Pre winter meeting reliever notes

[Sports Guy]

56 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Why not Neris on the list?

Why is everyone so high on this guy anyway?

His K rate is still good but it’s been on the decline for the last few years. Walk rate is high, HR is ok but not great. 
 

His ERA was sub 2 in 2023 but he had a 219 BABiP(easily the best of his career), his xFIp was 4.5, his FIP was just under 4 and his xERA was 3.35.  This was his first sub 3 ERA season since 2019. 
 

He’s going to get way overpaid because of a sub 2 ERA this year when in reality, he’s probably a 3.5ish ERA pitcher with some declining stats, although his statcast numbers are pretty solid.

[SteveA]

10 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

They COULD do both.  I wouldn't want to sign Hader to anything more than 4 years.   Gunnar and Holliday could be under contract at relatively low salaries for that time.   

If they were to sign Gunnar or Adley or Holliday to an extension, I guarantee that they would use that as an explanation/excuse for minimal participation in the free agent market.  When asked why the Orioles didn't pusue free agent X, Elias would talk about prioritizing investing in the guys we have.   (Not that he gets asked questions like that very often).

[clapdiddy]

Just now, SteveA said:

If they were to sign Gunnar or Adley or Holliday to an extension, I guarantee that they would use that as an explanation/excuse for minimal participation in the free agent market.  When asked why the Orioles didn't pusue free agent X, Elias would talk about prioritizing investing in the guys we have.   (Not that he gets asked questions like that very often).

Hence, why I said "could"!      Totally agree with what you are saying.   This team can't get sold fast enough.

[sportsfan8703]

I could see Kimbrel being lured here on a 1-2 year deal if he wants to rack up some saves. Right now he’s only 20 saves from #3 all time. He got knocked around in Philly during the playoffs. So he might be out there.  

Our closer gig is a pretty sweet deal. We use them a lot. I’d say he’d have a 50%+ chance at being an all star the moment he signs. 

Who else in MLB can offer him the closer job on a “good” team?  Is it enough to lure him here on a 1 year deal?  This current FO has never offered more than that.

A 2 year deal is probably what it will take and not the worst situation. He’s our closer in 2024. He then offers protection with Bautista in 2025 and/or we use Bautista as a Hader type and not just a 9th inning save specialist. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[wildcard]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure, 2-3 years would be great but he will get 4-6 years and even if he would sign for 2-3 years, I’m guessing his AAV will be higher than the Os will spend.

Kimbrel, Robertson and Chapman will all get 1 year deals. The Os probably sign one of them. I would rather trade for Kopech and move him to the back of the pen personally. I think his upside is higher than those guys and you can likely acquire him for a “bargain” relative to the cost of established high leverage relievers.

Kimbrel was an all star in 2023.  I could see him getting a 2 year contract in this market.

[LA2]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Kimbrel was an all star in 2023.  I could see him getting a 2 year contract in this market.

Even three yrs!

[Moose Milligan]

I'd love to get Hader.  That would help immensely in 2024 and we'd look even better in 2025 when Bautista returns.

Not gonna happen though.  

[Moose Milligan]

Kimbrel and Chapman are approaching the end of their lines.  If the Orioles feel that they can roll the dice and get one more effective year out of them, I guess so.  

[clapdiddy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd love to get Hader.  That would help immensely in 2024 and we'd look even better in 2025 when Bautista returns.

Not gonna happen though.  

If we got Hader and a starter (Cease, Woo, etc,), I'd be pretty happy with that as an offseason.  I still think we need another bat, but solidifying the rotation/pen would be pretty darn awesome. 

[interloper]

I'm surprised to hear the interest in the bigger names like Hader and Hicks. That's fun to hear, but I don't know how much I currently buy it. Not much, I'd say. 

MLBTR has Hader estimated at 6/$110 and Hicks at 4/$40. One of those looks more like an Orioles deal than the other. But even then, that feels like a light estimation for Hicks. 

It also doesn't feel particularly Elias/Sig/Astros Model™ to sign relievers to long-term deals. So... yeah, I'm highly skeptical. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by interloper

[interloper]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why is everyone so high on this guy anyway?

I believe I've seen two people mention Neris, one of them being me, so I'm not sure that qualifies as "everyone".

Nevertheless, the answer is easy: if you assume we don't pony up for Hader or Hicks, and if don't want Chapman on your team, and you're iffy on Kimbrel for whatever reason, Neris is a logical next guy. He might be cheaper than Kimbrel but provide similar results. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm surprised to hear the interest in the bigger names like Hader and Hicks. That's fun to hear, but I don't know how much I currently buy it. Not much, I'd say. 

MLBTR has Hader estimated at 6/$110 and Hicks at 4/$40. One of those looks more like an Orioles deal than the other. But even then, that feels like a light estimation for Hicks. 

It also doesn't feel particularly Elias/Sig/Astros Model™ to sign relievers to long-term deals. So... yeah, I'm highly skeptical. 

Doesn't cost the team anything to declare interest in a player.

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm surprised to hear the interest in the bigger names like Hader and Hicks. That's fun to hear, but I don't know how much I currently buy it. Not much, I'd say. 

MLBTR has Hader estimated at 6/$110 and Hicks at 4/$40. One of those looks more like an Orioles deal than the other. But even then, that feels like a light estimation for Hicks. 

It also doesn't feel particularly Elias/Sig/Astros Model™ to sign relievers to long-term deals. So... yeah, I'm highly skeptical. 

No way I give Hader that contract.   I could see a team like the Yankees or Dodgers giving him that, though.

[interloper]

I will fully admit that I don't want Kimbrel because I don't want to watch his cringey arm dangle thing all year. Lol. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I believe I've seen two people mention Neris, one of them being me, so I'm not sure that qualifies as "everyone".

Nevertheless, the answer is easy: if you assume we don't pony up for Hader or Hicks, and if don't want Chapman on your team, and you're iffy on Kimbrel for whatever reason, Neris is a logical next guy. He might be cheaper than Kimbrel but provide similar results. 

First of all, I have seen his name mentioned a bunch and not just on here.

Secondly, he definitely gets more money and years than Kimbrel.