Jordan Westburg 2023

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, geschinger said:

None of this matters if Elias isn't going to be allowed to implement the plan and I have to think he'd leave.  He'll have plenty of opportunities elsewhere.

I think someone regarded as a plus defender who has performed at a high level offensively in AAA has a great chance to produce more than a guy with a sub .700 OPS over 4 years in MLB.  Is it guaranteed?  Of course not.  He could get hurt, he could be a bust but if I was a betting man, my money would be on Ortiz being more productive.  

You mention other guys like Leiter and ask if I think he's a potential ace.  No, I don't think the odds are good that he is.  But those aren't my expectations for JW or JO either. I'm not expecting either to be a superstar.  I'm expecting they will be more productive than Mateo and Urias.

Ok that's fair. But you still didn't answer many of my other questions like what is your interpretation of John Angelos' Opening Day comments on Adley? How did you understand his tone and overall underlying message? How do you merge that with the org's past offseason, when everybody knew that we had a gigantic hole in the starting pitching department and we filled it in the cheapest way possible. Like do you think that Gibson and Irvin were the best we could do? Do you think that they are really who Elias targeted or do you believe (like I do) that Angelos interfered with Elias initial plans or at least shortened his budge significantly? Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are part of NO ONE'S "lift off".

Yes I believe that if Angelos doesn't pivot off of his approach, then it is almost sure that Elias will leave and look for other opportunities with better/more supportive ownership as soon as he can. And I also believe like you suggested that he will have options/other suitors. I'm not really all that convinced (based on the comments of Angelos) that he actually cares all that much.

To your point about how players perform offensively at AAA that has little correlation to Major League success. Look at Tyler Nevin's numbers at AAA, look at Varva's numbers at that level, look at Stowers numbers there. If that was a major determining factor or correlation to Major League success, those guys would have come up and crushed it and obviously none has/did.

I get that Mateo and Urias haven't produced a crazy high bar of all-star caliber play. But they are both currently good to solid Major Leaguers. And there is absolutely no guarantee of the guys with the pedigree that you site exceeding what both of them are giving us. And my contention it is necessary to risk/gamble on that proposition.  

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Ok that's fair. But you still didn't answer many of my other questions like what is your interpretation of John Angelos' Opening Day comments on Adley? How did you understand his tone and overall underlying message?

I don't put much stock into owner interviews.  If you google Jim Crane's interviews or Reiter's book about the Astros his take on contracts contains similar rhetoric.  But they did start spending in 2017.  

As for an Adley extension, I'd love to know if they've had any discussions.  He's a tough case as if he wants to maximize his career earnings, he cannot sign an extension unless it's a massive premium over other typical pre-arb extensions or Julio Rodriguez-type extension.  His age and position necessitate that he be a FA at 29 if he wants a good chance at a massive second contract.  It isn't going to happen for him if he signs say an 8 year extension and is reaching free agency as a 33 year old catcher.

What happened in free agency didn't bother me as I don't think that was a case of Elias wanting to do something and being overruled.  I believe Elias and SId lean on analytics and have modeled performance and past FA contracts and have a number (years and/or dollars) that they don't want to go past and if bidding exceeds that, they are done.  They don't strike me as undisciplined.  

Here is where I become concerned - in July the Orioles are in a similar position in the standings that they are now and are unwilling be a buyer and take on payroll at the trade deadline. 

Nevin's OPS was about .200 lower than Ortiz and .300 lower than Westburg at the same age.  Nevin's 450 AB in AAA in 2021 seems like it was a good indicator.  Stowers and Vavra have not been given a chance.  They need to play regularly and get acclimated before a judgement can be made.  If Ortiz or Westburgh would be given the Stowers treatment at the MLB level I'd rather they remain in Norfolk.

Edited May 16, 2023 by geschinger

[Bemorewins]

44 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I don't put much stock into owner interviews.  If you google Jim Crane's interviews or Reiter's book about the Astros his take on contracts contains similar rhetoric.  But they did start spending in 2017.  

As for an Adley extension, I'd love to know if they've had any discussions.  He's a tough case as if he wants to maximize his career earnings, he cannot sign an extension unless it's a massive premium over other typical pre-arb extensions or Julio Rodriguez-type extension.  His age and position necessitate that he be a FA at 29 if he wants a good chance at a massive second contract.  It isn't going to happen for him if he signs say an 8 year extension and is reaching free agency as a 33 year old catcher.

What happened in free agency didn't bother me as I don't think that was a case of Elias wanting to do something and being overruled.  I believe Elias and SId lean on analytics and have modeled performance and past FA contracts and have a number (years and/or dollars) that they don't want to go past and if bidding exceeds that, they are done.  They don't strike me as undisciplined.  

Here is where I become concerned - in July the Orioles are in a similar position in the standings that they are now and are unwilling be a buyer and take on payroll at the trade deadline. 

Nevin's OPS was about .200 lower than Ortiz and .300 lower than Westburg at the same age.  Nevin's 450 AB in AAA in 2021 seems like it was a good indicator.  Stowers and Vavra have not been given a chance.  They need to play regularly and get acclimated before a judgement can be made.  If Ortiz or Westburgh would be given the Stowers treatment at the MLB level I'd rather they remain in Norfolk.

Thanks for sharing your perspective!

I see now that we have completely different views on a lot of things and that is okay.

One place that I sincerely hope that you are wrong is if Gibson and Irvin, or even Frazier for that matter, were Elias number 1 intended targets all along entering into the offseason. And I sincerely hope that whatever Sig’s data spits out, it wasn’t to make them anywhere near a top/preferred choice. If any of that is true, we are going to have serious issues using that evaluative criteria trying to build a World Series winner.

