Left field at OPACY going through a big change

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, jabba72 said:

Adam Jones has by far the most HR's that I can find. It looks like maybe 55-60% cleared the new fence.

Going to be interesting to see how many of those become outs and how many end up as hits.

[jabba72]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Going to be interesting to see how many of those become outs and how many end up as hits.

Probably a diverse mix of cans of corn and liners. 

[Frobby]

David Laurila’s take:

“One of the reasons that Camden Yards has long been considered a gem is that it’s not cookie-cutter. Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium are likewise unique, as was the Polo Grounds. Conversely, many of the stadiums built in the 1970s and 1980s were ultimately deemed disappointments because they epitomized the term “cookie-cutter.”

“Camden Yards isn’t in danger of falling victim to the label. It will remain a quality venue due to its other attributes. That said, the increased neutrality will make the Orioles’ home venue a little less interesting than it’s always been. Not that pitchers will complain, mind you.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-was-ken-singleton-better-than-dale-murphy/

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

David Laurila’s take:

“One of the reasons that Camden Yards has long been considered a gem is that it’s not cookie-cutter. Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium are likewise unique, as was the Polo Grounds. Conversely, many of the stadiums built in the 1970s and 1980s were ultimately deemed disappointments because they epitomized the term “cookie-cutter.”

“Camden Yards isn’t in danger of falling victim to the label. It will remain a quality venue due to its other attributes. That said, the increased neutrality will make the Orioles’ home venue a little less interesting than it’s always been. Not that pitchers will complain, mind you.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-was-ken-singleton-better-than-dale-murphy/

Laurila asks the question:  Each was originally an extreme in terms of how the ballpark played. But is that actually a bad thing? 

In this case Elias' answer appears to be Yes.  Being an extreme hitters park has made Camden Yards  a less than attractive place to play for pitchers.    Elias has shied away from drafting pitchers in his first three draft in some part because of they are riskier to draft and develop  than position players.   His gem pitching prospects at this point of from the Duquette era. 

It seems that to fuel the turnaround in the next few years Elias will need to attract free agent pitchers.   Having a fair ball park in terms of the field dimension could help in his recruitment of the pitchers he needs.  So Yes, having an extreme hitters park was a bad thing and Elias is trying to find ways around that problem.

Don't be surprised if Elias spends some money on free agent pitchers in the near term.   Not top of the market pitchers but but 15m/yr  or less would not be out of range for the O's on short term contracts.   Improving the pen would also be a quick way to improve the teams fortunes if  Mike is following the Tampa model.   They have about 10 relievers with ERA under 4.00 and led the league in ERA.  In order  for the O's to improve some pitchers need to come of developed and some need to be acquired.  The change in the parks dimensions may help lower the ERAs.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Laurila asks the question:  Each was originally an extreme in terms of how the ballpark played. But is that actually a bad thing? 

In this case Elias' answer appears to be Yes.  Being an extreme hitters park has made Camden Yards  a less than attractive place to play for pitchers.    Elias has shied away from drafting pitchers in his first three draft in some part because of they are riskier to draft and develop  than position players.   His gem pitching prospects at this point of from the Duquette era. 

It seems that to fuel the turnaround in the next few years Elias will need to attract free agent pitchers.   Having a fair ball park in terms of the field dimension could help in his recruitment of the pitchers he needs.  So Yes, having an extreme hitters park was a bad thing and Elias is trying to find ways around that problem.

Don't be surprised if Elias spends some money on free agent pitchers in the near term.   Not top of the market pitchers but but 15m/yr  or less would not be out of range for the O's on short term contracts.   Improving the pen would also be a quick way to improve the teams fortunes if  Mike is following the Tampa model.   They have about 10 relievers with ERA under 4.00 and led the league in ERA.  In order  for the O's to improve some pitchers need to come of developed and some need to be acquired.  The change in the parks dimensions may help lower the ERAs.

I’ve always thought the impact of Camden Yards on decisions of free agent pitchers was overrated and somewhat illogical, but Elias seems to think otherwise, so who am I to argue?   And I agree that the way that Elias has stacked his development system with hitters, we are going to need to rely on FA pitchers to a heavier degree than in the past.    We’ll see how that goes.  

