What’s your optimistic case/pessimistic case for the 2023 O’s

[Frobby]

I think this is going to be a fascinating season for the O’s, in that there’s a pretty drastic difference between the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios that could occur.   

First and foremost is the pitching.  We haven’t made any big acquisitions, and there are warning signs that last year’s staff overachieved and is likely to regress at least a little.   But, I can’t say that’s certain to happen.  We’ve got an enormous wild card in Grayson Rodriguez, a guy with huge upside in DL Hall, and two guys who are both promising and scary in Kremer and Bradish.   I’m really interested to see what Holt and Holmes can do with this staff.   This will be the first time since 2016 (and only the second time since who knows when) that we’ve had the same major league coaching staff for three years in a row.   They floundered a bit in their first year, were highly successful in their second.   Was that second year the beginning of a trend, or a random fluke?    Our staff doesn’t have an established ace, or even a certain no. 2-3 type, but I can’t say there’s no potential there.   A team ERA in the top half of the league wouldn’t shock me, nor would an ERA very close to the bottom (as many have predicted).

I don’t think the offense will be as variable.   I see it as mildly upgraded from last year.   But, the position players were extraordinarily healthy last year, so just an average injury year could rob the offense of some of its potential.  On the positive side, it will be fun to see how Adley and Gunnar progress, and how the other younger players contribute.

So, I’m going to say I see scenarios where the pitching takes another significant step forward, the offense improves somewhat, and the O’s win 90-93 games.   But it’s equally possible that the pitching takes a half-step backwards, the offense stagnates, and this is a 72-75 win team.  

That is a ton of variation in possible outcomes, but that’s kind of how it is in baseball, especially for teams with a lot of younger players.  

 

[waroriole]

It’s a pretty big variance between the two. I’d say optimistic case is 90-95 wins. We see continued improvement from the SP, and one of Adley or Gunnar takes a step towards MVP caliber. Would probably also need a bounce back from Mountcastle or Hays, unless Stowers steps up. 
 

Pessimistic case is they take a big step back from last and end up around 70 wins. This is possible even with Adley and Gunnar taking the next step. It would just require the expected regression from the pitching and none of the other young guys stepping up. 

[Moose Milligan]

Best case:  105 wins, sweep the Yankees in the playoffs on route to winning a World Series over the Dodgers.  

Worst case:  1988 team looks like the '27 Yankees.  All of our prospects turn out to be terrible players.

The truth is somewhere in the middle.

[maybenxtyr]

90 wins if the pitching from last season was legit plus Grayson.

 

75 if the pitching falters.

 

Outside of losing Gunnar or Adley I think they can plug in a guy from the prospect list and keep the offense and defense respectable.

 

I know there will be a prediction thread coming, but as of 1/12/23 I'm going with 81 wins on the season.

[btdart20]

Put me down for 75 as the low and 91 as the high.  I'm much more confident in our offensive floor than the pitching side of the team.

[Sports Guy]

I mean, this is pretty obvious, no?

Best case is that the young players turn into major contributors, we get TOR type contributions from GRod and Hall and the vet players stay healthy and perform at the level we expect.

Worst case is that doesn’t happen, guys aren’t healthy, young guys don’t develop and the sitting on our prospects this offseason causes them to see value decline and our assets, which look great now, look far worse in a year.

Whatever the record is, it will depend on the progress of the young talent (the most important thing) and the health/performance of the vets. 
 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

19 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Outside of losing Gunnar or Adley I think they can plug in a guy from the prospect list and keep the offense and defense respectable.

I agree with this.

[oriole]

The optimistic outlook is very good. Rodriguez could be a TOR starter, Rutschman could be a MVP candidate, Henderson ROY candidate, Mullins could trend towards his 2021 numbers…even lesser things like Frazier returning to around 100 OPS+ type of guy, Mountcastle escaping his bad luck streak…I could go on and on. There’s just a lot to be positive about because none of what I said is particularly outlandish. 
 

Of course, the same could be said in the pessimist direction too. Injuries, difficulty adjusting to the majors, regression since last years team did play over their head a bit. I like the optimist outlook better though.

Ill go with 90 wins as the optimist and 70 wins as the pessimist. 

[Aristotelian]

Optimistic case: Gunnar, Grayson, and Frazier/Westburg add about 10 WAR, soft schedule adds a couple wins, everyone else treads water on a net basis with some outperforming and some regressing. That gives us 95 wins and one of the top wild cards. Anything can happen in a short series, so we win it all.

Pessimistic case: I am not a pessimist. 

[Aristotelian]

^One more thing for the optimistic case. Once established as contenders at the all star break, we make a big trade for a TOR. 

[Jagwar]

Optimistic case - 90+ wins and make it to the ALCS

Pessimistic case - Only 70 wins due to mucho lost games due to injury.  

[LookinUp]

I know this is the ML board, but the other part of the best case would be to see 1) Elias' approach to pitching in the minors start to produce legit future starters and 2) (related) the international guys to start to mature and really produce in full season ball.

[wildcard]

I think Holt develops an ace or two.   Bradish looked real good in the 2nd half.  Kremer had a 3.23 ERA for the year.  Grayson could pitch like an ace for 100+ IP.   Means comes back strong.   Pen is deep.   They have the pitching and the defense.

For me the offense is the question mark.  Adley and Gunnar will lead.

I don't think 92 wins is optimistic.  Its realistic.   Optimistic is the O's runaway with the division and win the WS.

There is no worse case.  This team has depth ready to step in.

Edited January 12, 2023 by wildcard

[owknows]

Optimistic. 93 wins. Playoff baseball. Henderson ROY.

Pessimistic 92 wins. Playoff baseball. Henderson ROY

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

I don't think 92 wins is optimistic.  Its realistic.   Optimistic is the O's runaway with the division and win the WS.

There is no worse case.  

This may be the most wildcard thing ever said.