None of those decisions were good especially given the other options/routes we could have taken. None of those players moved us in be iota toward pushing a winner team (which we were last year) toward a serious contending team. And no, I don’t ever believe that you should enter a season with the goal of a playoff birth being a success. Once you are a winning team you need to look at what you need to do in order to win it all. If you are not a winning team then you should spend seasons trying to lose enough to acquire those pieces for the future.

[geschinger]

41 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Thanks for sharing your perspective!

I see now that we have completely different views on a lot of things and that is okay.

One place that I sincerely hope that you are wrong is if Gibson and Irvin, or even Frazier for that matter, were Elias number 1 intended targets all along entering into the offseason. And I sincerely hope that whatever Sig’s data spits out, it wasn’t to make them anywhere near a top/preferred choice. If any of that is true, we are going to have serious issues using that evaluative criteria trying to build a World Series winner.

Gibson was the only one I think was targeted and again - my guess - willingness to be no commitment past 2023 was what was most attractive.  I think they legitimately had an interest in some of the better pitchers and walked away; almost all of them ended up getting more years than anyone expected and I'm betting most will in retrospect be seen as bad signings.  If they valued pitcher X at 3 years / 60m, my guess is they were disciplined enough not even considering upping their offer to 4 just to try to make a splash in FA. 

I have no idea why Frazier.  The only thing I can think of is they expected the prospects to struggle a bit initially and didn't expect so many to seemingly be ready so soon.  

[Sports Guy]

 

[now]

5 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t ever believe that you should enter a season with the goal of a playoff berth being a success. Once you are a winning team you need to look at what you need to do in order to win it all. 

Just jumping in here to wonder about this logic. I'm don't necessarily buy it at face value, since the playoffs are such a short sample and seem to depend so much on "who's hot" at the moment. Now, if you frame it as how to build a 90-game winner (playoff contender) as opposed to a 100-game winner (playoff lock), that may have more merit. Then again, isn't it more likely that you "build to win" or not, and the record ends up plus or minus 5-10 games from any number you may have projected anyway? And going deeper in the playoffs is just icing on the cake. 

[Frobby]

23 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

When does this change though?  They should be contending next year too. At some point, you just have to deal with it.

Of course, had they done more to make the team (especially starting pitching) better to begin the year, it would be easier to do this.

They have gotten out to a great start. You have some time to get these guys acclimated. Do it now.

I think this is a key point.  Rookies are likely to have their struggles for a while.  But if we are planning to contend for the next several years, we’re going to have to deal with it.  You can’t keep them down forever because we’re contending and “trying to win.”   You have to figure out a way to work them in and get past their initial struggles while the team continues to win. 

It’s not easy, and it perhaps explains why contenders sometimes trade talented minor leaguers for less talented major leaguers who are already past any adjustment period. 
 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think this is a key point.  Rookies are likely to have their struggles for a while.  But if we are planning to contend for the next several years, we’re going to have to deal with it.  You can’t keep them down forever because we’re contending and “trying to win.”   You have to figure out a way to work them in and get past their initial struggles while the team continues to win. 

It’s not easy, and it perhaps explains why contenders sometimes trade talented minor leaguers for less talented major leaguers who are already past any adjustment period. 
 

The idea is to build a team that stays competitive for an extended period right?

Seems to me that the smart move is to take the risk of an adjustment period even if it hurts the chances for this season. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The idea is to build a team that stays competitive for an extended period right?

Seems to me that the smart move is to take the risk of an adjustment period even if it hurts the chances for this season. 

I agree with this, to an extent.  You might want to stage debuts over a period of time, rather than choking them down all at once.  

To be clear, I’d be happy to have Westburg and/or Cowser up here right now.  
 

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 You might want to stage debuts over a period of time, rather than choking them down all at once.  

 

I agree with this and that is what the O's are doing with Gunnar.  While he struggling they are trying to keep the rest of the lineup strong so they can continue winning.

I do think that when rookies struggle its alright for them to be sent down,  work on issues in AAA, and then return.    It should not be looked at as punishment or some kind on loss of faith in them.   Its just part for the development process.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I agree with this and that is what the O's are doing with Gunnar.  While he struggling they are trying to keep the rest of the lineup strong so they can continue winning.

I do think that when rookies struggle its alright for them to be sent down,  work on issues in AAA, and then return.    It should not be looked at as punishment or some kind on loss of faith in them.   Its just part for the development process.

It's an option, but it shouldn't be a first option.

It depends on the player and the situation. 

 

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think this is a key point.  Rookies are likely to have their struggles for a while.  But if we are planning to contend for the next several years, we’re going to have to deal with it.  You can’t keep them down forever because we’re contending and “trying to win.”   You have to figure out a way to work them in and get past their initial struggles while the team continues to win. 

It’s not easy, and it perhaps explains why contenders sometimes trade talented minor leaguers for less talented major leaguers who are already past any adjustment period. 
 

I think the bigger thing is staggering them.  You don't want 3-4 guys making adjustments all at once.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think the bigger thing is staggering them.  You don't want 3-4 guys making adjustments all at once.

You have that anyway. Guys are always slumping and making adjustments.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think the bigger thing is staggering them.  You don't want 3-4 guys making adjustments all at once.

That’s what I meant.  Of course, some players adjust faster than others, so it’s not a science.  And some never do adjust.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You have that anyway. Guys are always slumping and making adjustments.

Eh.  The thing about the slumps of established big leaguers, and the adjustments that rookies make to the big leagues, is that slumps end.  Not everyone successfully transitions to the major leagues.

When Stowers goes 2-30 with 12 Ks we don't know when that is going to end; when the light is going to turn on.

When Santander goes 2-30 with 12 Ks you can feel confident that he's going to start raking real soon.