Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline

[Ridgway22]

9 hours ago, waroriole said:

Most people on here were born before Bonds retired. 

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Edited July 24, 2023 by Ridgway22

[waroriole]

10 minutes ago, owknows said:

Weiters has a career OPS+ of 93

Profar has a career OPS+ of 92

Both have below average careers with the bat.

While both Weiters and Profar have ongoing careers... I don't think either of them lived up to the lofty expectations of a number one prospect. And those were the words I used.

I wasn't even really even considering Benintendi.

 

I wouldn’t expect stardom from someone just because they’re a #1 prospect. That I agree with you on. Too many factors can prevent that from happening. I expect a great chance the player will have a solid ML career. That seems to be the case for everyone on the list. 

[bpilktree]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I have no idea whether Wells is wearing down or not.  I believe he has never pitched more innings in a season than he has now.  If he is starting to get a tired arm, it would make sense to skip his next start and see how he feels. 

He should get an extra day rest this turn.  I would pitch him on turn here because it is the Saturday before the deadline so this start could be a factor if we do make a move or not.  If he struggles again you have to seriously think about getting him a break.  

[ChosenOne21]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

Weiters has a career OPS+ of 93

Profar has a career OPS+ of 92

Both have below average careers with the bat.

While both Weiters and Profar have ongoing careers... I don't think either of them lived up to the lofty expectations of a number one prospect. And those were the words I used.

I wasn't even really even considering Benintendi.

 

Yeah, but one's a catcher and the other's a shortstop. That context is huge. Sure, Profar at 5 WAR over 10 years is a disappointment, but Wieters clocks in at 18.2 WAR. Yeah, he wasn't Mauer with power, but he was one hell of a good backstop in his prime, and that WAR is 85th best all-time among catchers. 

Sure, if Holliday's career OPS is .700-ish like Profar, that's a disappointment. But that's exceedingly unlikely. Profar was never really a lauded offensive prospect--it was his hitting pretty well for a shortstop at a very young age that drew rave reviews. At the same age, Holliday's minor league OPS is over 100 points higher than Profar's at basically the same level. I also doubt Holliday will be a corner outfielder by age 30.

I don't know what you think the "lofty expectations of a number one prospect" are. I don't think anyone thinks number one prospect means destined for stardom. I think it means excellent chance to be a major league star, and history shows that most of the number one overall prospects in recent memory have gone on to be, if not stars, very good major league players.

[owknows]

13 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I wouldn’t expect stardom from someone just because they’re a #1 prospect. That I agree with you on. Too many factors can prevent that from happening. I expect a great chance the player will have a solid ML career. That seems to be the case for everyone on the list. 

We agree completely.

[owknows]

8 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Yeah, but one's a catcher and the other's a shortstop. That context is huge. Sure, Profar at 5 WAR over 10 years is a disappointment, but Wieters clocks in at 18.2 WAR. Yeah, he wasn't Mauer with power, but he was one hell of a good backstop in his prime, and that WAR is 85th best all-time among catchers. 

Sure, if Holliday's career OPS is .700-ish like Profar, that's a disappointment. But that's exceedingly unlikely. Profar was never really a lauded offensive prospect--it was his hitting pretty well for a shortstop at a very young age that drew rave reviews. At the same age, Holliday's minor league OPS is over 100 points higher than Profar's at basically the same level. I also doubt Holliday will be a corner outfielder by age 30.

I don't know what you think the "lofty expectations of a number one prospect" are. I don't think anyone thinks number one prospect means destined for stardom. I think it means excellent chance to be a major league star, and history shows that most of the number one overall prospects in recent memory have gone on to be, if not stars, very good major league players.

Not to denigrate Weiters... he's had a long and serviceable MLB career

but his 18.2 career WAR is over 14 years.

And as I said... his career OPS+ is a below average 93

If you recall, he had the nickname Switch Hitting Jesus when coming out...

Glad he found a way to make a long career... but a career OPS+ of 93 isn't what I would think of as a Switch Hitting Jesus.

The point of all of this was that Holliday's number one prospect status doesn't make him a can't miss superstar. I expect him to be good, and he probably will be... but there's a significant chance that he'll be just another MLB player.

And it is short-sighted to assume otherwise.

That's the point. Nothing more.

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Royle said:

I get what you’re saying.  I’m just saying taking a series from any of these teams may not be as big an upset as you’re making it.  Clearly the Braves are loaded, but I don’t think those other teams are so far ahead of us.

And those same executives may take the Yankees staff over ours; and the Blue Jays, the Mariners, the Twins, the Brewers and maybe a couple of other teams that have been looking up at the Orioles most of the season.

