Hyde, Elias, Henderson, The Sporting News winners

[ShoelesJoe]

34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

You can look at it that way and that's fine.  And I agree, Gunnar will be the better player.  Gunnar IS the better player.  

But that's a separate argument from who would have won the ROY award this year if Jung hadn't gotten hurt.  Like I said, he was leading in two key categories that voters look at when considering who to vote for.  And, at the time, Gunnar was hitting something like .244.  While he raised his batting average to a respectable level, no way that voters were considering voting for someone hitting in the .240s.  

I think it would have been close, but Jung leading most of the summer would have carried him to the award, IMO.  

Jung's OPS was 50 points higher at home than on the road. Henderson's OPS was slightly lower at home. Jung played 11 fewer games than Gunnar, but came up to bat with runners in scoring position 18 more times than Henderson. Jung hit .252 / .335 / .378 w/RISP, and .154 / .200 / .385 with the bases loaded. Gunnar hit .281 / .348 / .587 w/RISP and 364 / .333 / .909. with the bases loaded. 

I think (hope) voters would have taken into account when, where, and how Jung's counting stats would have been accumulated, and understood that his offensive numbers were almost certainly inflated by both his home park, and the guys batting in front of him. Everything being equal I think Gunnar still wins going away. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

You can look at it that way and that's fine.  And I agree, Gunnar will be the better player.  Gunnar IS the better player.  

But that's a separate argument from who would have won the ROY award this year if Jung hadn't gotten hurt.  Like I said, he was leading in two key categories that voters look at when considering who to vote for.  And, at the time, Gunnar was hitting something like .244.  While he raised his batting average to a respectable level, no way that voters were considering voting for someone hitting in the .240s.  

I think it would have been close, but Jung leading most of the summer would have carried him to the award, IMO.  

So, you’ve backed off your original statement that Jung would have won it “fairly easily” if he hadn’t gotten hurt.  

At the time of his injury, Jung had an OPS of .813.   Gunnar ended up at .814.   Jung’s .813 translated to an OPS+ of about 117, Gunnar’s final .814 translated to 125.   So, advantage to Gunnar there.

if Jung had kept up his HR/RBI pace, he would have finished with approximately 32 HR,  97 RBI, compared to 28 and 82 for Gunnar.  Advantage Jung, though the better offensive environment in Texas (not just because of the ballpark, but all the baserunners in front of him) makes that advantage not as big as it seems at first blush.  

That leaves you with defense, and there Gunnar has a pretty good advantage, toggling between SS and 3B and being very good in both spots, while Jung was strictly a 3B, though a good one.

Bottom line, we will never know if Jung would have played better, worse or about the same as he had through 112 games if he hadn’t gotten hurt then.  Assuming he’d played about the same, I think it would have been a pretty close race between the two.   I don’t think Jung would have won “fairly easily,” but it’s possible (far from certain) he might have won.  

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Frobby

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, you’ve backed off your original statement that Jung would have won it “fairly easily” if he hadn’t gotten hurt.  

At the time of his injury, Jung had an OPS of .813.   Gunnar ended up at .814.   Jung’s .813 translated to an OPS+ of about 117, Gunnar’s final .814 translated to 125.   So, advantage to Gunnar there.

if Jung had kept up his HR/RBI pace, he would have finished with approximately 32 HR,  97 RBI, compared to 28 and 82 for Gunnar.  Advantage Jung, though the better offensive environment in Texas (not just because of the ballpark, but all the baserunners in front of him) makes that advantage not as big as it seems at first blush.  

That leaves you with defense, and there Gunnar has a pretty good advantage, toggling between SS and 3B and being very good in both spots, while Jung was strictly a 3B, though a good one.

Bottom line, we will never know if Jung would have played better, worse or about the same as he had through 112 games if he hadn’t gotten hurt then.  Assuming he’d played about the same, I think it would have been a pretty close race between the two.   I don’t think Jung would have won “fairly easily,” but it would have been a pretty close race between the two.  

 

I think 32 homers, 97 RBI and playing for a playoff team wins you the ROY fairly easily...or maybe not.  Even if it were close, he still wins.  So you can hold my feet to the fire for the "fairly easily" comment or hold my feet to the fire for backing off...either way, I think if Jung was healthy all year, Gunnar was playing from behind after his sluggish start and it's difficult to overcome that.

Now, you know as well as I do that these things come down to a WAR race.  We've been back and forth over this before and there's not much you can do or say to make me think differently.  I just read an article on the Athletic earlier where Bowden was selecting his All MLB Team, he basically picked the highest WAR players.  

From that angle, yeah, Gunnar wins.  But as I said, I think some writers will revert back to basic counting stats and consider those, too.  And unless someone is, like, Brooks Robinson/Mark Belanger level of defense, I don't think defense really comes into the picture too much.  But that's just me.

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think 32 homers, 97 RBI and playing for a playoff team wins you the ROY fairly easily...or maybe not.  Even if it were close, he still wins.  So you can hold my feet to the fire for the "fairly easily" comment or hold my feet to the fire for backing off...either way, I think if Jung was healthy all year, Gunnar was playing from behind after his sluggish start and it's difficult to overcome that.

Now, you know as well as I do that these things come down to a WAR race.  We've been back and forth over this before and there's not much you can do or say to make me think differently.  I just read an article on the Athletic earlier where Bowden was selecting his All MLB Team, he basically picked the highest WAR players.  

From that angle, yeah, Gunnar wins.  But as I said, I think some writers will revert back to basic counting stats and consider those, too.  And unless someone is, like, Brooks Robinson/Mark Belanger level of defense, I don't think defense really comes into the picture too much.  But that's just me.

