Joey Ortiz 2022

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree with Fangraphs. That's a very accurate analysis of Westburg. His athleticism and quickness makes him have the ability to move and play adequate defense around the infield. I think he could be a plus 2B, but I think his arm would make him just adequate at 3B because he would struggle to make those plays where a plus arm is needed.

He also has pretty good hands overall. But I'd disagree with anyone thinks that he has a plus arm. He has maybe a 50 arm for 2B, 40 arm for SS, 45 for 3B. 

Good to know.  I didn’t know that arm grades varied by position.   I thought if you were a 50, you were a 50, and that might dictate where you play but wouldn’t change depending on positions.    This is useful in interpreting the grades.

I did see 1-2 highlight plays of Westburg at 3B where his arm looked pretty solid to me.  But of course judging from highlights is not an accurate approach.  

[jdwilde1]

On 10/7/2022 at 6:04 PM, RZNJ said:

I have seen neither play extensively on defense.  I think it's been clear from reports that Ortiz is considered a plus defensive SS at the ML level and possibly an elite 2B.    Westburg has been considered "adequate" at SS and perhaps average at 2B.   We've heard many conflicting reports on Westburg's arm.   I've seen it described anywhere from a 50 (average) to a 60 (plus).    No doubt that Mateo at SS and Ortiz at 2B, along with Henderson at 3B, gives you the best potential defense with plus to possibly elite defense at all 3 positions.

In addition to Henderson, Mateo, and Ortiz, add in Mountcastle’s improving defense at first (above average in OAA and Rfield in 2022) and Adley at catcher.  The O’s could have one of the best defensive infields in the league.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, jdwilde1 said:

In addition to Henderson, Mateo, and Ortiz, add in Mountcastle’s improving defense at first (above average in OAA and Rfield in 2022) and Adley at catcher.  The O’s could have one of the best defensive infields in the league.

I think that's definitely possible.   I think Mountcastle has improved to average.

[RZNJ]

Buck Britton in an October 5 article in Baseball America.

 

"He had a really good year, so he’s another guy who’s now on the radar, big time, with a special glove," Britton said. "And you’re looking at a guy who maybe hits 15, 20 homers in the big leagues and he plays an elite shortstop, an elite second—wherever they put him.”

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Buck Britton in an October 5 article in Baseball America.

 

"He had a really good year, so he’s another guy who’s now on the radar, big time, with a special glove," Britton said. "And you’re looking at a guy who maybe hits 15, 20 homers in the big leagues and he plays an elite shortstop, an elite second—wherever they put him.”

Comments like this that make me think the O's value him more than the market.  I know some of it is/could be gamesmanship/"what else should they say" marketing when it comes to our guys.  But I get the impression that it's more than that with Ortiz.  It just feels different compared to (say) Westburg or Norby.  

It's not a "flagship"-level comment but it's still "big time"!

[LookinUp]

On 10/17/2022 at 3:45 PM, btdart20 said:

Comments like this that make me think the O's value him more than the market.  I know some of it is/could be gamesmanship/"what else should they say" marketing when it comes to our guys.  But I get the impression that it's more than that with Ortiz.  It just feels different compared to (say) Westburg or Norby.  

It's not a "flagship"-level comment but it's still "big time"!

I'd wager the market is ahead of, or at least more informed, than the prospect lists. Don't forget that Ortiz started the year cold after missing a lot of last year to injury. There's no way he was going to ascend up mid-season lists. His prospect status definitely improved a lot since then. It's just a matter of how much.

I still hear people talk about him like he's going to be mostly a glove first guy. I can't wait to hear what Tony thinks because I think he profiles as an average to above average offensive player at SS or 2B at this point, which makes him a clear first division starter. Hopefully I'm right.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

 

I still hear people talk about him like he's going to be mostly a glove first guy. I can't wait to hear what Tony thinks because I think he profiles as an average to above average offensive player at SS or 2B at this point, which makes him a clear first division starter. Hopefully I'm right.

Depends on what you mean by “mostly a glove first guy.”   If you mean, a player whose most outstanding trait is his glove, then I think that label fits.  If you mean, a player with an above average glove but a below average bat, I think the jury’s out on that one.   There’s little question that Ortiz showed major improvement with the bat this year, either because the affects of his shoulder surgery waning and/or tweaks he made to his swing and approach.  Does that carry over to the major leagues?   Hopefully yes, but we’ll have to see.   

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends on what you mean by “mostly a glove first guy.”  

I've heard him referred to as similar offensively to Mateo. I think he'll be better, but am waiting on people who know more to weigh in.

[btdart20]

56 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'd wager the market is ahead of, or at least more informed, than the prospect lists.