[Woody Held]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve always thought the impact of Camden Yards on decisions of free agent pitchers was overrated and somewhat illogical, but Elias seems to think otherwise, so who am I to argue?   And I agree that the way that Elias has stacked his development system with hitters, we are going to need to rely on FA pitchers to a heavier degree than in the past.    We’ll see how that goes.  

I agree, especially left-handed power hitters.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

David Laurila’s take:

“One of the reasons that Camden Yards has long been considered a gem is that it’s not cookie-cutter. Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium are likewise unique, as was the Polo Grounds. Conversely, many of the stadiums built in the 1970s and 1980s were ultimately deemed disappointments because they epitomized the term “cookie-cutter.”

“Camden Yards isn’t in danger of falling victim to the label. It will remain a quality venue due to its other attributes. That said, the increased neutrality will make the Orioles’ home venue a little less interesting than it’s always been. Not that pitchers will complain, mind you.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-was-ken-singleton-better-than-dale-murphy/

Less interesting?  Because homers won’t be flying out at a high rate?  That seems like a dumb take.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

David Laurila’s take:

“One of the reasons that Camden Yards has long been considered a gem is that it’s not cookie-cutter. Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium are likewise unique, as was the Polo Grounds. Conversely, many of the stadiums built in the 1970s and 1980s were ultimately deemed disappointments because they epitomized the term “cookie-cutter.”

“Camden Yards isn’t in danger of falling victim to the label. It will remain a quality venue due to its other attributes. That said, the increased neutrality will make the Orioles’ home venue a little less interesting than it’s always been. Not that pitchers will complain, mind you.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-was-ken-singleton-better-than-dale-murphy/

Yes, I'm sure it'll be a little less interesting to the visiting players who'd count on coming to town and picking up three or four homers.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve always thought the impact of Camden Yards on decisions of free agent pitchers was overrated and somewhat illogical, but Elias seems to think otherwise, so who am I to argue?   And I agree that the way that Elias has stacked his development system with hitters, we are going to need to rely on FA pitchers to a heavier degree than in the past.    We’ll see how that goes.  

I've always viewed the impact of Camden Yards as likely to be far more significant for veteran pitchers who've had some decline, or who haven't lived up to what some thought were their potential, seeking a one- (or two-) year deal that they can use to enhance their value and reputation in the next round of free agency. It seems to me completely logical that those guys, if other teams are interested in them, would choose not to turn their careers around by pitching in Baltimore (as well as the other AL East parks) with its HR tendencies from both sides of the plate and the team's weak (and in at some positions, not-yet-identified well into the off-season) defense.

It think it's more likely that better pitchers seeking multi-year contracts -- guys with the potential to help the Orioles improve -- may not want to sign with Baltimore, if they have other, comparable opportunities, more because the team has been so bad and has shown it's not in a rush to get better, and less because of the ballpark. Those pitchers and their agents may not be entirely comfortable that the task of improving a really, really bad team so that it can compete in a very strong division has fallen to a guy with no track record for building a team, and that the prospect of putting a  better team on the field seems to be unscheduled and drifting further into the future. When Elias reminds fans that it's a challenging task and that we need to be patient, there's not much we can do about that. Free agents can vote with their feet, or their pens. 

I can see where the difficulty of pitching in Camden Yards may have had a significant impact on some free agent pitchers' decisions. Assuming that Elias has offered competitive or better deals to free-agent pitchers -- and count me as dubious -- I don't know why they or their agents said they turned those offers down, let alone what the real reasons were. I suspect that if a free-agent pitcher with other options hasn't want to sign with the Orioles, it's been easier for his agent, in talking to Elias, to stress the ballpark's challenges rather than the extended crappiness of the team and a lack of confidence that Elias can create a contender in the next couple of years.

 

[Just Regular]

The way Elias talked about Camden HR that are flyball outs in 28 or 29 other parks I did a spot check on Trey Mancini's career splits (kudos Trey for nailing 1266 PA exactly home and road career to date).

278/342/496 vs 263/323/448

AL DH's were 240/317/437 last year.

