Ryan Mountcastle's Most Similar Batters List

[NCRaven]

In the end, I think we’ll be very pleased with his offensive production no matter where he plays.

[waroriole]

7 hours ago, NCRaven said:

In the end, I think we’ll be very pleased with his offensive production no matter where he plays.

Unless he’s a consistent .900 hitter at 1B, it’s not very pleasing. So far he hasn’t shown the patience to be able to hit at that level. 

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Unless he’s a consistent .900 hitter at 1B, it’s not very pleasing. So far he hasn’t shown the patience to be able to hit at that level. 

So your threshold is top five in MLB?

Consistently?

Tough crowd.

 

Four players put up a 900 OPS at first in 2021.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

So your threshold is top five in MLB?

Consistently?

Tough crowd.

 

Four players put up a 900 OPS at first in 2021.

Mountcastle's .335 wOBA was almost exactly league-average for a first baseman. If he's lucky he has 2-3 more years of growth and will end up being somewhat better than average.  His plate discipline will make it challenging to be a big asset, but he doesn't necessarily have to be that.  Teams win with just good players as most positions.

[emmett16]

JD Martinez looks like a best case scenario comp.  Lots of Ks not a lot of BBs.  OBP is held up by his avg. & not a solid fielder.  Martinez  increased his power output as he matured.  If Mountcastle limits Ks a bit, increases walks a bit, and hits 35+ HR I think he can flirt with .850- .900 OPS through his peak years.  

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mountcastle's .335 wOBA was almost exactly league-average for a first baseman. If he's lucky he has 2-3 more years of growth and will end up being somewhat better than average.  His plate discipline will make it challenging to be a big asset, but he doesn't necessarily have to be that.  Teams win with just good players as most positions.

This is about as accurate as it gets. Mounctastle's plate discipline or lack there of will probably keep him from being a year in and year out super star, but he's going to be an above average first baseman when it's all said and done. 

Now, if he can find a way to hit offspeed better and improve his chase rates, he'll see his average improve and that will help his OBP. People sometimes forget how young he is and that he can improve. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

This is about as accurate as it gets. Mounctastle's plate discipline or lack there of will probably keep him from being a year in and year out super star, but he's going to be an above average first baseman when it's all said and done. 

Now, if he can find a way to hit offspeed better and improve his chase rates, he'll see his average improve and that will help his OBP. People sometimes forget how young he is and that he can improve. 

I’m pretty bullish.   He seems like someone who will learn with experience. He already drew more walks this season (41) than Adam Jones ever did (his high was 39, as a 30-year old).    Even modest improvements in this area will go a long way.   He doesn’t have to be Nick Markakis when it comes to plate discipline (and he won’t be).   

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m pretty bullish.   He seems like someone who will learn with experience. He already drew more walks this season (41) than Adam Jones ever did (his high was 39, as a 30-year old).    Even modest improvements in this area will go a long way.   He doesn’t have to be Nick Markakis when it comes to plate discipline (and he won’t be).   

If he starts doing more damage in the zone he will also start to get walked more because pitchers are going to be more careful. 

[CharmCityHokie]

This might have already been suggested, and apologies if I missed it, but Mountcastle really reminds me of Mark Trumbo. Same size, same defensive limitations, same power when they connect...same plate discipline issues. Honestly if Mountcastle ends up with some Trumbo-esque years, I'll be okay with that. Once it became clear he is only viable at 1B/DH, he became less interesting to me and I hope he hits well to the point you can say "good enough".

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

This might have already been suggested, and apologies if I missed it, but Mountcastle really reminds me of Mark Trumbo. Same size, same defensive limitations, same power when they connect...same plate discipline issues. Honestly if Mountcastle ends up with some Trumbo-esque years, I'll be okay with that. Once it became clear he is only viable at 1B/DH, he became less interesting to me and I hope he hits well to the point you can say "good enough".

Yes, I think Trumbo is a good comp.  I hope Mountcastle hits .270 instead of .249, which might allow him to be a 3-win player instead of a 2-win guy in good years.  But you really have to hit extremely well to be much above average if you don't bring much to the table fielding or baserunning and you walk 40 times a year.

[emmett16]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m pretty bullish.   He seems like someone who will learn with experience. He already drew more walks this season (41) than Adam Jones ever did (his high was 39, as a 30-year old).    Even modest improvements in this area will go a long way.   He doesn’t have to be Nick Markakis when it comes to plate discipline (and he won’t be).   

I agree.  I think he makes modest incremental improvements each year.  His confident approach, how he handles success, and how he handles failure really impress me.  Makes  me think he will not be satisfied until he gets every drop of of ability out of himself.  He will be a lot of fun to watch mature over the next 3-4 years.  

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

If he starts doing more damage in the zone he will also start to get walked more because pitchers are going to be more careful. 

I think this is his ticket.  If does some more damage he’s going to get some freebies.  If he can get better on the close pitchers and get walk totals to 60-70 we will have a heck of a player on our hands.  That’s just 1 more walk per week in the grand scheme of things.  

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

This might have already been suggested, and apologies if I missed it, but Mountcastle really reminds me of Mark Trumbo. Same size, same defensive limitations, same power when they connect...same plate discipline issues. Honestly if Mountcastle ends up with some Trumbo-esque years, I'll be okay with that. Once it became clear he is only viable at 1B/DH, he became less interesting to me and I hope he hits well to the point you can say "good enough".

I don’t think Trumbo had quite the same plate discipline issues, 37.1% O-Swing% vs. 41.6% for Mountcastle.  But, I agree they are similar.   I believe Mountcastle will end up being a bit better.   

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think this is his ticket.  If does some more damage he’s going to get some freebies.  If he can get better on the close pitchers and get walk totals to 60-70 we will have a heck of a player on our hands.  That’s just 1 more walk per week in the grand scheme of things.  

An increase of 1 walk a week is a lot.  A player only gets about 25 PA per week.   

I personally don’t think doing more damage is going to change pitchers’ approach much.   They already throw him strikes only 45% of the time, which is a low number.   And they do it because he chases a lot of pitches that aren’t strikes, so why throw him strikes?

To me, you and Tony have cause and effect backwards.   If he’s choosier with his swings, he’ll do more damage, and he’ll draw more walks.   
 

[DrungoHazewood]

40 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think this is his ticket.  If does some more damage he’s going to get some freebies.  If he can get better on the close pitchers and get walk totals to 60-70 we will have a heck of a player on our hands.  That’s just 1 more walk per week in the grand scheme of things.  

It's not common for someone to start off walking in 7% of PAs and eventually get to 13% or more.  It can happen, but I think it's usually because the hitter has become really dangerous and pitchers much, much more cautious pitching to him.  Sammy Sosa, Chris Davis.

Alfonso Soriano started off walking in less than 5% of PAs. He eventually got as high as 9%, but that was in his best offensive season, and with the help of 16 intentional walks and probably quite a few intentional-unintentional walks.  His career rate ended up at 5.9%. Adam Jones, Salvador Perez, Mark Trumbo, all those guys may have improved a little, but nothing significant.