Jackson Holliday 2023

[btdart20]

It’s odd to me that people think any of this is about ego.  Or that people think others think it’s about ego.

Jackson can easily get full time PAs with games at 2B and SS just like he’s done all season.  He’s not blocked by those guys as good as they are in their own right.

Mayo can get more 1B and OF time.  Norby can get more OF time.  All have the DH option.

The priority position each play at the org is built around flexibility, hitting style, skills weighting, and team need.  The 1.1 top prospect in baseball doesn’t have to play SS everyday to start.  There’s much more nuance than what our individual narratives like to believe.  Especially for forward-looking, data-driven teams.

The last months/weeks of the season will be interesting as we prepare for the postseason and head into the offseason.

[emmett16]

That was his 3rd (5h) game this season. He’s also had 2 (4h) games, 4 (3h) games, and 20 (2h) games.   29 multi hit games in all. 1/3 of his 87 games this year.  Incredible.  

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nobody really doubts that he’s our top prospect by far.  But that’s because of his bat.  Where he should play defensively depends on where he will be of most value to the Baltimore Orioles, based on both his talents and the talents of the other players on the team.  Not based on what is “best” for him personally.  Those two things may coincide, but the may not.   

I have never been an advocate of placing the individual over the team. It is very possible that he is not the SS of the Baltimore Orioles now/whenever he comes up or ever. Right now, there is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON to move Gunnar Henderson off of that position IMO. He is the best combination of offense and defense that we have to play there. 

However, there is no reason to believe that Holliday can't play 2B. He has the arm, range, hands, footwork and athleticism. AND he will give us (the team) great value at that position with the combination of offense and defense that he can provide. There are very few teams in the AL that have 2B who are good offensive players.

[Paul in Virginia]

Apologies if this was already posted:

 

 

 

[Jagwar]

First of all... I'm in awe of the numbers Holliday has put up. 

My question... with his batting stance, does he seem to pull off the plate somewhat? Does it make him vulnerable to pitches located on the outer half?

[scarey1999]

54 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

First of all... I'm in awe of the numbers Holliday has put up. 

My question... with his batting stance, does he seem to pull off the plate somewhat? Does it make him vulnerable to pitches located on the outer half?

From the games I’ve watched (probably about 20 of them total), he seems to have excellent plate coverage to the other side.  He takes the ball the other way with natural ability and ease, and on several occasions with authority.  I’ve seen several hard hit balls off the left or left center wall and a couple of oppo taco shots on balls that were on the outer half of the plate. 

[PsychoBird68]

14 hours ago, Ripken said:

 

Quote

While he is really playing great, there is some luck going on.  Watch those 5 hits here.  3 fairly hard ground balls that found holes, an infield dink, then finally elevated something and hit a triple off the wall.  It wouldn't have taken much for that to be a 1-5.

I see it different, I see a guy with a 70 hit tool putting the ball where they're not playing to get on base and then driving the ball when he had runners on base...The dink was the only lucky hit I seen........ 

[Alasdaire]

17 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Holliday is now at a .453 BABIP in AA. He was .405 in A+. I’m not sure what to make of this…there is an element of running a high BABIP that is skill based on your batted ball profile, which particularly shows up in the minor leagues (where BABIP is higher anyway) when a guy is over qualified for that level.

But still, Holliday’s insane AA performance is really fueled by BABIP. 10.3 BB% and 17.9 K% and a .214 ISO are exceptional for a 19 year old at AA, but those don’t scream “he’s ready for AAA or MLB now” the same way his 185 wRC+ does.

The thing is that his BAbip is always high. He hasn't posted a BAbip below .400 at any of the three levels he has played at this year. When a player consistently posts a high BAbip, it doesn't hold much explanatory ability to reason that they're just permanently lucky (not saying you're doing that).

[Alasdaire]

Also this running narrative from people where they watch a clip of Jackson's hits one night and say "well they wouldn't be hits in the MLB" holds no water whatsoever in my view.

That's a fantasy hypothetical that isn't reflective of reality. The fact is that he's taking the pitches that are actually thrown to him and putting the bat to the ball and spraying it all over the field.