 

[Ripken]

Jordan Lyles approves.

[forphase1]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve always thought the impact of Camden Yards on decisions of free agent pitchers was overrated and somewhat illogical, but Elias seems to think otherwise, so who am I to argue?   And I agree that the way that Elias has stacked his development system with hitters, we are going to need to rely on FA pitchers to a heavier degree than in the past.    We’ll see how that goes.  

I'm not sure about it being illogical, but I'm not sure how much of an impact it makes.  IF you were a top flight pitching free agent, you likely have numerous teams you could sign with, the Orioles among them.  Unless Baltimore was willing to overspend, which certainly hasn't been case lately outside of Chris Davis and maybe Trumbo, why go to a team where your numbers will be inflated due to the ballpark?  Sure, those in the 'know' are smart enough to adjust for park variables when evaluating talent, but I'm confident 99 out of 100 pitchers would rather the back of their baseball card to read a 3.50 ERA instead of a 3.90 ERA, or it to show they only gave up 15 home runs instead of 25.  It may not matter a great deal, but when a pitcher is evaluating two similar contracts, those sort of things could be the deciding factor.  And I certainly don't have any idea how much we'd have to overpay to overcome those objections.  If a pitcher were were interested was deciding between Baltimore or another team, both offering say 3/45M, how much above that would we have to go to entice that player?  I'm not sure the answer, and of course it may vary from player to player.  At the end of the day I think it only matters in the margins, so to speak, but those margins can sometimes make a big difference.  Clearly its a great enough issue that we were willing to make a change, and I'm sure it's not exactly cheap, even if the money isn't coming directly from the Orioles.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I'm not sure about it being illogical, but I'm not sure how much of an impact it makes.  IF you were a top flight pitching free agent, you likely have numerous teams you could sign with, the Orioles among them.  Unless Baltimore was willing to overspend, which certainly hasn't been case lately outside of Chris Davis and maybe Trumbo, why go to a team where your numbers will be inflated due to the ballpark?  Sure, those in the 'know' are smart enough to adjust for park variables when evaluating talent, but I'm confident 99 out of 100 pitchers would rather the back of their baseball card to read a 3.50 ERA instead of a 3.90 ERA, or it to show they only gave up 15 home runs instead of 25.  It may not matter a great deal, but when a pitcher is evaluating two similar contracts, those sort of things could be the deciding factor.  And I certainly don't have any idea how much we'd have to overpay to overcome those objections.  If a pitcher were were interested was deciding between Baltimore or another team, both offering say 3/45M, how much above that would we have to go to entice that player?  I'm not sure the answer, and of course it may vary from player to player.  At the end of the day I think it only matters in the margins, so to speak, but those margins can sometimes make a big difference.  Clearly its a great enough issue that we were willing to make a change, and I'm sure it's not exactly cheap, even if the money isn't coming directly from the Orioles.

I think Baltimore playing their home games in...well...Baltimore hurts their chances at free agents more than where the outfield wall is.

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Baltimore playing their home games in...well...Baltimore hurts their chances at free agents more than where the outfield wall is.

Yeah, I'm sure that's a large part of it too.  I never said the stadium was the ONLY holdup preventing pitchers from signing here, just that it's probably A factor, though certainly not the largest one in my opinion.  I've been offered jobs with similar pay at other companies, and in cases like that its often the benefits and creature comforts that end up helping to decide which job to take, as the checkbook numbers were roughly the same.  Quality of life, work environment, freedom/flexibility, etc all come into play.  It certainly doesn't surprise me in the least that the stadium, and the subsequent impact on stats/numbers, does play a role, even if a small one.  Certainly other factors weigh more heavily, but at least this one is something the Orioles can at least partly address.  They can't change the city where the home games are played, at least not until the move to Nashville!  (joking of course, but....)

[spiritof66]

This may be over-the-top wishful thinking, but just as Camden Yards ushered in a revolution in ballpark design accentuating intimacy and field asymmetry, I am hoping that this adjustment will lead other teams to consider expanding their playing fields, and that in the next five years or so expansion of some fields, along with other changes in the game, will lead non-sluggers to focus more on hitting line drives and less on launching the ball over the wall.