First Infielder Off the Ship

[Bemorewins]

Just now, owknows said:

 

I guess someone forgot to tell the front office to ixnay on the inningway...  cuz they're winning now.

 

By winning, I didn’t mean having a winning record (we did that last year). I meant pursuing a championship. I don’t believe anybody expects us to win a World Series with the roster as is.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I missed all the rebuild quotes.

I think what is missing is perspective.  This time last year we were still complaining here a lot that the Orioles were not serious in even fielding a proper MLB team.  The Orioles are on the rise.  They may not be primed for the bright lights, but it's not hard to see that change.

It's an interesting spot to be in in April of '23.  I can easily see anyone saying the Orioles are, at best, the 4th best team in the AL East and barely a competitor for a wildcard.  On the other hand, if the SP can solidify around those that are here and those that are already coming, and the BP can get healthy, I can see this team being someone nobody wants to play by the end of the summer.

It's early, and the Orioles have not pitched consistently well and have had some obvious defensive hiccups.  But if you look at the Wildcard standings this am, the Orioles are ahead of three of the six teams you list above.  Again, it's not even May.  I think we all agree that to be a serious contender the Orioles will need an Ace.  Maybe that is Grayson.  But more likely that person isn't on the roster today.  You don't win the league in April or May, but you can let it get away.  The Orioles are in the hunt.

Let's enjoy the new normal.  And still be ok raising expectations without promoting the idea that losing today portends the end of the season.  It's a marathon and while I won't be satisfied until the O's hang another WS Banner....the idea that we can compete beyond April is very refreshing.  

I understand that baseball is a long season. And did not mean for my post to come across as trying to win a World Series in April even being focused on watching the standings at this point. 
 

However as I look toward what it will take to go toe to toe with our competitors in the AL, we do not currently losses the type of pitching talent that will require. But the great thing is we have the type of minor assets/prospects/talent that can get us what we need.

I have to believe that as smart as Elias is, that must have been the plan all along. We have not drafted a top pitching prospect since DD was GM. Of our top 20 prospects only 6 are pitchers. How many of them were drafted by Elias 2/3?

One last thing, to those pointing to DL Hall’s development. What gives you that confidence that he will turn into a good starting pitcher let alone great? - He will be 25 this year and has had no real success as of yet at AAA.

[owknows]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

By winning, I didn’t mean having a winning record (we did that last year). I meant pursuing a championship. I don’t believe anybody expects us to win a World Series with the roster as is.

I don't think there are teams from too many markets that "expect" to win a World Series.

But I think most teams try to put together a competitive roster, try to play good baseball, have a few balls break their way, and hope to win a World Series.

I don't think we're in the former column. But the latter.

And I think the objective of the front office is to KEEP us in that column.

By making good strategic decisions... not pissing away money on high priced free agents... keeping the farm stacked...

We just came out of a long rebuild.. spent a lot of fan patience on acquiring a good mix of players. We're just now emerging from the dark days. Let's see what we have.

No doubt we're going to need to trade some position players. A fair number of them I'd say. And we should trade them at least in part for pitching... But a lot of that capital should be traded for highly regarded pitching in the mid-minors. To backfill the pitchers we're maturing now. That's what the front office needs to do. And likely will do.

They're playing a long game. You'd prefer they play a short game. But there are some of us that would just as soon resist the urge to go all in every time a move is made. A little patience will be highly rewarded.

 

 

Edited April 15, 2023 by owknows

[Sports Guy]

Mountcastle and Gunnar are your CIF. We will see about Mayo and Kjerstad for Mounty.

You have Mateo, Urias, Ortiz, Norby and Westburg for the MI spots (and spelling Gunnar at third for some of them.)

Norby probably isn’t good enough defensively for second but that doesn’t  mean he can’t handle the OF because his bat should play. But it could still make him expendable in a trade.

Holliday is right behind them and will move fast.

We don’t know how teams are valuing Mateo or Urias. I would imagine they would be fine dealing both of them especially since they are a little older and closer to arb money but you don’t give them away either.

The answer to the question is, whoever brings us back enough in trade to justify moving them.

Edited April 15, 2023 by Sports Guy

[oriole]

41 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

My only hope is that the front office and ownership begins to value winning. 
 

I’m absolutely all the way out on being forced as a fan to prioritize a billion dollar corporation’s profit margin. If it comes down to it, where they trade Mullins, Hays, and Mountcastle; I’m done! Because that will only mean that Adley, Gunnar and the rest will only follow in time. And at that point, winning is then not a priority and I am volunteering to sign up as a fan for indefinite misery as long as the owner makes money. No thanks!

I’m only saying those guys should be traded to make room for the cheaper talent that’s ready to make the jump and that the players they’re traded for are also ready or near-ready. Then use the savings from trading the players deep in arbitration for spending on even more pitching.

Outside of Rodriguez, this team has close to nothing. There’s bright spots and long shots, but Povich and Rom will have to reach their absolute maximum level of play to make any real difference on a major league team. 