It reminds me of people saying that the strikeouts Grayson was getting during his stint in Norfolk this year wouldn't be strikeouts in the majors. Well, he wasn't pitching in the majors. He was pitching in Norfolk. To real batters in a real game that he was really trying to get out.

It would be one thing if the profile otherwise raised concerns, ie if you had concerns about the bat speed. But that's not the case with Jackson whatsoever. He's doing what needs to be done based on the situation presented to him, and he looks great doing it.

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

The thing is that his BAbip is always high. He hasn't posted a BAbip below .400 at any of the three levels he has played at this year. When a player consistently posts a high BAbip, it doesn't hold much explanatory ability to reason that they're just permanently lucky (not saying you're doing that).

That’s the thing - part of BABIP is skill based on the xBA of the balls you’re hitting and part is luck. And in the minors the defense and fields are worse so BABIPs are higher, and a guy who is way above his competition can run a batted ball profile that is better than anybody can do in the majors. 

With the still very limited number of ABs it’s hard to know how much is luck vs skill right now for Holliday and how that will translate. It’s pretty safe to think he’s going to be a high BABIP type. But nobody is really going to do better than a ~.350 BABIP in the majors over a large multi-year sample, that’s about Arraez / Bichette level. 

[RZNJ]

For as great a hitter as he’s been so far, he does step in the bucket.  You wouldn’t expect it at all from someone who grew up in baseball and has had access to top hitting coaches.   Obviously, he’s doing pretty well with what got him this far.

I do think once ML defenses account for his hit tendencies that the batting average will come down significantly.    That’s where the adjustments to getting the ball into the air more and getting to that pull side power become more important.   

[Just Regular]

Here are the BABIP leaders this decade...just scanning the top dozen or so:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=12,d

Freeman, Bichette, N. Lowe, Goldschmidt, Bryce are guys who smash the ball with tremendous consistency.

T. Anderson and Trea are guys whose legs probably help a lot.

Solano and Arraez are the line drive masters.

I'd guess for now Holliday has more of Ingredient 2 and 3, and then how far Ingredient 1 grows as he gets to all his man strength influences how much of a monster he becomes.

We just saw Castillo and Kirby in 48 hours - it might be that in the opening round.     We just saw our lineup vs. Castillo and Kirby - does it help or hurt the odds to roll the dice?

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

For as great a hitter as he’s been so far, he does step in the bucket.  You wouldn’t expect it at all from someone who grew up in baseball and has had access to top hitting coaches.   Obviously, he’s doing pretty well with what got him this far.

I do think once ML defenses account for his hit tendencies that the batting average will come down significantly.    That’s where the adjustments to getting the ball into the air more and getting to that pull side power become more important.   

Yeah that's exactly what I meant. I'm wondering if when he gets to the bigs, and sees more high 90s / 100 mph outside fastballs, is "stepping in the bucket" going to pose a problem for him? 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 8/12/2023 at 8:11 AM, CaptainRedbeard said:

Holliday is now at a .453 BABIP in AA. He was .405 in A+. I’m not sure what to make of this…there is an element of running a high BABIP that is skill based on your batted ball profile, which particularly shows up in the minor leagues (where BABIP is higher anyway) when a guy is over qualified for that level.

But still, Holliday’s insane AA performance is really fueled by BABIP. 10.3 BB% and 17.9 K% and a .214 ISO are exceptional for a 19 year old at AA, but those don’t scream “he’s ready for AAA or MLB now” the same way his 185 wRC+ does. 

Regardless, absolutely not a single red flag in his profile. Could easily argue that he’s already exceeded Adley and Gunnar as prospects. He’s going to be a stud. Only question is when. 

Elias & team deserve tons of credit for identifying Holliday as their guy and sticking to it when the industry pretty much consensus thought Druw Jones was a slight cut above. Could have completely changed the trajectory of the franchise for the next 5-7 years. 

Does Jackson have some kind of elite bat skills where he is hitting the ball in the direction he wants?  Is he able to frequently place the ball between fielders?  It just seems like something else is going on besides just luck.

[OriolesMagic83]

14 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

Apologies if this was already posted:

 

 

 

How was Shohei ever a prospect?  Tell me about his time in the minors.  Where is Bryce Harper on this list?