Which player would you be most/least excited about?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A team’s job is to make good picks and sign everyone they pick, if possible.  If one team does a good job of negotiating and saves $200 k against its cap, and another team just caves to the players and spends $400 k over its cap, should I feel like the second team did a better job in the draft because they went over the cap?

Here’s what I care about: results at the major league level.   Literally nothing else.  

This is true unless you are take guys who aren’t worthy of overslots and then you turn around and say, we were savvy negotiators and saved money.  
 

If you don’t go for the best talent, you don’t have to spend the money.  That’s a fairly simple point.  So, a lot of it depends on that.

[SpOkane]

If the final standings are similar to today's standings, the Orioles would have about $9 million in next year's pool, unless of course they get lucky in the lottery and get another top 5 pick.

With this hopefully their last year of high draft pools excluding luck, it behooves them to maximize this draft. That includes pushing up against the 5% overage limit. One strategy is to go BPA the first ten rounds and spend the allotment and then take a few flyers on HS players in 11-20 range and see if one bites on the overage funds.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is true unless you are take guys who aren’t worthy of overslots and then you turn around and say, we were savvy negotiators and saved money.  
 

If you don’t go for the best talent, you don’t have to spend the money.  That’s a fairly simple point.  So, a lot of it depends on that.

Right, and I don’t disagree.   My point is a humble one: I don’t know who’s more talented than who.  Different teams have different opinions on that.  And different players have different ideas of their own value.   You can have two equally talented guys, one of whom is anxious to begin his pro career and another is happy to go to college if his demands aren’t met.  So the fact that one cost more than the other doesn’t necessarily mean teams thought the more expensive guy was better.  I don’t know enough to parse it all.   I just hope we choose well and root for our guys to prove that we did.   And maybe in 7-10 years I’ll know how it came out.   

[Moose Milligan]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A team’s job is to make good picks and sign everyone they pick, if possible.  If one team does a good job of negotiating and saves $200 k against its cap, and another team just caves to the players and spends $400 k over its cap, should I feel like the second team did a better job in the draft because they went over the cap?

Here’s what I care about: results at the major league level.   Literally nothing else.  

Well said.  CoC's continued gripe about not spending every last dollar of the pool money is a bit odd, but whatever.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, SpOkane said:

If the final standings are similar to today's standings, the Orioles would have about $9 million in next year's pool, unless of course they get lucky in the lottery and get another top 5 pick.

With this hopefully their last year of high draft pools excluding luck, it behooves them to maximize this draft. That includes pushing up against the 5% overage limit. One strategy is to go BPA the first ten rounds and spend the allotment and then take a few flyers on HS players in 11-20 range and see if one bites on the overage funds.

Not enough money to spend to go BpA for 10 rounds.  They can do it for like 4-6 picks, which is fine.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well said.  CoC's continued gripe about not spending every last dollar of the pool money is a bit odd, but whatever.

Dude, I was being quiet about it until someone stated that all the money would be spent.

They have not shown that all money will be spent.

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A team’s job is to make good picks and sign everyone they pick, if possible.  If one team does a good job of negotiating and saves $200 k against its cap, and another team just caves to the players and spends $400 k over its cap, should I feel like the second team did a better job in the draft because they went over the cap?

Here’s what I care about: results at the major league level.   Literally nothing else.  

Isn't part of doing a good job of negotiation being able to correctly predict the money that will be required and to maximize the funds they have available?

If you save 200K on your picks doesn't that also mean that you could have at some point used that 200K to pick a more promising player?

In your hypothetical if the two teams picked the same players and one spent more than yes, the team that spent less did a better job.  If the team that spent another 600K got the superior talent I'd say they did the better job.

Draft money is worth way more on a per dollar basis than free agent money.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Isn't part of doing a good job of negotiation being able to correctly predict the money that will be required and to maximize the funds they have available?

If you save 200K on your picks doesn't that also mean that you could have at some point used that 200K to pick a more promising player?

In your hypothetical if the two teams picked the same players and one spent more than yes, the team that spent less did a better job.  If the team that spent another 600K got the superior talent I'd say they did the better job.

Draft money is worth way more on a per dollar basis than free agent money.

I don’t know how exactly they are able to predict how much it will take to sign a player.   Either they have a deal in place, or they know what a player has said he’ll sign for, but it certainly seems a good bit of negotiation takes place once the draft is over.   Would love to have more insight into this than I do.

