Correa (Update, signs with Twins)

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Great for Mateo but how is that dodging a bullet?

Oh no, we almost signed a guy to a probable one year deal that is having a superior season.

I don’t know about superior. I’d say slightly better. 
 

It’s only a one year deal if Correa has a good year and opts out. He might stay in that deal. 

[waroriole]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Great for Mateo but how is that dodging a bullet?

Oh no, we almost signed a guy to a probable one year deal that is having a superior season.

We’d lose developing Mateo into a solid ML SS. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t know about superior. I’d say slightly better. 
 

It’s only a one year deal if Correa has a good year and opts out. He might stay in that deal. 

And?   If he produces 4.4 rWAR per year, he earns his salary.  He’s on pace to do that this year.  He’s only 27, and he’s exceeded 4.4 rWAR four times in the past.  He’s got a very solid chance to be worth every penny of his contract if he doesn’t opt out.   

Now, if Mateo could produce two more seasons like this one at Arb 1 and Arb 2 prices, I might prefer to have Mateo and spend the extra cash on other needs.   But it’s not like Mateo has a track record of high level performance.  So, we’ll see how he does.  

[sportsfan8703]

Yeah, I’ll stick with Mateo for 1/50th the cost. Literally, 1/50th this season. 

[Frobby]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Yeah, I’ll stick with Mateo for 1/50th the cost. Literally, 1/50th this season. 

I think the point wasn’t about Mateo so much as “dodging the bullet” with Correa.  You don’t dodge a bullet when you don’t sign a good player who earns his contract.   You dodge a bullet when you don’t sign a guy who then grossly underperforms somewhere else.  Kind of like the Tigers dodged a bullet when they didn’t sign Chris Davis.   

Maybe if we’d signed Correa we wouldn’t have signed Odor and Mateo would be the everyday 2B.  We might be in a WC spot if we’d done that, who knows?
 

[interloper]

Pass.

[Just Regular]

Mike Elias' evaluation of Jorge Mateo this offseason is going to be interesting.    In all good ways, I have no strong sense who Jorge Mateo is from here.

The 2023 offseason seems clear it will be the high water mark of the Orioles financial flexibility, and the 10 best Orioles are doing a fine job showing players of Proven Excellence here is a promising enough spot to be the next several seasons.

Mile-high I do think picking the SS over the CF for the long long term maybe tilts the arrow away from Correa/Dansby towards 1-year Ohtani and/or FA Rodon on a major power drive for the contract of a lifetime.    

[casadeozo]

comparing the 2x players they are pretty similar as close in age, strong defense, similar power.

It seems the biggest difference is Correa's great plate discipline to Mateos aggressive approach (45/21 BB's, 87/115 K's)

Is this something that historically can be improved or do we think Mateo is this type of player going forward? Wondering this especially as we have a glut of middle infield prospects with strong patient approaches at the plate.

[NCRaven]

I don’t recall us offering him the same deal that Minnesota did.  I don’t think having him this year would have made a significant difference.  Are the Twins in front of us? 
 

 I know it can change but as of now, I would be a happy GM with the way it turned out.  And I know some luck was involved.  But, I assume that Elias made his offer, wouldn’t exceed the value that the analytics placed on Correa, and was willing to live with the results.  

[DrungoHazewood]

51 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

comparing the 2x players they are pretty similar as close in age, strong defense, similar power.

It seems the biggest difference is Correa's great plate discipline to Mateos aggressive approach (45/21 BB's, 87/115 K's)

Is this something that historically can be improved or do we think Mateo is this type of player going forward? Wondering this especially as we have a glut of middle infield prospects with strong patient approaches at the plate.

Plate discipline tends to get better throughout a player's career, but it's exceedingly rare for someone with 21 walks and 115 Ks to become someone who walks a lot and really controls the strike zone.  It would be a win if Mateo ever had 50 walks and just 130 strikeouts in a season.

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Great for Mateo but how is that dodging a bullet?

Oh no, we almost signed a guy to a probable one year deal that is having a superior season.

Because we would have never have given Mateo a chance to play SS every day. Whether Mateo is longterm SS here or not is for debate with Henderson, Ortiz and Holliday in the system, but at worse he's become a nice trade chip. 

 

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Because we would have never have given Matteo a chance to play SS every day. Whether Matteo is longterm SS here or not is for debate with Henderson, Ortiz and Holliday in the system, but at worse he's become a nice trade chip. 

 

And we saved $35million.

[Frobby]

On 8/24/2022 at 7:14 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

Carlos who?  Glad we dodged that bullet. 
 
Carlos Correa 3.3 WAR

Mateo 2.9 WAR

Less than four weeks later: 

Correa 4.9 rWAR, 4.1 fWAR

Mateo 3.0 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR

[Just Regular]

The Twins seem to have gone belly up, despite Correa having an amazing September.

Yankees Kiner-Falefa getting pricey in Arb, Dodgers Trea on expiring contract.    Trevor Story is battling "heel pain" but I think he'll be okay to take on Red Sox SS if Xander departs.

Mateo, Gunnar and Holliday have increased our SS options a lot both short and long term, so Correa's lower on the Tejada-rooted favorite daydream list of things that might have some small chance of actually happening.    

Our high minors depth has a good chunk of the 26 Opening Day roster positions covered, especially Bats, and it will be interesting to see what jobs Elias finds for the tool of money.    I heard recently Edwin Diaz could be pitching himself towards becoming the first $100mm reliever (the Diaz-Kelenic trade has aged pretty well for the Mets).

I feel like generally on pitching the Luhnow's Houston teams spent like Moreno in general - the Best, or Nothing.     The Orioles should put their noses in there on Verlander, deGrom, Diaz....Rodon makes me nervous though he's controlling all he can to maximize his window.      The Bassitt-Manaea level guy (or Pablo if by trade) we'll still do cartwheels and backflips if we get is appreciably better than Lyles, but still not anyone where in a first round playoff series I wouldn't be antsy to get Bryan Baker into the game in the 4th or 5th inning.