In the end, in the postseason talent matters. If there is a talent gap between us and all of our competitors each round that is bound to not end well. The Rangers have a better offense and starting staff than us, we have a better bullpen. Rays have a better starting staff than us, at this point with many of their hitters regressing I would say that the offenses are a wash. They have a better bullpen overall but we have Bautista who is better than anyone else’s back end guy. The Braves are better at every area except closer. 

These are my opinions but I don’t think that it is any kind of strained logic to see how I came to these conclusions. 

[Bemorewins]

Also, I believe when you have this much organizational talent and a team who has performed this well, you should not be content with accepting an underdog/“little engine that could” status or accept those kind of unfavorable odds.

[owknows]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

In the end, in the postseason talent matters. If there is a talent gap between us and all of our competitors each round that is bound to not end well. The Rangers have a better offense and starting staff than us, we have a better bullpen. Rays have a better starting staff than us, at this point with many of their hitters regressing I would say that the offenses are a wash. They have a better bullpen overall but we have Bautista who is better than anyone else’s back end guy. The Braves are better at every area except closer. 

These are my opinions but I don’t think that it is any kind of strained logic to see how I came to these conclusions. 

FWIW I'd say that's a pretty fair summary of the situation.

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

In the end, in the postseason talent matters. If there is a talent gap between us and all of our competitors each round that is bound to not end well. The Rangers have a better offense and starting staff than us, we have a better bullpen. Rays have a better starting staff than us, at this point with many of their hitters regressing I would say that the offenses are a wash. They have a better bullpen overall but we have Bautista who is better than anyone else’s back end guy. The Braves are better at every area except closer. 

These are my opinions but I don’t think that it is any kind of strained logic to see how I came to these conclusions. 

The Orioles have been in 6 World Series.  They were favored in 1969, 1971, and 1979.  They lost all 3.  They were underdogs in 1966, 1970, and 1983.  They won all 3.  The games aren't played on paper.

[FlipTheBird]

53 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You must have not read my post regarding the projected value of the # prospect Holiday over his first 6 full seasons vs 2 months (and playoffs of Ohtani). 

I don’t know that this solid career vs bust vs superstar talk has to do with what I said. 

I was talking about the WAR projected of 2 months of Ohtani vs what you can reasonably expect to get from 6 years of Holliday as a #1 prospect. I used the last 5 years worth of number 1 overall prospects in the sport as comps to what can reasonably be expected from a player like Jackson Holliday.

I read your post. You must not have read any of mine. I have reiterated several times that I would not trade Jackson Holliday for Shohei Ohtani. I have at no point lobbied otherwise. And my most recent reply to you was more attempting to clarify the post you were challenging. The conversation briefly angled into more of a discussion on top prospects and the careers they've had, or haven't had.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

The Orioles have been in 6 World Series.  They were favored in 1969, 1971, and 1979.  They lost all 3.  They were underdogs in 1966, 1970, and 1983.  They won all 3.  The games aren't played on paper.

Gotta love a team with heart...  (but it doesn't hurt to have Palmer, McNally, Cuellar and Dobson either.) 

[FlipTheBird]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Also, I believe when you have this much organizational talent and a team who has performed this well, you should not be content with accepting an underdog/“little engine that could” status or accept those kind of unfavorable odds.

I don't believe that's what the FO is doing, or plans to do... They're clearly having conversations with other clubs, and they've already worked out one small low-risk, high-reward kind of deal (as Easton Lucas wasn't going anywhere). But they also have their own plans and obligations that we're obviously not privy to. All we can do is speculate on those.

[Roy Firestone]

9 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I was alive for all of Bonds career and in IMO for as great as he was (especially on the stuff) he is still not as valuable as Ohtani the player because of Ohtani's unique two way nature. 

 

we have a better shot at getting Babe Ruth than Ohtani...

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

The Orioles have been in 6 World Series.  They were favored in 1969, 1971, and 1979.  They lost all 3.  They were underdogs in 1966, 1970, and 1983.  They won all 3.  The games aren't played on paper.

It sounds like you feel comfortable taking your chances with what we have and seeing how things play out as it sounds like you opinion may be informed by the historical success and failures of the team in the World Series dating back to 1966?

I don’t want to dismiss your view point/logic as many way. I will just tell you that my opinion is based on the belief that the best talent gives your the greatest odds for success and I would rather be on the side with the better talent going into the postseason. And I don’t see a reason that we cannot even the odds by acquiring more/better talent in areas where we are weaker line the starting rotation and middle relief. 

Of course I acknowledge that variables can change when the games are played thus producing upset. But when I look at the most recent World Series from 2022 between the Astors and Phillies, the odds finally caught up to PHI who had upset their way through the NL playoffs. I would hate for that to be us because we were dogmatic about taking a cheap approach to roster construction and failed to acquired better talent.