What is the real reason for our off season?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

He was part of St Louis and Houston organizations and has approached the rebuild with same methodology .. i will wait for the results of the next three seasons and see.   
All GMs have budgets.. this is not unique to Baltimore. Do I wish he had more resources? Who doesn’t.. but I will speculate that he is more competitive than you think he is and at least is not actively looking to be Toronto’s President. .. yet

It's great that you are speculating that.

I just don't like when something of the sort is stated as a fact.

[MijiT88]

I just want the offseason to be over so we can watch the young kids play and win games and everyone can eat crow at how they demanded 10 free agent signings this offseason

[tntoriole]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's great that you are speculating that.

I just don't like when something of the sort is stated as a fact.

I never know any facts.  Only idle speculation.  It is a fan’s lot in life. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I saw Dontrelle Willis' name trending on Twitter and my first thought was the Orioles are showing interest in him given all the pitchers they missed out on in free agency.

Was relieved to find out it was related to a tweet about the original Marlins logo by MLB.com. 

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Pickles said:

Wait, you think Kluber is in another class than Gibson?

That's silly.

Kluber is clearly the better pitcher.

[connja]

I genuinely feel that the Orioles are preparing to be sold.   while at the end of the season he thought he woudl have the resources, as discussions of selling have progressed he is now being asked not to do anything of any length or consequence.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, connja said:

I genuinely feel that the Orioles are preparing to be sold.   while at the end of the season he thought he woudl have the resources, as discussions of selling have progressed he is now being asked not to do anything of any length or consequence.  

That would be an explanation for only signing one year contracts with free agents. 

[NCRaven]

7 hours ago, waroriole said:

Povich, McDermott, and Baumler have no bearing on this team. None of them will pitch for Baltimore this year. 

I said it was a big year on the farm for them.  My point is that behind Rodriquez and Hall, there is more pitching for ‘24 and beyond.

[wildcard]

There is something that does not jive here at least to me.

To me it was clear that Elias went into the winter meetings actively courting the 2nd tier starters.   He was talking to Bassitt and Taillon about 3 year deals IMO.   He didn't  get them because he did not think Bassitt was worth 21m per for 3 years.   He was not willing to go a four years on Taillon.  He may have bid as much or more for Snydergaard but the Dodgers were a more attractive choice then the O's at 1/13.

If I really believe that on December 4th Elias was pitching 3 year deals to starters I can't hang the not spending on ownership.

Elias/Holt/Sig believed they had replaced Lyles with Gibson on Dec 4th going into the meetings.  That gave them a safe place to go for a better starter at the meetings. It was a planned approach to the off season IMO.

Givens, McCann and Politi are all depth moves that follow a logical approach to the off season.

Though they were talking to Frazier just after free agency began in November, pulling the trigger on that signing on December 14th looks like a change in approach after realizing how expensive the market has been this off season.  With Urias and Westburg ready to cover 2nd and Ortiz coming soon the signing of Frazier looks like creating a surplus to trade from.  How that will play out is still TBD.

The signing of Gibson, Frazier, Givens and McCann to one year deals with prospects probably ready for the majors this year does seem like any of those 4 could be traded at the deadline.  Probably to deepen the farm system.

Just my thoughts.

[LA2]

5 hours ago, connja said:

I genuinely feel that the Orioles are preparing to be sold.   while at the end of the season he thought he woudl have the resources, as discussions of selling have progressed he is now being asked not to do anything of any length or consequence.  

If that really were the case, they wouldn't have even signed Gibson and Frazier. I think that's pretty clear.

[LA2]

I think also that Elias is trying to avoid being next season's 2022 Tigers and Rangers.

[SemperFi]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is something that does not jive here at least to me.

To me it was clear that Elias went into the winter meetings actively courting the 2nd tier starters.   He was talking to Bassitt and Taillon about 3 year deals IMO.   He didn't  get them because he did not think Bassitt was worth 21m per for 3 years.   He was not willing to go a four years on Taillon.  He may have bid as much or more for Snydergaard but the Dodgers were a more attractive choice then the O's at 1/13.

If I really believe that on December 4th Elias was pitching 3 year deals to starters I can't hang the not spending on ownership.

