Ohtani Rental?

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I can’t believe there are 47 pages on a guy where our changes of getting him are in the negative percentages.

A lot of the reason for the page count is because three novels are being concurrently written in the thread. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

I appreciate the response and it is informative.  

1). I see lots of folks include 2018 as part of the Tanking.  2018 was a colossal failure and brought about the full rebuild.  It also brought us Adley.  Technically it is part of the rebuild in that sense, but it certainly wasn't tanking.  That may be a technicality, but I think it is an important distinction.

2022 like 2023 the performance has been better than people expected and likely better than even Elias expected.  I think general managing a winning club is totally different.  I agree completely that the Orioles were sellers at the deadline last year.  I think it was an intelligent move based on realistic expectations of the club at that time to make moves that were beneficial to the club even if they did not appreciably lift the 22 playoff chances.  Many here want the Angels to sell because they are not likely to have a real chance.  I think 22 was a correct assessment of the Orioles chances.  In 23, I hope we see more support for the current club, but I really do not expect major moves.  I hope to be surprised.

2).  I don't think we see the current roster the same way.  I think the Orioles will be underdogs in several playoff matchups.  I do not see the huge red flags you seem to.  The Orioles will be underdogs even if they remain on top of the AL East and have the AL's best record.  In part because they have so many young and untested players who have no playoff experience.  Hopefully that changes in 24.  However, while I am hopeful of some additions this week, I believe if the current group can be healthy, they can compete with anyone.  Favored?  No, but especially if they can grab home field, I like their chances...even as underdogs.  That does not mean I want them to stand pat.  I don't.

3).  I can't with any assurance say that ownership will allow Elias to invest in the current players.  I wish I could, but I feel pretty certain we will not.  Would love to be wrong and would love a sale soon.  But, I do feel that we have a GM that will at least manage that process in a way that allows the Orioles to remain competitive.  Hopefully that isn't as morbid as being a farm system for real contenders.

I doubt Adley is ever extended and I hope that we try on Gunnar and Holliday. They have to want to stay and we have to be willing to pay.  I see no current path to extending everyone under current ownership.

I want to make an attempt at mutuality and express that I am also appreciative for the way that you chose to respond.

I’m curious as to your response in particular to point #2. - You seem to frame our possible underdog status as being due mostly to our inexperience. While I think that we of course be a factor, I struggle to understand how our bullpen not named Bautista doesn’t concern you. Their consistent inability to keep the other team off the scoreboard is alarming to me. Because with the type of starting pitching that we have we will be asking the pen to hold close leads in high leverage/pressure packed situations for most likely 4 innings per game. They have not shown this ability to do so with any consistency in the regular season, which is where one of my alarms/concerns/red flags comes from. To me, this kind of hole/flaw in the team screams this will be a problem if unaddressed come the Fall. As much as I would be giddy about an Ohtani trade, even he in all of his greatness can not fix that. No matter if/who we add as a starter, we still need a very reliable arm to help anchor the bridge to Bautista in big spots. JMHO

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I can’t believe there are 47 pages on a guy where our changes of getting him are in the negative percentages.

To be fair, 40 of those pages are different iterations of the same thing posted by the same two posters.

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So Elias basically said he’s building an organization for the Longterm. Angelos has chimed in that they want to emulate the Rays but with a little more payroll capability. Since Elias has been here they have been mostly upfront about the direction of the team. The lonely hiccup was when Elias indicated they were ready to spend and then backed up when corrected by ownership.

Selling off 4-5 players from “the Warchest” for a 2 month rental isn’t a Rays type move.Othani is a poor investment if you don’t win the World Series. Current around 15 %. May the rental puts you in the really low 20ish. It’s not worth it to deal anyone that you could get long term value out of whether is via trade or service with the team.

BTW, I don’t discredit Mr Othani’s skills or capabilities. But, the Angels have had him and Trout but no World Series. So I think it’s debatable that his edition could bring it home. The resources lost for 2 months of a player will take a substantial time to replace. Are we stacked ? Sure….but, we need better long term pitching and the minor leagues are very short on pitching prospects that look to be can’t miss. People here are nervous about dealing Povich and his near 5 ERA over the last 2 seasons. 
 

Hall was viewed as the savior last season by many here. I kept saying….too many walks, too high ERA in the minors, struggling to go 5 innings due to pitch count. Although it’s sample size he’s a 6 era pitcher in the bigs. He’s likely destined for the pen and might be a good leverage reliever if he can cut down on the walks. 
 

So trade the prospects you’d throw away on the Othani rentals on some potential difference makers for the rotation. That’s what I’m using my war chest on! 
 

Elias has told you his path…..He’s open to dealing from the infield depth to get some pitching. But, I don’t think that means 5 players for Othani or even one or two of our top 100 or near top 100  guys on a 2 months rental. 
 

