Gunnar Henderson 2022

[SilverRocket]

Quote

Mitchell W. 24m ago

If you're Mike Elias and decide you want to field the best possible Orioles team for the rest of the season without trading any prospects of material value, how would you do it? Bring up Gunnar Henderson and DL Hall? Simply stand pat and not trade any of the spare veteran parts?

Keith Law 4m ago

@Mitchell W. Bring up Gunnar for sure. Hell, bring him up no matter what. I don't see the downside - if they're thinking they're holding him down until May of next year they are putting $$ over development to a harmful extent. I can see arguments either way on DLH, though.

 

From Keith Law's Q&A: https://theathletic.com/3466129/2022/08/01/keith-law-mlb-prospects-trade-deadline/

[luismatos4prez]

Gunnar has already spent about equal time in Norfolk as he did in Bowie. With almost equal success. Mike has already implicitly declared that 200 PAs is enough of a sample to deem a player ready for promotion.

It's time.

[waroriole]

If Gunnar gets called up this year, it’s with less than 45 days left in the season so he can retain his rookie status next year. Look for late August as a possibility. 

[Brooks The Great]

37 minutes ago, waroriole said:

If Gunnar gets called up this year, it’s with less than 45 days left in the season so he can retain his rookie status next year. Look for late August as a possibility. 

Exactly. I think Elias wants to have a few shots at extra draft picks in 2024 by having one or more players place in the top 3 of the AL ROY voting next season. Gunnar, Grayson, Hall and maybe Stowers (if he's not promoted over the next day or two), Westburg (if promoted after late August) or Cowser (if promoted early enough in 2023) would give us a great chance at multiple picks.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Exactly. I think Elias wants to have a few shots at extra draft picks in 2024 by having one or more players place in the top 3 of the AL ROY voting next season. Gunnar, Grayson, Hall and maybe Stowers (if he's not promoted over the next day or two), Westburg (if promoted after late August) or Cowser (if promoted early enough in 2023) would give us a great chance at multiple picks.

I think that he's more likely to be worried about losing the year of team control and would rather delay their debut like he did with Adley.

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

If Gunnar gets called up this year, it’s with less than 45 days left in the season so he can retain his rookie status next year. Look for late August as a possibility. 

I was under the impression that it was 45 pre-September 1st days, but that rule actually changed in 2020 to count September days due to the shortened season and they decided to continue counting September days going forward.

So August 23rd is the first day that a player could be called up, remain active for the rest of the season, and still retain their rookie eligibility for next season.

[Brooks The Great]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that he's more likely to be worried about losing the year of team control and would rather delay their debut like he did with Adley.

I think keeping the extra year of team control plays a part, but I think teams (including the Orioles) are more so going to value getting an extra pick by having players that can help them win on the Opening Day roster. All of those players I listed qualify. I think Adley would have started out on the Opening Day roster for that reason. And other teams clearly valued the chance for the draft pick this season, which is why JRod and Witt started out on their team's OD rosters. In years past, both players would have been held down an extra 2-4 weeks.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Brooks The Great said:

I think keeping the extra year of team control plays a part, but I think teams (including the Orioles) are more so going to value getting an extra pick by having players that can help them win on the Opening Day roster. All of those players I listed qualify. I think Adley would have started out on the Opening Day roster for that reason. And other teams clearly valued the chance for the draft pick this season, which is why JRod and Witt started out on their team's OD rosters. In years past, both players would have been held down an extra 2-4 weeks.

But it's more than one year.

You can either start them off on the ML roster or you can delay them long enough that you get the 7th year and sabotage their ROY chances.

That's five years versus 6.5 years.

Obviously we saw this seasons that a lot of teams are going to value the draft pick. 

I don't think the Orioles are going to be one of those teams.  Elias appears to be more concerned about service time.  Have we seen any young players getting extensions?

[Brooks The Great]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

But it's more than one year.

You can either start them off on the ML roster or you can delay them long enough that you get the 7th year and sabotage their ROY chances.

That's five years versus 6.5 years.

Obviously we saw this seasons that a lot of teams are going to value the draft pick. 

I don't think the Orioles are going to be one of those teams.  Elias appears to be more concerned about service time.  Have we seen any young players getting extensions?

I think the Orioles are going to value the pick, especially next season when we have multiple shots at more than 1 pick.

I got questioned a few months ago when I told posters on the minors board that Gunnar Henderson would be a consensus top 25 prospect on all the prospect lists for the mid-season updates, and I told them the same thing I'll tell you. Watch. Henderson, Rodriguez, Hall, Westburg and Stowers will all be on the Opening Day roster next season barring injuries. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Brooks The Great said:

I think the Orioles are going to value the pick, especially next season when we have multiple shots at more than 1 pick.

I got questioned a few months ago when I told posters on the minors board that Gunnar Henderson would be a consensus top 25 prospect on all the prospect lists for the mid-season updates, and I told them the same thing I'll tell you. Watch. Henderson, Rodriguez, Hall, Westburg and Stowers will all be on the Opening Day roster next season barring injuries. 

What have you seen from Elias that makes you think that?

What has he done to this point?

I'm not declaring you wrong but what's the thought process that leads you to this conclusion?

 

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that he's more likely to be worried about losing the year of team control and would rather delay their debut like he did with Adley.

We can never know for sure how things would have played out but from all the talk leading into ST my impression was Adley was going to start in Baltimore.  Once he got hurt the extra pick was no longer a possibility the next best thing was to take a shot at gaining an extra year. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, geschinger said:

We can never know for sure how things would have played out but from all the talk leading into ST my impression was Adley was going to start in Baltimore.  Once he got hurt the extra pick was no longer a possibility the next best thing was to take a shot at gaining an extra year. 

Yea, my impression was that he was going to hold him back from the get go.

Not sure what lead you to that impression.  Was it something Elias said that I missed?

[geschinger]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, my impression was that he was going to hold him back from the get go.

Not sure what lead you to that impression.  Was it something Elias said that I missed?

Nothing as explicit as we plan on him being the OD catcher but he said multiple times the decision would be merit based and he had a chance to open with the club.

When I hear him interviewed he often mentions probabilities and odds.  With a player like Adley the odds of earning an extra pick were pretty good.  The odds of getting the extra year were/are far from a sure thing.  I think there is a decent chance he gets a full year of service time even coming up when he did.  JRod seems to have ROY locked up but whose behind him - Pena and Witt Jr?  I could easily see him catching them if he plays the rest of the year like he did in July.

 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Nothing as explicit as we plan on him being the OD catcher but he said multiple times the decision would be merit based and he had a chance to open with the club.

 

 

He also said that about Grayson and sent him down after two innings of work. 

He also said that Hall would be spending "much" of the season in the majors.

I don't think you bring a Chirinos on board if you are planning on having Adley be your opening day starter.

Everything we've seen from him has him being very concerned about service time. 

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He also said that about Grayson and sent him down after two innings of work. 

He also said that Hall would be spending "much" of the season in the majors.

I don't think you bring a Chirinos on board if you are planning on having Adley be your opening day starter.

Everything we've seen from him has him being very concerned about service time. 

 

Chirinos and Rutschman are sharing the catching duties now.   Surely it was the plan at some point whether that was April or May or June.    Why would it make any difference in signing Chirinos?