 

I have zero insight as to what the writers feel is important.  I do think that they consider defensive skill, but also defensive position.   The fact that Gunnar played SS half the time is a big plus for him.  

But, it’s all hypothetical.  Maybe Jung would have played better down the stretch.   Maybe he would have played worse.  He finished the season poorly when he returned - was that just rust, or was he due for a slump?  He had an .862 OPS in his first 59 games, then .755 over the next 50 before his injury.  So, there’s no saying he posts .813 (his overall number as of his injury) if he stays healthy.  It’s completely speculative.  
 

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ah, a WAR argument.  

Keep in mind, Gunnar was playing from behind until Jung went down.  Jung was at .274/.323/.490 when he went down.  22 homers, 67 RBI.  Yes, I know it's ultimately a WAR race which is predictable, but I do believe counting stats play a role here, too.

Gunnar was at .243/.331/.477 with 19 homers at 51 RBI.  So, yeah, Gunnar was behind at the time.  Gunnar played better defense which added to his WAR but I think if Jung played the whole season, he goes over 30 homers, goes over 90 RBI and that's tough to beat.

That is tough to beat, just ask Mountcastle.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

That is tough to beat, just ask Mountcastle.

He only had 89 RBI, one more and he'd have jumped from #6 to #1.

[tntoriole]

11 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Yeah, wouldn't want to over-credit a team that 1) made the playoffs, 2) were well-prepared for the playoffs and 3) played great in the playoffs. 

The teams that won the regular season should get all of the awards.

That just seems backwards to me that they don't want to over-credit the people who won what is everyone's goal to win.

In the 54 seasons since playoffs were introduced in 1969,  the team with the best record has won the World Series 15 times. 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, tntoriole said:

In the 54 seasons since playoffs were introduced in 1969,  the team with the best record has won the World Series 15 times. 

That’s noticeably better than random chance.  

From 1969-93, there were 4 teams in the playoffs.  Random chance of winning = 25%, for 25 years.  Expected wins at random chance = 6.25 wins.

There was no WS in 1994.   From 1995-23, the team with the best record had to win two series before getting to the WS.  Random chance of winning = 12.5%, for 29 year.  Expected wins at random chance = 3.625.

Toral expected wins at random chance = 9.875.   Actual wins = 15.   
 

[Sports Guy]

14 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think 32 homers, 97 RBI and playing for a playoff team wins you the ROY fairly easily...or maybe not.  Even if it were close, he still wins.  So you can hold my feet to the fire for the "fairly easily" comment or hold my feet to the fire for backing off...either way, I think if Jung was healthy all year, Gunnar was playing from behind after his sluggish start and it's difficult to overcome that.

Now, you know as well as I do that these things come down to a WAR race.  We've been back and forth over this before and there's not much you can do or say to make me think differently.  I just read an article on the Athletic earlier where Bowden was selecting his All MLB Team, he basically picked the highest WAR players.  

From that angle, yeah, Gunnar wins.  But as I said, I think some writers will revert back to basic counting stats and consider those, too.  And unless someone is, like, Brooks Robinson/Mark Belanger level of defense, I don't think defense really comes into the picture too much.  But that's just me.

 

I’m pretty sure Gunnar played for a playoff team too…and his team won 11 more games and won their division.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[LookinUp]

9 hours ago, tntoriole said:

In the 54 seasons since playoffs were introduced in 1969,  the team with the best record has won the World Series 15 times. 

I didn't say it wasn't good to be the best team in the regular season. I'm just saying what happens in the post season should also count for awards purposes. And yes, I think post season performance should be weighed a little more than regular season. That doesn't mean that a rookie who played a month in the majors and goes off in the post season should win the ROY award above someone who put up 6 WAR in the regular season and didn't even make the playoffs, or did and stunk.

[Frobby]

I got so caught up in the Henderson discussion yesterday, I forgot to congratulate all three on this accomplishment.  I think Hyde won the SN award last year, too.  Great job by all three of them.

On the issue of whether the awards should take postseason into account, I note that the other major sports do it the same way as MLB does.   I could see the argument for including postseason, but I’m fine with the way they do it.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I got so caught up in the Henderson discussion yesterday, I forgot to congratulate all three on this accomplishment.  I think Hyde won the SN award last year, too.  Great job by all three of them.

On the issue of whether the awards should take postseason into account, I note that the other major sports do it the same way as MLB does.   I could see the argument for including postseason, but I’m fine with the way they do it.

 

Now that you have congratulated them, I’m guessing these 3 can finally celebrate.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Now that you have congratulated them, I’m guessing these 3 can finally celebrate.

Gunnar already texted me a thank you.  

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I didn't say it wasn't good to be the best team in the regular season. I'm just saying what happens in the post season should also count for awards purposes. And yes, I think post season performance should be weighed a little more than regular season. That doesn't mean that a rookie who played a month in the majors and goes off in the post season should win the ROY award above someone who put up 6 WAR in the regular season and didn't even make the playoffs, or did and stunk.

To protect against that possibility is probably why they don’t do it.  But it is all just made up criteria and awards anyway.  

[FlipTheBird]

On 10/26/2023 at 10:13 AM, LookinUp said:

Yeah, wouldn't want to over-credit a team that 1) made the playoffs, 2) were well-prepared for the playoffs and 3) played great in the playoffs. 

The teams that won the regular season should get all of the awards.

That just seems backwards to me that they don't want to over-credit the people who won what is everyone's goal to win.

If you win in the playoffs are get the team championship trophy, that’s what they’re for. These individual awards are supposed to be decided by the incredibly long campaign that leads to October.