[Moose Milligan]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Dude, I was being quiet about it until someone stated that all the money would be spent.

They have not shown that all money will be spent.

TeH HaVeNt SpEnT AlL TeH MoNiEzzzzz WaT R wE GunNA do?!?!?!111

[Jammer7]

So, let’s say the Orioles take Druw Jones at 1-1. The fans are elated. All is well. Let’s say Jones does not sign and goes on to Vandy. I believe we would still get pick #2 in 2023. We lose the ability to spend a large portion of our pool, roughly half. How do you feel about that?

Personally, I doubt he turns down $8.3 million. There are rumors out there that his number is $10 million. Jones obviously has money from his dad, so who knows. From all of the things I’ve read and heard on pods, the industry does not seem to think Jones will need full slot at 1-1.

The big question about saving money and taking Termarr Johnson is who are the potential targets we supposedly need to save money for later in the draft? Then, will they be there when we pick? This draft is supposed to be rich in HS pitching beyond round 1, according to Joe Doyle of Prospects Live. That is the riskiest demographic as well. A lot of talk about the college pitchers coming off injuries. None of those guys should need big over slot deals. There are some interesting position players available around 33 and 41 as well, like Peyton Graham, Cayden Wallace and Jacob Melton.

Cade Horton was a guy that I wanted at pick 41 before the College World Series. Then, he went and dominated. His stock jumped. So, he should be gone before we pick at 33. And he will want an over slot to come out early as a sophomore. 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Jammer7 said:

So, let’s say the Orioles take Druw Jones at 1-1. The fans are elated. All is well. Let’s say Jones does not sign and goes on to Vandy. I believe we would still get pick #2 in 2023. We lose the ability to spend a large portion of our pool, roughly half. How do you feel about that?

Personally, I doubt he turns down $8.3 million. There are rumors out there that his number is $10 million. Jones obviously has money from his dad, so who knows. From all of the things I’ve read and heard on pods, the industry does not seem to think Jones will need full slot at 1

 

I think that if his number is 10M he's going to be disappointed.

Would he go to Vandy or go to a CC so he can reenter the draft next year?

Would he be a draft eligible Sophomore?

I don't think he gets more money in a later draft than he would get in 2022.

[seak05]

There are things I like, and things that give me pause about all the top guys, but I’ll probably be excited about any of them. What I’m really hoping is that there are also guys to be excited about later in the draft. With how unpredictable mlb drafts really are I think you need a pool of players and then hope a couple pan out.

FTR if they have the top guys rated as closely as some of the trade publications do, but there is a big diff in cost, I’m fine with underslot. I would be disappointed if they have say Jones rated much further ahead, and went underslot anyways 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, seak05 said:

There are things I like, and things that give me pause about all the top guys, but I’ll probably be excited about any of them. What I’m really hoping is that there are also guys to be excited about later in the draft. With how unpredictable mlb drafts really are I think you need a pool of players and then hope a couple pan out.

FTR if they have the top guys rated as closely as some of the trade publications do, but there is a big diff in cost, I’m fine with underslot. I would be disappointed if they have say Jones rated much further ahead, and went underslot anyways 

Don't worry, they'd never admit it. 

No team would.

[RZNJ]

If Jones doesn’t agree to number before the draft the Orioles won’t select him. Simple as that. If he’s asking for 10 it’s either because they want to settle at 9 or full slot.  OR the d-backs have told Boras they’ll do 10 or 9.5 or whatever at 1:2.  If Boras plays hardball the Orioles pass.  And if the D-Backs take him and pay him 1:1 slot or higher, are the subject to being investigated for shenanigans or is all fair in love and draft.  The Orioles did something similar with Fabian last year so ……

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

If Jones doesn’t agree to number before the draft the Orioles won’t select him. Simple as that. If he’s asking for 10 it’s either because they want to settle at 9 or full slot.  OR the d-backs have told Boras they’ll do 10 or 9.5 or whatever at 1:2.  If Boras plays hardball the Orioles pass.  And if the D-Backs take him and pay him 1:1 slot or higher, are the subject to being investigated for shenanigans or is all fair in love and draft.  The Orioles did something similar with Fabian last year so ……

Why would they have an investigation?

 

 

I'm all for players using whatever leverage they can muster to get the most money or the landing spot they desire.