They are too valuable to do that based on the plan

 

If we chose not to pursue Ohtani but acquire a difference making starter instead who is under contract/control for more than this stretch I will be ecstatic. 

I rarely believe in being dogmatic in any approach. There is more than one way to improve the Orioles as we pursue becoming champions both now and in the future.

My concern is that we do nothing of consequence and continue to “hold”/delay decisive action until an unknown date in the future. Now that we have a legit shot at the World Series, the time for action has come upon us.

As you mentioned concerns about Hall, he is just about at the age where he is going to lose significant value and no longer retain prospect status. Ortiz while he has performed very well in the Minors this year and last, is almost at that age as well. Stowers is now 25. Kjerstad will be 25 next year. When guys get into that age, we are talking about prime years being wasted in the Minor  leagues. At some point you have to play them or trade them. You can’t hold on to them for “just in case Minor League depth” forever. 

[FlipTheBird]

14 minutes ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

 

Well at least we can put this thread to rest.

[HakunaSakata]

15 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Well at least we can put this thread to rest.

Seriously. Can one of the mods lock it? It’s pure fiction at this point.

[tntoriole]

38 minutes ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

 

Good.. Angels organization is a dumpster fire ..hope they get a comp pick only as their return 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I want to make an attempt at mutuality and express that I am also appreciative for the way that you chose to respond.

I’m curious as to your response in particular to point #2. - You seem to frame our possible underdog status as being due mostly to our inexperience. While I think that we of course be a factor, I struggle to understand how our bullpen not named Bautista doesn’t concern you. Their consistent inability to keep the other team off the scoreboard is alarming to me. Because with the type of starting pitching that we have we will be asking the pen to hold close leads in high leverage/pressure packed situations for most likely 4 innings per game. They have not shown this ability to do so with any consistency in the regular season, which is where one of my alarms/concerns/red flags comes from. To me, this kind of hole/flaw in the team screams this will be a problem if unaddressed come the Fall. As much as I would be giddy about an Ohtani trade, even he in all of his greatness can not fix that. No matter if/who we add as a starter, we still need a very reliable arm to help anchor the bridge to Bautista in big spots. JMHO

I appreciate your response as well.  

The Orioles succeed in large part because their pitching keeps them in games and because Bautista is or has been otherworldly.

I think both as situated today need improvement.  And while the performance has not been consistent it has been consistent enough to get the O's to where they are.

I am not saying I want to see them stand pat.  But I think some of the improvement is likely to come in the form of smaller moves like the one we have already made.  Will that be enough?  Maybe. We could also get a boost from guys moving from starter to the pen.  Or from Means or Grayson.  Will that be enough?  Maybe.

Would I like to see us nail down two guys from SanDiego?  Of course.  

I don't know if those guys are available and I don't know if the pieces we really want are going to be and I don't know if if they are available, if we will pay to get em.

I won't say I will be happy if it falls out that way, but overall, I think or rather I interpret your view as we are not good enough as is.  I think that is probably right, but I think we are better as is than you believe.  But I respect your thoughts/hopes that we invest more into this '23 opportunity.  I personally just don't think we have any reason to believe that Elias will push very many chips into the center of the table unless it is for controllable assets that increase multiple opportunities.  I hope you are right.  I just don't think you are and if I am right and Elias stays conservative I am not going to be too upset.  Mildly, but not too.  I will expect some serious FA play over the winter.  IF that happens, I will join you.

The Orioles health this week has to have Elias rethinking multiple things.  Anyway, I have enjoyed the conversation.  I will make a point of trying to catch you at a game later this summer/fall and perhaps we can enjoy a beverage.

[MurphDogg]

Actions speak louder than words. This seals that Ohtani won't  be traded.

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Actions speak louder than words. This seals that Ohtani won't  be traded.

There will still be another 30 pages of what we need to trade to get him. 

[NashLumber]

4 hours ago, 24fps said:

A lot of the reason for the page count is because three novels are being concurrently written in the thread. 

Reminds me of the Mark Teixeira thread in 2009 here. Or maybe the Dexter Fowler controversy in Spring Training '16. 

[Winter]

Its still a win for the Orioles that Ohtani wont be on the Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, RSox, Twins, Rangers, Astros down the stretch and in October. 

[EddeeEddee]

59 minutes ago, Winter said:

Its still a win for the Orioles that Ohtani wont be on the Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, RSox, Twins, Rangers, Astros down the stretch and in October. 

Or any National League team either if the O's can make it that far.  

[LA2]

4 hours ago, NashLumber said:

Reminds me of the Mark Teixeira thread in 2009 here. Or maybe the Dexter Fowler controversy in Spring Training '16. 

Legendary folly both