently perceived as his ceiling.

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Tony's likely future role projections are very rosy.  No offense to anyone ranked in this part of the list but their future role is probably going to be emergency callup or minor league depth.

Yeah, I'm more referring to ceiling. As I said in my last post, I'm a big believer in player development. I see a great ceiling in everyone. I see things through orange colored glasses. Tony's more reasonable with his ceiling projections.

Let's all hope that Elias' player development apparatus makes Tony re-think ceiling. That would be awesome. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Tony's likely future role projections are very rosy.  No offense to anyone ranked in this part of the list but their future role is probably going to be emergency callup or minor league depth.

I don’t think that’s true where we are at nowadays. Remember we arguably have the best farm system in baseball and that is almost exclusively based on the strength of our position players.  I mean Willems is a million dollar catcher that was going to play for a big time NCAA school. Gone are the days of guys like Preston Palmeiro making this list.  We have a 20/2 CF that hadn’t even been mentioned yet. In previous years, Watson, Peralta, and Diaz would all be in our top 15-20. 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think that’s true where we are at nowadays. Remember we arguably have the best farm system in baseball and that is almost exclusively based on the strength of our position players.  I mean Willems is a million dollar catcher that was going to play for a big time NCAA school. Gone are the days of guys like Preston Palmeiro making this list.  We have a 20/2 CF that hadn’t even been mentioned yet. In previous years, Watson, Peralta, and Diaz would all be in our top 15-20. 

I don’t remember Preston Palmeiro ever making Tony’s list.