And it sucks to break it to you…but it’s a near certainty that Rutschman and Henderson will either be traded at some point or lost to free agency. Until the Angelos family is out, there is no extensions or spending spree. John wants $$$$$$$

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, oriole said:

 

Outside of Rodriguez, this team has close to nothing. There’s bright spots and long shots, but Povich and Rom will have to reach their absolute maximum level of play to make any real difference on a major league team. 

What 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, eddie83 said:

I don’t know is my answer. So far the infield production has been solid. Gunnar is the one scuffling. I’m not sure any infielders are off the ship this year. 
 

I think it’s worth watching to see if Westburg keeps playing in the OF at AAA. I could see them using him there in the second half of the season. 

I could see that.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

I don't think there are teams from too many markets that "expect" to win a World Series.

But I think most teams try to put together a competitive roster, try to play good baseball, have a few balls break their way, and hope to win a World Series.

I don't think we're in the former column. But the latter.

And I think the objective of the front office is to KEEP us in that column.

By making good strategic decisions... not pissing away money on high priced free agents... keeping the farm stacked...

We just came out of a long rebuild.. spent a lot of fan patience on acquiring a good mix of players. We're just now emerging from the dark days. Let's see what we have.

No doubt we're going to need to trade some position players. A fair number of them I'd say. And we should trade them at least in part for pitching... But a lot of that capital should be traded for highly regarded pitching in the mid-minors. To backfill the pitchers we're maturing now. That's what the front office needs to do. And likely will do.

They're playing a long game. You'd prefer they play a short game. But there are some of us that would just as soon resist the urge to go all in every time a move is made. A little patience will be highly rewarded.

 

 

I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree on how to build a team to win a championship.

I understand that it is unrealistic to have championship or bust aspirations for a baseball team. What I meant is to be in the realistic conversation. IMO - We currently are not. And would need a lot to go our way just make the playoffs, as there are several teams in our division and league who are much more talented or at least have significantly better starting pitching.

If having the bar set at squeezing into the playoffs is satisfactory to you, it is certainly not for me. Especially after 40 years since having a World Series game in Baltimore.

I am definitely not into trading for mid-minors pitching prospects, as this does nothing to increase of odds of having a better Major League team. And I haven’t seen anything that suggest we are the Rays and can develop elite pitching consistently year after year. The Baltimore Orioles need frontline pitchers now and in the immediate future while we have Adley.

Lastly, I disagree with your characterization of my approach. Being to win now, at all cost while sacrificing the future. We have TOO Many prospects for that to even be a concern, unless we are going to trade them all, which we are obviously not. 
 

It doesn’t need to be either/or, it can be both/and. Trading excess prospects who are blocked for areas of weakness at the Major League level is the approach that is logical and just about every other professional baseball organization who is interested in competing for a championship has/would/will do.

I’m not advocating for a drastic/extreme approach. Just some logic that may lead to a World’s Championship or 2. If the Astros are a model that we are striving towards, that’s what they have done.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, oriole said:

I’m only saying those guys should be traded to make room for the cheaper talent that’s ready to make the jump and that the players they’re traded for are also ready or near-ready. Then use the savings from trading the players deep in arbitration for spending on even more pitching.

Outside of Rodriguez, this team has close to nothing. There’s bright spots and long shots, but Povich and Rom will have to reach their absolute maximum level of play to make any real difference on a major league team. 

And it sucks to break it to you…but it’s a near certainty that Rutschman and Henderson will either be traded at some point or lost to free agency. Until the Angelos family is out, there is no extensions or spending spree. John wants $$$$$$$

That sounds like a second rate approach to running a profession franchise. If true, I’m done. And will not support that. And I imagine, of the fans that we still have many will follow suit. What is the appeal to the average baseball fan in the community for such an approach?
 

That is going to further alienate even more people/fans and at that point, the baseball team will be largely irrelevant in the community and might as well move.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

After reading through this thread a bit more, I see that there are some who still want to operate in rebuild mode by trading away guys who can help us win for more prospects. To that I ask - When will winning at the Major League level be top priority for you?

If our owner is lukewarm or disinterested in signing Adley long term, that means we only have him for 4 years after this. It’s great to have a bunch of young players but they take time to acclimate to the Majors as we are seeing with Gunnar. If we go that route again next year, that is another year of not being serious championship contenders while we have Adley. Are you comfortable with this?

Laslty, to those saying we don’t need pitching, I ask: What staff would you take our pitchers in for a playoff series? Do we have better starters than the Rays, Jays, Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, or Astros?

If the answer is no (which to me only the Jays argument can be made with very Orange colored glasses). What plan do you propose for postseason success against these teams given their rosters? Hope for Grayson to become an ace and what else? Would you take Kremer or Bradish over their #2 and #3 starters? Is that is reasonable beat to place our postseason lives on?

This is a developing team.   What we see now is not what will be there in October in terms of the progress of the O's players.  I don't GRod will be pitching in the playoff because of innings limits.

Means 3.81 career ERA and an All Star.

Wells  3.38 ERA in the first half of 2022.

Bradish  3.28 ERA in the 2nd half of 2022.

Kremer 3.23 ERA last season

How far will Hall  have developed?

