Do you believe the O's will call up Henderson this season?

[MurphDogg]

Matt Riley peaked at #15 prior to 2000.

Adam Loewen peaked at #14 prior to 2004.

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os had a highly ranked system leading up to the 2012-2016 run.

The talent level in our system right now (and Adley) seems to be better than those years but we don’t have the on field results with those guys yet.

Seems like we should be liking their chances but what they do to bring in outside talent will make a difference, one way or another.

Maybe it's just hindsight cause we know how some of those guys panned out, but the guys we have now just seem a lot more legit.  

[foxfield]

Hearing that we might go shopping this off season is one of the most exciting pieces of news in awhile.  Although....many of us will remain skeptical until it is proven....and rightfully so.  But as @Sports Guy says above, we are going to have to bring in outside talent to augment this group and it should be a higher level than what we have seen in the past.....will it?  We will see...but the time is now.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Maybe it's just hindsight cause we know how some of those guys panned out, but the guys we have now just seem a lot more legit.  

I don’t disagree but they did produce a lot from that team.

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Maybe it's just hindsight cause we know how some of those guys panned out, but the guys we have now just seem a lot more legit.  

That's because they haven't had a chance to fail at the major league level yet.

[Alasdaire]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Wieters. 

"Mauer with Power."

[baltfan]

55 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Maybe it's just hindsight cause we know how some of those guys panned out, but the guys we have now just seem a lot more legit.  

In general we have a lot more top 50 and top 25 guys than in the last era.

[SilverRocket]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The system is set up so that teams can capture extra value by leaving players in the minors some additional amount of time.  It is not always intuitively obvious and correct that the path to take is to ignore that extra value to try to win a little more right now.  A month of an MVP-level performance, which is rarely what a rookie provides, is worth perhaps a single WAR.  But delaying that debut might mean an entire extra year of a high quality player, either on the Orioles or as trade value.

How much does the calculus change because of the rule where the top-2 ROY finishers get service time credit for the whole year?  And the rule where the ROY top-3 nets the team an extra draft pick, if the player was on the roster on opening day? If Gunnar is the favorite for ROY, there's some risk that delaying him nets the team nothing, and maybe even costs a pick, in addition to two months of his performance.

There's also the 40-man roster crunch in the offseason that's a factor. But the better a prospect Gunnar gets and the better shot of him being top-2 ROY, the less it makes sense to keep him down.

[maybenxtyr]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Baseball America released their updated top 100 prospects list today and Henderson is #1 overall. How many organizations have ever graduated the #1 overall prospect and a couple months later had someone else move into the #1 overall prospect slot?

This is like calling up Manny in 2012, and in September another Oriole was the best prospect in baseball.  The 1982-2011 Orioles would go 10 years between prospects of this caliber. Even that's being generous.  The only guys close to that level in the 30 years after Cal were Mussina, Markakis, and Manny.  Cowser might actually be on the Markakis level, so you could argue the 2023 Orioles might have three young talents as good as anyone they developed from the 80s through the 2000s.

I didn't go back and look at their rankings but Strasburg and Harper were pretty close. 

[interloper]

Well, he will not be up today, in case anyone was wishing on a Promotion Monday. They released a roster move and it was just swapping Sulser for Louis Head. 

[ManciniFan]

Just now, interloper said:

Well, he will not be up today, in case anyone was wishing on a Promotion Monday. They released a roster move and it was just swapping Sulser for Louis Head. 

We wanted Gunnar, we got Head….insert jokes. To me, you gotta pull the trigger on Stowers here at a min. Nevin corresponding move. 

[geschinger]

5 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I didn't go back and look at their rankings but Strasburg and Harper were pretty close. 

Close indeed, Strassburg was #2 in 2010 and Harper #1 in 2011. 

[interloper]

It's stunning just how much of a problem Rougned Odor is in terms of ideal roster construction. Whatever positives he's provided, it's time for Elias to remember that he's good at silencing his heart with his head.

Without Odor on the roster, you can:

Play Vavra at 2B, opening up a DH spot for Santander, which opens up an OF spot for Stowers.

You can then option Nevin and bring up Henderson to play 3B full-time. 

Santander/Adley share 1B backup duty. Urias can play there too I'm sure. Who cares anyway? 

OR

Keep Odor but leave him on the bench, option Nevin, bring up Henderson or Stowers, whichever you want. 

[DrungoHazewood]

41 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

How much does the calculus change because of the rule where the top-2 ROY finishers get service time credit for the whole year?  And the rule where the ROY top-3 nets the team an extra draft pick, if the player was on the roster on opening day? If Gunnar is the favorite for ROY, there's some risk that delaying him nets the team nothing, and maybe even costs a pick, in addition to two months of his performance.

There's also the 40-man roster crunch in the offseason that's a factor. But the better a prospect Gunnar gets and the better shot of him being top-2 ROY, the less it makes sense to keep him down.

ROY is a fickle thing.  Some years a 1-win player wins it, sometimes a 4-win player doesn't.  In '86 Wally Joyner (3.2 WAR) was 2nd, Mark Eichhorn (7! WAR) third.  Other years Todd Hollandsworth or Chris Coughlan win with ~1 WAR seasons.  You can't really count on that, ROY voting is such a weird metric to use.

[Frobby]

From a Ben Clemens chat on Fangraphs today:

Do we see Gunnar Henderson in the majors this year?

Ben Clemens

Given his injury, I don't think so

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-8-8-22/

Either I missed some big news, or Clemens had a brain fart and thought the question was about Grayson Rodriguez.