Santander Speculation

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Not directly, but an interview of Elias or something, while he wouldn't provide his direct plans, would at least show some insight.

This is just some rando spitballing.

That said, I think you have the wrong idea about the way Elias goes about his business.  I don't think he has guys he "wants" and others he "doesn't want" to trade.  He's not going to go into this offseason thinking he has to move specific guys for specific reasons; ie salary, or logjam.  He makes moves considering the entirety of the organization.  

Obviously. I dont think that at all but you are the one who wants something with insight from the FO. That isn’t really going to happen. You may hear some real general, basic stuff..the normal cliches, etc..but that’s about it.

Its all going to be speculation.

Roch has already mentioned some speculation about Santander. It’s obviously going to be out there. Chances are Elias will say the normal trade stuff, which means absolutely nothing.

[btdart20]

14 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

I think Santander is gone. I don't see the O's going to FA with players. I think they have to flip anyone with value to sustain the "pipeline". I think that it their strategy. In a vacuum, I'd like to keep Santander but, there are prospects waiting and I don't see them gambling on him turning down the QO and getting a draft pick.

I've been thinking about the QO angle of this too.  I think you're right that Santander would accept the QO.  From Santander's POV, the QO is solid pay and then less obstacles for him in the 2025 FA market for a lifetime contract (even if a year older). 

I don't doubt HK can be a close proxy for Santander, but we need more than a replacement for 2024.  

Do they get crazy and trade Hays AND Santander AND sign a short-term MOO bat (or two) while handing the COF to Cowser and Kjerstad?  That feels like a lot of moving parts and roster churn even if it balances the short/long-term plans.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why not?

1) Rookie adjustment period.

2) Santander hit 28 homer in 591 at bat.

Kjerstad in 10 homer in 295 AAA at bats.   

Santander is much more likely to have more power that Kjerstad in his rookie year.

[Roll Tide]

30 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

I think Santander is gone. I don't see the O's going to FA with players. I think they have to flip anyone with value to sustain the "pipeline". I think that it their strategy. In a vacuum, I'd like to keep Santander but, there are prospects waiting and I don't see them gambling on him turning down the QO and getting a draft pick.

This is basically what Angelos was saying when he said modeled after the Rays. I hope that includes long term extensions for the right guys. But, Santander isn’t that guy.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

24 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Give Kjerstad 600 ABs and I think he'll match or exceed what we got from Santander this season. 

Santander has been the Orioles best power hitter the last few years, but Gunnar, Kjerstad and others can eclipse Santander's production over the next couple seasons.

The Orioles have a glut of prospect talent and these players cannot stay in the minor leagues forever. We've reached the point where Elias needs to move some veteran talent or trade prospects to fill in other holes on the roster.

Given that players like Santander are getting more expensive the closer they reach free agency, I'd say there is a decent chance we see a veteran player or two get traded this offseason.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

In Kjerstad's rookie year?   I am not sure of that one.  

Neither am I but it’s not unreasonable either.  Overall, I think he could come close.  We may find out.

[Otter]

51 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I believe to make it to the WS next year the O's are going to have to both hit and pitch.  Especially In the playoffs.

In other news, the sky is blue and grass is green...

[LookinUp]

42 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Give Kjerstad 600 ABs and I think he'll match or exceed what we got from Santander this season. 

I don't think that. I think over the next few years we'll jettison the entire 2023 outfield and will see an adjustment period throughout the year. To me, that means the team might be worse for 5 months and about as good by the end of the year with the new, cheaper, players. 

24 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Do they get crazy and trade Hays AND Santander AND sign a short-term MOO bat (or two) while handing the COF to Cowser and Kjerstad?  That feels like a lot of moving parts and roster churn even if it balances the short/long-term plans.

I'd be quite surprised. I do think they get rid of either Hays or Santander this year, the other next year, and maybe Mullins the year after. In that time we should be able to produce three ML outfielders, or sign decent replacements to decent value contracts.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Otter said:

In other news, the sky is blue and grass is green...

My grass was brown in the August and generally is not very green after its frozen in the winter.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't think that. I think over the next few years we'll jettison the entire 2023 outfield and will see an adjustment period throughout the year. To me, that means the team might be worse for 5 months and about as good by the end of the year with the new, cheaper, players. 

I'd be quite surprised. I do think they get rid of either Hays or Santander this year, the other next year, and maybe Mullins the year after. In that time we should be able to produce three ML outfielders, or sign decent replacements to decent value contracts.

I agree there will be outfielder turnover over the next two years.   There will also be injuries and probably non performance.   It's all a question of when.   Mullins was injured in 2023 at the same time as Cowser was injured.

[G54377]

I'd much rather trade Hays. I don't like the idea of having to replace Santander's 30 HR/100 RBI. We already need another middle of the order bat to realistically compete for a WS.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, G54377 said:

I'd much rather trade Hays. I don't like the idea of having to replace Santander's 30 HR/100 RBI. We already need another middle of the order bat to realistically compete for a WS.

I can see the thought process.  But moving Santander means replacing a potent bat and moving Hays, means you need another rangy LF'er.  To me it's about the return.  Neither of them should be moved for salary relief.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously. I dont think that at all but you are the one who wants something with insight from the FO. That isn’t really going to happen. You may hear some real general, basic stuff..the normal cliches, etc..but that’s about it.

Its all going to be speculation.

Roch has already mentioned some speculation about Santander. It’s obviously going to be out there. Chances are Elias will say the normal trade stuff, which means absolutely nothing.

Both things can be true.

Elias would never publicly disclose his intentions.

And, this is some rando spitballing from pretty general premises.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I think everything that is coming out this time of year is "rando spitballing." 

Elias is certainly not going to show his cards either. It's fine to speculate and discuss, but there is nothing solid coming out this time of year.

Saying that, IF, and that is a very big if, IF Santander can bring back a top reliever and a solid young controllable starting pitcher than I think it's fine to move him, but it's not like they are going to give him away. if they do "give him away" because of salary, then we have bigger issues.

Yeah, moving Santander makes "some" sense, so it may well happen.

But this particular writer has no insight into whether the O's are going to do that than the average poster here, and he possess no insight into what the Marlins, or whomever, might be thinking in regards to Santader and  their own guys.

I agree that all we have now is speculation, and I guess I'm just being an old man shouting at a cloud.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think Elias feels he has to trade Santander but there are a lot of logical reasons why he would and money is always a consideration.  Free up 12M, open a spot for a prospect (Kjerstad?) and get something of value back.  

Sure, there's reasons to trade him, and there's reasons to not trade him.  I won't be shocked either way.