Yeah, no doubt.  Ultimately, the prospect lists don't really matter to teams until it's time to communicate with the fans.  They likely "monitor" those types of lists for ideas or whatever, but teams don't make/shouldn't be making decisions on public prospect lists.

I think the O's value him more than the other orgs do.  It's not to say he's "untouchable" but that we would ask for more in return that the other organizations would be willing to give in return. 

 

38 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I've heard him referred to as similar offensively to Mateo. I think he'll be better, but am waiting on people who know more to weigh in.

Beyond the plus defense, I don't think they are that similar. 

One stat that I think the O's need to be focusing on is OBP.  Clearly not a strength of Mateo that favors Ortiz (at least so far).  Plus, Ortiz seems to have more power (in his SSS).  It's tough to compare their MiLB stats because of age, park/league, SSS, etc... but I will anyway!  Just narrowing it down to AA and AAA (since Mateo was a 17 when he started in professional baseball journey).

Mateo

AAA (2 seasons age 23/24) - 1076 PA - .262/.306/.433 (46 2B, 30 3B, 22 HR, 49 SB, 21 CS) - 284/58 K/BB (4.897) MLB K/BB is 213/37 or 5.757 K's per BB) - 49 PAs per HR.  23 PAs per 2B.  (His AAA stats are in the PCL for reference.)

AA (1 season age 22) - 287 PA - .296/.357/.521 (14 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 24 SB, 10 CS) - 65/24 K/BB (2.708) - 36 PAs per HR.  20 PAs per 2B.

Ortiz

AAA (1 partial season age 23) - 115 PA - .345/.400/.567 (7 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 1 CS) - 17/9 K/BB (1.889)  - 28 PAs per HR.  16 PAs per 2B.

AA (2 partial seasons age 22/23) - 552 PA - .265/.334/.457 (30 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, 3 SB, 1 CS) - 95/47 K/BB (2.021) - 29 PAs per HR.  18 PAs per 2B.  (This includes pre-injury as well for what that's worth.)

[RZNJ]

Ortiz is a very different hitter than Mateo. 

1. Ortiz contact rates are far superior 

2. Ortiz is very happy to try and drive the outside pitch to RF whereas Mateo very rarely drives the ball to RF. 

3. I'm not sure Orriz will walk a lot but he also doesn't seem like he'll chase nearly as much as Mateo.

4.  Their power may be similar.  Mateo might even have an edge in raw power but Ortiz probably taps into his power more often.  

 

[Frobby]

Mateo strikes out way more often than Ortiz.  I’ll be very surprised if Ortiz doesn’t substantially outperform Mateo in BA and OBP.  SLG might be different.   

[Tony-OH]

Ortiz will be a superior player to Mateo in everything but speed. Maybe Mateo gets a slight edge in range, but Ortiz will commit less errors.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ortiz will be a superior player to Mateo in everything but speed. Maybe Mateo gets a slight edge in range, but Ortiz will commit less errors.

In that case, we should just trade Mateo and hand Ortiz the keys.  I was thinking about this just now: Houston let Carlos Correa walk after a 7.2 rWAR season and handed SS over to a rookie.  How much did it hurt them?   Mateo is nowhere near as good as Correa, and we will get something decent for him in exchange, so I don’t think trading him and going with Ortiz is anywhere near as risky as the Correa/Pena maneuver was, so long as you believe in Ortiz. 

[MurphDogg]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In that case, we should just trade Mateo and hand Ortiz the keys.  I was thinking about this just now: Houston let Carlos Correa walk after a 7.2 rWAR season and handed SS over to a rookie.  How much did it hurt them?   Mateo is nowhere near as good as Correa, and we will get something decent for him in exchange, so I don’t think trading him and going with Ortiz is anywhere near as risky as the Correa/Pena maneuver was, so long as you believe in Ortiz. 

I just don't know what kind of return the Orioles could expect for Mateo. 

I would be comfortable trading him if other teams valued him as a 3+ WAR shortstop, but my instinct is that they wouldn't get a ton of value for him, and if so I would be fine keeping him as an insurance policy and an overqualified utility infielder / pinch runner when Ortiz is ready.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In that case, we should just trade Mateo and hand Ortiz the keys.  I was thinking about this just now: Houston let Carlos Correa walk after a 7.2 rWAR season and handed SS over to a rookie.  How much did it hurt them?   Mateo is nowhere near as good as Correa, and we will get something decent for him in exchange, so I don’t think trading him and going with Ortiz is anywhere near as risky as the Correa/Pena maneuver was, so long as you believe in Ortiz. 

Jeremy Pena is a good example of what Ortiz good be. When I watch Pena, i see a lot of Ortiz in him. Pena only had 133 PAs under his belt when the Astros made him their starting shortstop while letting their superstar SS go.

I don't think there is any doubt Ortiz can be as good as Pena both offensively and defensively if he's given the job next year.