Trade Deadline Primer/Thread

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

BB-ref likes our odds better, at 15.1%.  
BP has us at 10.8%.   
 

Got it.

Not trying to frame the argument, I just use Fangraphs as my default for that.

I wouldn't worry about trading pieces like we are discussing at those rates either.

Ultimately the goal isn't to make the wild card game.

[maybenxtyr]

Whatever they get back in trade is important, but having opportunity for the MiL guys is just as important. 

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Did I say anything about getting him for Mancini and Mancini alone?

You did not, in fairness. 

[WietersCorner]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Got it.

Not trying to frame the argument, I just use Fangraphs as my default for that.

I wouldn't worry about trading pieces like we are discussing at those rates either.

Ultimately the goal isn't to make the wild card game.

I think we both agree on the ultimate goal. I believe that a real chance at playing meaningful games in September with the potential for playoff experience will go very far in helping achieve that. The young core in the majors will look back at this experience when they are going for it all in 2023, 2024, +. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, WietersCorner said:

I think we both agree on the ultimate goal. I believe that a real chance at playing meaningful games in September with the potential for playoff experience will go very far in helping achieve that. The young core in the majors will look back at this experience when they are going for it all in 2023, 2024, +. 

I think getting some of the young players in the minors into the majors will go very far in helping achieve that.

[RVAOsFan]

Would this take them out of play for Mancini?

[oriole]

23 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yeah, I was comparing Vientos to Stewart before he was promoted. Maybe Vientos has a little better resume, but he's RH. Even if he brings some additional tools the question is where does he ever play for us? I guess I'd rather keep the bullpen arm and reduce my ask for Trey.

Stewart reached AAA at 24, Vientos is there at 22. Plus, he can back up 3B, LF, and 1B if necessary…though admittedly it sounds like he should not be the first choice for any of those positions.

 

Dont get me wrong, I’m not like clamoring for the O’s to land him. I just think he’d be a solid return for Mancini and Tate and I’d prefer him over some of the pitching that the Mets have to offer. 

 

 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Got it.

Not trying to frame the argument, I just use Fangraphs as my default for that.

I wouldn't worry about trading pieces like we are discussing at those rates either.

Ultimately the goal isn't to make the wild card game.

Didn’t think you were framing anything.   BB-ref only added a playoff odds page in the last couple of weeks, I think.   BP used to be my go-to site for playoff odds, but I rarely visit that site anymore because 90% of their content is behind a paywall (not the playoff odds page, though).   So Fangraphs is where I would have looked first.  Their odds are pretty reliant on ZiPS and Steamer projections that didn’t like the Orioles’ players when the season began so they tend to discount actual performance to date more than the other systems.   

Incidentally, on the Fangraphs page you linked, they have three different “projection modes” (see the left side of screen above the standings).   The first is called Fangraphs and has us at 2.3%.   The second is called “season to-date” and has us at 24.7%.   The third is called “coin flip” and also has us at 24.7%.   The three methods are cursorily explained if you click on “more information” on the top right of the screen.   

So, there’s a lot of ways to look at what our odds really are right now.   And that clouds the decision making process a bit.  Sig probably has his own model blasting out odds as we speak.   
 

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I am looking at the Mets prospects list and just not excited by anything there. We are already deep in OF and set for the future at C. I guess I would do Mancini and Tate for Allan but aside from that I don't see what they have that helps us in any way, even long term.  

My guess is that Elias will be looking for traits more than performance or rankings. That means the return in any given trade might be underwhelming to us noobs at first glance. 

[Roll Tide]

46 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Would this take them out of play for Mancini?

I doubt it as they have 3 catchers on the roster including McCann he’s hitting just over .200 with a .550 OPS and 2 back ups that are sub .200 hitters with OPS numbers under .500. 

[btdart20]

33 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I doubt it as they have 3 catchers on the roster including McCann he’s hitting just over .200 with a .550 OPS and 2 back ups that are sub .200 hitters with OPS numbers under .500. 

I think the complete opposite and that's exactly why they're looking at Contreras.  McCann is currently on the IL and they've been trotting out Tomas Nido (a 28 y/o "vet" with 622 PA and a .208 BA over his 6 year career).  Plus Contreras won't block Alvarez next year.

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think the complete opposite and that's exactly why they're looking at Contreras.  McCann is currently on the IL and they've been trotting out Tomas Nido (a 28 y/o "vet" with 622 PA and a .208 BA over his 6 year career).  Plus Contreras won't block Alvarez next year.

Neither will Mancini and did you see McCann’s stats that I posted? He’s been horrible!

[btdart20]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Neither will Mancini and did you see McCann’s stats that I posted? He’s been horrible!

But Mancini can't play C.  They can use an offensive catcher.  And Contreras is top shelf offensively and can DH if they really want one of those other scrubs catching/hitting.

[Just Regular]

Odds-wise, a chunk of the fun right now is the happy uncertainty how many 2021 Giants type things might be in the 2022 Orioles.     ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer are all going to say what they'll say, and most of it is the Orioles are horrible, especially the pitchers.

Pitching Spenser Watkins against Shane McClanahan tonight is really asking a lot of your analysts, but you gotta play the games.

I think NYY-TB represent about the best the AL has to offer outside HOU, and today's Orioles are 3-4 recently against the group, with worse opponents ahead.     I still don't have a feel for whether TOR doing the midseason manager move is a decent course correction, or panic suggesting wobbly confidence in the foundation.   Kikuchi, Berrios, even Gausman some, haven't been that great.     B-Ref thinks Urias and Mateo are outplaying Chapman and Bichette.    I wouldn't hope to pitch to that lineup the 15 games with some of the guys we are throwing out there now, but we don't have to either.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Just Regular said:

Odds-wise, a chunk of the fun right now is the happy uncertainty how many 2021 Giants type things might be in the 2022 Orioles.     ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer are all going to say what they'll say, and most of it is the Orioles are horrible, especially the pitchers.

Pitching Spenser Watkins against Shane McClanahan tonight is really asking a lot of your analysts, but you gotta play the games.

I think NYY-TB represent about the best the AL has to offer outside HOU, and today's Orioles are 3-4 recently against the group, with worse opponents ahead.     I still don't have a feel for whether TOR doing the midseason manager move is a decent course correction, or panic suggesting wobbly confidence in the foundation.   Kikuchi, Berrios, even Gausman some, haven't been that great.     B-Ref thinks Urias and Mateo are outplaying Chapman and Bichette.    I wouldn't hope to pitch to that lineup the 15 games with some of the guys we are throwing out there now, but we don't have to either.

I think Tampa is going to struggle, they just keep getting injured.

Pretty amazing they've managed as well as they have.

I think the Jays have a run in them.