Cease vs everyone else

[larrytt]

[EDIT: This was in a different thread I started. The moderators moved it here. So my response below doesn't make sense out of context.]

This has been a disappointing thread. I brought up the topic of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers. There have been exactly two relevant responses buried among the many responses so far, where DrinkinWithFermi brought up FIP (Fielding Independence of Pitcher), and ChosenOne21 brought up similar ideas. Those were intelligent responses. But the rest? Over and over I’m told (often with great sarcasm) two things:

1.      There are too many Cease threads

2.      All my answers are in the other Cease threads

I hate to bring facts and logic to an online discussion, but here goes. There is only one other Cease thread. One. Uno. Singular. I checked back through 30 pages of discussions going back to last September and the name “Cease” appears in exactly one other thread title. So all the talk about too many Cease threads is silly. [EDIT: It turns out there were other Cease threads as "recently" as November, but they all died out and none of them show up in the last 30 pages of discussion here. The ones from September were ongoing threads. So all this talk of numerous Cease threads isn't accurate, since other then those from long ago, this is the only one.]

So, all my answers are in the other Cease thread? Great. There are over 3,500 responses on 235 pages there. If I read them at one per minute, it would take nearly 60 hours to go through them. Thanks, but no thanks. I did read the first page of responses, and there was no mention of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers. None. So, I thought this would be a good way to ask the question and actually discuss this specific question of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers, as opposed the apparently wide-ranging discussion on in those 3,500 responses in that other (singular) thread that’s actually about Cease versus other non-Orioles pitchers, but I was wrong. [EDIT: And there are still people posting that I should have read through the now 3,600+ postings here rather than ask in a new thread. Lots of unthinking sarcasm.] 

So, I will Cease (pun intended) posting questions on this discussion thread. I had a good run a number of years ago when I used to post those “Top Ten” lists and join in many other discussions, and I joined in a few times this past year and was getting excited about the upcoming season, but things have really changed here. But feel free to pile on with those sarcastic responses about all these Cease threads that don’t exist and telling people who are new to the current discussion that they have to wade through 3,500 postings to find their answers.

Edited January 13 by larrytt

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Don’t hurt yourself reaching.

Promoting of age players that have crushed the minors is just what every team does. Saying that was some sign that they were serious about contending is completely over the top Imo. That’s just, the way things are done.

The Os didnt do anything last offseason to be serious about contending. Things worked out to become contenders and that’s great.

It’s like saying the team has to be awful for 4 years to become good again.  Just a bad argument all around.

 

I would contend that a transition took place between 2022 and 2023.

Full time Adley and Gunnar. Rodriguez and Bradish.

No more Odor, Aguilar, Arauz, Phillips, Owings.

The result was a contending team.

Did those changes produce a bigger than expected impact?  Sure.

Were they an "all in" light switch toward contention? Of course not.

Some of it was luck. Some of it was unexpected performers like Bautista.

But clearly by the team's own admission, and by the results on the field, something significant changed.

You can pretend that wasn't so for whatever reasons you choose.

 

 

[RZNJ]

My Top Ten Responses

1. You used to be fun and funny

2. Look it up.

3. Everything is in the other thread.  You missed it.

4. You used to be funny

5. We don’t need another stinkin Cease thread.

6. Look it up.

7. This is hard.

8. You used to be funny.

9. Everything you ever wanted to know is in the other thread.

10. There used to be someone really good at these lists.  Whatever became of that guy.

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

We should be selling off major league talent. We have a surplus of emerging major league talent. Particularly at infield skill positions.

This is preferable to "just signing someone" because a trade would likely involve the acquisition of a player in or approaching their peak years, at a lower salary point, with remain years of team control in a cost controlled position.

Whereas signing a free agent confers a greater risk, as the cash and time outlay (and therefore the cost of failure) is greater.

What is are major league talent (The vets, Not the young Pitchers Adley, Henderson Westburg) but rather Mateo Urias Mountcastle Santa, Hays. What are they worth?

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

What is are major league talent (The vets, Not the young Pitchers Adley, Henderson Westburg) but rather Mateo Urias Mountcastle Santa, Hays. What are they worth?

They are worth decent AA arms that if accumulated in sufficient numbers will assure that the pitching conveyor belt is maintained into the future.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, larrytt said:

 

I hate to bring facts and logic to an online discussion, but here goes. There is only one other Cease thread. One. Uno. Singular. I checked back through 30 pages of discussions going back to last September and the name “Cease” appears in exactly one other thread title. So all the talk about too many Cease threads is silly.

 

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50042-dylan-cease/#comment-3046872

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50079-would-you-trade-cowser-and-ortiz-for-cease/#comment-3047679

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50339-would-you-trade-cowser-and-ortiz-for-cease-december-follow-up/#comment-305374

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50340-if-not-ceasethen-who/#comment-3053766

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50386-luzardo-or-cease-which-one-do-you-want-and-why/#comment-305504

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50182-cease-vs-everyone-else/#comment-3049669

 

Edited January 13 by Frobby

[Safelykept]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

They are worth decent AA arms that if accumulated in sufficient numbers will assure that the pitching conveyor belt is maintained into the future.