Do they keep All-Star Gibson or trade him?  That is a late July decision.  He had a 2.87 ERA for Texas in 2021.  

They only need four starters in the playoff.

[oriole]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

That sounds like a second rate approach to running a profession franchise. If true, I’m done. And will not support that. And I imagine, of the fans that we still have many will follow suit. What is the appeal to the average baseball fan in the community for such an approach?
 

That is going to further alienate even more people/fans and at that point, the baseball team will be largely irrelevant in the community and might as well move.

It’s the approach of a team that has signaled every intention that they will stay in the bottom of the league in payroll. Rich men crying poor. 
 

I absolutely am 100% against the whole not spending on anyone thing but that’s the O’s and if they’re going to win and sustain it, then trading prospects and keeping the expensive players is not the move to make. 

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I know that this is an infield thread so I will stick with that, but we will have to trade more than infielders because we have an serious imbalance of talent stock in both Majors & Minors between hitting and pitching.

1) The most obvious infield trade candidate is Joey Ortiz in my mind. He is a top 100 prospect who is Major League ready. He is also a redundant prospect for us with Jackson Holiday being behind him, but much higher ranked as a former 1:1. Ortiz also has no place to play in our already overcrowded Major League infield. Even if we replaced Mateo with him (which I wouldn’t want to do because I believe Ortiz has more value in a trade), he would only be placing holding the position for a year or year in a half at most. And then we would have to trade him anyway.

2. Roman Urias - He’s a decent player. Good 3rd base defense, ok bat, average speed. But he’s holding up a spot for Westburg. Both of them should not occupy the same ML roster as they offer very similar things.

3. One of Norby or Mayo. Again where are they going to play? If Westburg is at 2nd, Mateo or Ortiz is at SS, and Gunnar is at 3rd; where do they fit in? The outfield? Only problem is the Mullins and Hays aren’t going anywhere, so that leaves RF. If you want to use Santander as a DH exclusive that’s fine. But again that means only one of them can occupy RF. And that is only until Cowser or Kerstad take their place. 
 

Conclusion: We have way too many positional players in the org and not enough places to put them.

Ortiz may be the O's 2nd baseman when Frazier is traded. Could be Westburg but he may be needed in the OF.

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Ortiz may be the O's 2nd baseman when Frazier is traded. Could be Westburg but he may be needed in the OF.

When Frazier is traded? Don’t you mean if?

[EddeeEddee]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I see these posts that the O's need pitching.    I don't see it that way.

They have Gibson and Wells doing well.  GRod has to be in the rotation and he has great stuff.  Bradish will be in the rotation this week for the Nats series.    

The fifth starter is between Kremer, Watkins, Irvin and Zimmermann.    Hall has a start today in AAA.  Means is on track to be in the rotation in July.

I don't see that the O's need to trade for starting pitching.

I would not trade a top 20 prospect for a reliever.   Elias finds those guys without giving up much.

There will be trades in July and the prime candidate for me are Frazier, Santander,  Gibson,  Givens, McCann, O Hearn, and Coulombe.   Not that all of them will be traded but Elias will be listening on some of them because of their contract status and depending on how the youngsters are doing.

Pushing from the minors are Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Cowser and Stowers.   Kjerstad may be knocking by August.   Handley, Haskin, Lester, Hall,  Zimermann, Rom,  Krehbiel, Darwinzon Herandez, Vespi and did you see what Denoyer did the other night.

This team badly needs pitching.  Even if this pitching staff was performing like last year's -- and it isn't (and easily may continue so) -- it would need plenty of pitching depth to account for injured and players who can't repeat last year's performance.  Kyle Gibson of all people was the OD starter.  Half of the pitchers on the team are getting hit hard.  The team ERA is in the bottom 5 of the league.

And at some point they will have way too many position players -- presumably quite good position players -- than can fit on a baseball team.  Of course this team will have to trade for pitching.  That's the easy thing to figure out.  The hard part is the whos and the when.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This is a developing team.   What we see now is not what will be there in October in terms of the progress of the O's players.  I don't GRod will be pitching in the playoff because of innings limits.

Means 3.81 career ERA and an All Star.

Wells  3.38 ERA in the first half of 2022.

Bradish  3.28 ERA in the 2nd half of 2022.

Kremer 3.23 ERA last season

How far will Hall  have developed?

Do they keep All-Star Gibson or trade him?  That is a late July decision.  He had a 2.87 ERA for Texas in 2021.  

They only need four starters in the playoff.

You cherry picked a lot of stats - (last season, first half, career ERA, etc.)

For me Means (PRE-INJURY) would be the only one I would have confidence in starting a postseason series. I appreciate you laying out our guys in a list. Have you do so with out potential competitors, listing their top 3/4 starters. I promise you, they are better than ours.

Why would they not keep Gibson? He's our best started right now (not to say he will be so at the deadline let alone season's end). Are you advocating trading him for ... prospects? We're kind of good in that department (at least position wise) and I doubt you get any high level pitching prospects for him. In trading him, it seems that we would be punting this seasons hope to be as strong as we can be down the stretch. How many more of those seasons do we need to take such an approach? ... The clock is ticking on Adley.