MLB Lockout Thread

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Is it going to be just the players in their last season before arbitration or all pre arbitration players, even rookies?

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Pre-arb bonus pool for the top 30 based on fWAR, I'm assuming?  That's what the owners proposed in some earlier test idea they floated.  Really would hate to be in that 25-35 range.  Just to get kind of an idea of what this will look like I ran a list of the top WAR totals for non-pitchers in 2021 for everyone 26 or younger.  The 25th is Luis Robert at 3.6, 35th is Austin Hayes at 3.1.  So a tenth of a win or less will separate those getting a bonus from those not getting one. 

I'm a WAR advocate, but in no way would I definitively state that a glove-first shortstop with 3.1 WAR is better than a pitcher with 3.0.  Fangraphs and bb-ref WAR for pitchers sometimes varies by a win or more because of the philosophical underpinnings of each model (which is a feature, not a bug).  If anyone tells you that a half a win difference between any two players is definitive you should be very skeptical.  This model is using that kind of difference to hand out potentially tens of $millions.

Wander Franco was a 3.5 win player in just 70 games because the Rays didn't want to start his clock, so JP Crawford and his 3.8 WAR in 160 games get more of a bonus.

And what happens when Statcast or BIS or someone retroactively gets better data and in 2025 the formerly 32nd-ranked player by fWAR is now 27th?

What happens when your manager uses you in relief and it would take an epic season to break into the top 30 in 60 innings, while your similarly-talented teammate starts and breaks into the top 30 and gets a bonus?

What if you're in 32nd place on September 22nd and your team decides your slightly sore hammy is a good reason to shut you down for the year?

Just a bad idea to tie money to specific metrics.  There's a reason they won't let contract say something like "$100k bonus for 100 RBI".

Not a perfect system, but its better, IMO, than saying player X deserves more money than player Y because he played 5 more games.  RBI isn't a great stat, but is it worse than PAs? 

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope you get some pleasure out of doing that sort of research. 

I do appreciate the work you do running the numbers and doing the math.

I appreciate the appreciation.  If I had more time I’d come up with a better estimate than that.   Personally I like the concept of rewarding the pre-Arb players who are significant contributors.   

[Sports Guy]

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 

He means Boras right?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He means Boras right?

Honestly, Boras would be a great union negotiator.   The guy knows how to get a deal done while getting the best deal for his client.   I don’t know about the union’s  actual negotiating team, they don’t impress me.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Honestly, Boras would be a great union negotiator.   The guy knows how to get a deal done while getting the best deal for his client.   I don’t know about the union’s  actual negotiating team, they don’t impress me.  

I don't disagree.  I can just see Boras using Heyman as a mouthpiece to interject his opinion.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't disagree.  I can just see Boras using Heyman as a mouthpiece to interject his opinion.

Undoubtedly.  

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Well now we know how Scott Boras feels.

[wildcard]

One the one hand I think raising the luxury tax is bad for competitiveness.    But if the O's follow the Tampa model what does Tampa care about the luxury tax?    Tampa wins 100 games  with a low payroll.   How much money the other teams spend means little to them.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

One the one hand I think raising the luxury tax is bad for competitiveness.    But if the O's follow the Tampa model what does Tampa care about the luxury tax?    Tampa wins 100 games  with a low payroll.   How much money the other teams spend means little to them.

I thought they were following the Astros' model?

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought they were following the Astros' model?

It varies from week to week.

[Sports Guy]

I honestly don’t care what they do with the money.  It will have zero impact on me and probably zero impact to the product.

Just get it done and stop pushing the fans to the back burner.

The PR surrounding the sport right now is dreadful.  Both sides are too stupid to get this.

[jarman86]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Just get it done and stop pushing the fans to the back burner.

Fans have been to the back burner since big tv contracts evolved. Why you think the Astros became serious about winning? They were dropped or going to be dropped from their regional sports tv network, 2012 recorded a game where the network reported 0.0 tv rating. I went down to Houston to watch the USA/Ireland rugby game and there were Astros personnel with petitions begging people to sign so Houston CSN or whatever would cover the games. 

Truth is, live sports is one of the last remnants of TV to maintain a live viewership. Advertising dollars go into networks airing sports as a result because they get a captive audience. And baseball has minimal competition in the summer. College sports aren't going on, NBA/NHL wrap up in June. MLS and rugby are picking up, but they only have two games a week really. As long as they can get more viewership than days of our lives and sports bars, etc... change the channel, the money will be there. 

[Can_of_corn]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I honestly don’t care what they do with the money.  It will have zero impact on me and probably zero impact to the product.

Just get it done and stop pushing the fans to the back burner.

The PR surrounding the sport right now is dreadful.  Both sides are too stupid to get this.

I don't think it is.  None of the baseball fans I talk to in real life are worried about the lockout.  I think it will start to hurt them if spring training is delayed (especially down here since for some of us it's our best chance to see our favorite teams) and will only make a big dent in the public if regular season games or delayed.

Most folks aren't paying attention with the NFL playoffs going on.