We don't need AA arms we need  Major League Arms What about this year?  you start trading our ML talent To get younger, Then you set yourself up for the birdcage or the trapset, Better known as the perpetual Rebuild

[Just Regular]

I hope Elias practicing and refining his process is at least thinking about whether the 2022 Orioles might have been able to be the 2023 Diamondbacks.

He actively throttled Adley's Year 1 team, and it was a reasonable choice based on the balance of probabilities.

Now he has more assets for Holliday's Year 1 team, and perhaps he knows he's got one $30mm+ salary slot for 2030.

I think @owknowsis doing a great job here describing all we have to be excited about as Orioles fans these days.

[owknows]

Just now, Safelykept said:

We don't need AA arms we need  Major League Arms What about this year?  you start trading our ML talent To get younger, Then you set yourself up for the birdcage or the trapset, Better known as the perpetual Rebuild

It's certainly debatable, but I don't think that's true.

I think some combination of Irvin, Wells, and Hall are likely better than anything we'd trade for.

As far as starters go, we only lost Gibson. And we won 101 games. Our core of young players is now a year more experienced, and we likely will see a couple AAA players graduate that are arguably better than some of the current MLB position players.

I  wouldn't object to a trade for MLB pitching, but I wouldn't characterize it as necessary.. nor would I consider it the best use of the trade capital we have on hand.

I'd rather let the young arms develop, and refill the back of the conveyor belt with better value.

Sustainability

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, brooooksy said:

You’re not getting this without selling off major league talent. Why that would be preferable to just signing someone I have no idea. 

It saves Angelos money.

[Frobby]

Sorry, @larrytt.  I understand you not wanting to look for discussions of Cease vs. our other starters in the 220+ page Cease thread.   I assure you, there’s ample discussion of it there.   Just do a search for Cease/Kremer, or Cease/Wells, or Cease/Hall, or Cease/Irvn and you’ll find literally dozens of posts on this.  

My view: he’d most likely be at least our third best starter, and there’s at least a decent chance that he’d have a better year than one of Bradish or Rodriguez, or both.  
 

Edited January 13 by Frobby

[E-D-D-I-E]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

No one is “wasting away in the minors”.  It’s just a bogus argument at this point.

AAA games

Westburg 158

Norby 147

Ortiz 114

Cowser 114

Kjerstad 76

Mayo 62

 

 

According to this theory, a 28 yesr old with 50 games in AAA is not wasting away in the minors. Not a good Stat to prove your point.

Next off season, Ortiz and Kjerstad will be 26 and imo, will have lost value as a prospect. 

[SpOkane]

The two threads can be summarized as such (w/ apologies to Dr. Seuss):

Good Cease, Cy Cease, Meh Cease, Bye Cease.

FIP Cease, my Cease, WHIP Cease, why Cease?

This Cease has eight million in pay.

This Cease has a two-year stay.

Say! Cease has a lot of ways to K.

 

[owknows]

Just now, E-D-D-I-E said:

According to this theory, a 28 yesr old with 50 games in AAA is not wasting away in the minors. Not a good Stat to prove your point.

Next off season, Ortiz and Kjerstad will be 26 and imo, will have lost value as a prospect. 

I think the term "wasting away in the minors" may be a little premature... but we clearly have a logjam forming in the infield, and players like Mateo and Urias (who have been great players during the transition) are going to have to yield to players coming up.

From my perspective you probably want to get some return out of them (and perhaps O"Hearn) before you've spent all their control years... So we should be looking to trade those players for AA arms with promise. To maximize their value.

[btdart20]

35 minutes ago, larrytt said:

This has been a disappointing thread. I brought up the topic of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers. There have been exactly two relevant responses buried among the many responses so far, where DrinkinWithFermi brought up FIP (Fielding Independence of Pitcher), and ChosenOne21 brought up similar ideas. Those were intelligent responses. But the rest? Over and over I’m told (often with great sarcasm) two things:

1.      There are too many Cease threads

2.      All my answers are in the other Cease threads

I hate to bring facts and logic to an online discussion, but here goes. There is only one other Cease thread. One. Uno. Singular. I checked back through 30 pages of discussions going back to last September and the name “Cease” appears in exactly one other thread title. So all the talk about too many Cease threads is silly.

So, all my answers are in the other Cease thread? Great. There are over 3,500 responses on 235 pages there. If I read them at one per minute, it would take nearly 60 hours to go through them. Thanks, but no thanks. I did read the first page of responses, and there was no mention of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers. None. So, I thought this would be a good way to ask the question and actually discuss this specific question of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers, as opposed the apparently wide-ranging discussion on in those 3,500 responses in that other (singular) thread that’s actually about Cease versus other non-Orioles pitchers, but I was wrong.

So, I will Cease (pun intended) posting questions on this discussion thread. I had a good run a number of years ago when I used to post those “Top Ten” lists and join in many other discussions, and I joined in a few times this past year and was getting excited about the upcoming season, but things have really changed here. But feel free to pile on with those sarcastic responses about all these Cease threads that don’t exist and telling people who are new to the current discussion that they have to wade through 3,500 postings to find their answers.

It’s just burn out on our end and letting off steam.  It’s not about you.