Elias/Holt/Sig believed they had replaced Lyles with Gibson on Dec 4th going into the meetings.  That gave them a safe place to go for a better starter at the meetings. It was a planned approach to the off season IMO.

Givens, McCann and Politi are all depth moves that follow a logical approach to the off season.

Though they were talking to Frazier just after free agency began in November, pulling the trigger on that signing on December 14th looks like a change in approach after realizing how expensive the market has been this off season.  With Urias and Westburg ready to cover 2nd and Ortiz coming soon the signing of Frazier looks like creating a surplus to trade from.  How that will play out is still TBD.

The signing of Gibson, Frazier, Givens and McCann to one year deals with prospects probably ready for the majors this year does seem like any of those 4 could be traded at the deadline.  Probably to deepen the farm system.

Just my thoughts.

WC I'm going to disagree with your thoughts, at least the last sentence-those are my thoughts exactly, something just doesn't add up.  I too believe there will be a trade, likely Mateo-so many contending teams looking for a SS. 

The more I look at it there is a huge disconnect between revenue and payroll, by my scratch pad calculation the Orioles are one of the most profitable teams  in baseball (between 4-10).  I like the attached as a model, it's 3 years old but doesn't include revenue sharing (or Disney) or corporate income and expenses (from personal experience the O's suck at corporate Yankees among others are very good-I don't have a clue what expenses other than payroll and rent are but would guess the O's are on the very low end). 

I don't subscribe to the theory that payroll is on hold to make the team more attractive to be sold, the type of 1 and 2 year deals discussed have no absolutely no material affect.  Recent franchise sales also discount that theory.  There is a huge disconnect, I just don't see it.

https://www.morssglobalfinance.com/major-league-baseball-finances-what-the-numbers-tell-us/

[Moose Milligan]

8 hours ago, MijiT88 said:

I just want the offseason to be over so we can watch the young kids play and win games and everyone can eat crow at how they demanded 10 free agent signings this offseason

Who demanded 10 free agent signings?

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

There is something that does not jive here at least to me.

To me it was clear that Elias went into the winter meetings actively courting the 2nd tier starters.   He was talking to Bassitt and Taillon about 3 year deals IMO.   He didn't  get them because he did not think Bassitt was worth 21m per for 3 years.   He was not willing to go a four years on Taillon.  He may have bid as much or more for Snydergaard but the Dodgers were a more attractive choice then the O's at 1/13.

If I really believe that on December 4th Elias was pitching 3 year deals to starters I can't hang the not spending on ownership.

Elias/Holt/Sig believed they had replaced Lyles with Gibson on Dec 4th going into the meetings.  That gave them a safe place to go for a better starter at the meetings. It was a planned approach to the off season IMO.

Givens, McCann and Politi are all depth moves that follow a logical approach to the off season.

Though they were talking to Frazier just after free agency began in November, pulling the trigger on that signing on December 14th looks like a change in approach after realizing how expensive the market has been this off season.  With Urias and Westburg ready to cover 2nd and Ortiz coming soon the signing of Frazier looks like creating a surplus to trade from.  How that will play out is still TBD.

The signing of Gibson, Frazier, Givens and McCann to one year deals with prospects probably ready for the majors this year does seem like any of those 4 could be traded at the deadline.  Probably to deepen the farm system.

Just my thoughts.

1) You aren’t getting anything of real value for those guys at the deadline.

2) there is zero indication Elias had any 3 year deals on the table.  We know he had multi year deals. We don’t know that they were 3 years.

3) This offseason is a combo of how Elias is going to operate most offseasons, how ownership is cheap and how Elias misread the market.

 

 

[Orioles0615]

10 hours ago, MijiT88 said:

I just want the offseason to be over so we can watch the young kids play and win games and everyone can eat crow at how they demanded 10 free agent signings this offseason

Ah yes watch the young kids play. Just like year when the young kids were delayed and delayed getting called up and then we watched Odor, Aguliar, and Nevin play. 

I fully expect more of the same this year. I am not looking forward to watching Fraizer, Franchy Cordero, and Mazara play. Hell I am still not convinced they don't pull some vodoo BS and have Grayson Rodriguez start in AAA because of his "injury" 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Orioles0615