2024 Prospect Power Rankings

[Rbiggs2525]

1 hour ago, baltimoriole said:

15-18 maybe. Cowser krejstad Ortiz will all be off. Bradford looking weak. Rightly or wrongly hollidays poor showing will take him from #1 to something lower. Lower draft pick this year. 

Really? I think still having the number 1 prospect and 3 top 30 players will earn you a top 10 spot. I’d rather have 3 top 30 players than 6 players 30-100. We also have some players like Norby, Povich, De Leon who could sneak back end.

[btdart20]

15 hours ago, Gurgi said:

Anyone likely to pop like Basallo did last year?

2024 is the year of the pitcher for the O's.  DeLeon is a dude and "chalk" for guesses.  Forret can pop.  Povich isn't on most (any?) top 100, but he's been fringy for the past year+.  He's trending toward a top 50 type.

He won't be on lists, but Braxton Bragg has a 14+ k/9 and a 1.69 bb/9.  Maybe a BP nugget next year depending on how he’s doing it.

Willem is doing things as a C.  Beavers has been fringy and has been strong so far.  Both probably need a bit more.

FCL is too soon to guess... but Almeyda and Liranzo are interesting. 

15 hours ago, Gurgi said:

Obviously the Orioles drop from the number one farm system this year.  How far back do we drop?  I am guessing 6-10th.  

Still a top 5 system I think.  I don't know other organizations as well, but (a good shot at) 3 top 15 guys carries a lot of weight.  Even "losing" Cowser/Ortiz and maybe HK, they are back-filled by good pitchers who weren't really on national radars.

[Gurgi]

Why is Jud Fabian still dropping?  He already has six bombs this year and is hitting .264.  Honestly he looks like he might be off to a solid start on the season.   

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, Gurgi said:

Why is Jud Fabian still dropping?  He already has six bombs this year and is hitting .264.  Honestly he looks like he might be off to a solid start on the season.   

He just had a great game last night to bump his numbers, but he's having contact issues and still struggles to hit off speed and fastballs in the upper portion of the zone at times.

He still has time to move up, but he seems to have these extreme good games and then kinda go in a funk for a bit. Let's see how he handles the rest of this series to see if it was just a great game of he's about to go on a heater.

[Tony-OH]

Updated as of May 13th. Some bigger changes towards the middle and late parts of the list. 

Not a lot of good happening though with breakouts so far this year after #8 on the list. Kade Strowd is rising fast though. 

[RZNJ]

Aron Estrada in May at Delmarva.  17 for 40 (.425)  with 4 walks and 5 strikeouts, 6 of 7 SB.   Only 1 double but this is looking more like the guy from the 2022 DSL.  Still only 19.   Position in doubt, I know.

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Aron Estrada in May at Delmarva.  17 for 40 (.425)  with 4 walks and 5 strikeouts, 6 of 7 SB.   Only 1 double but this is looking more like the guy from the 2022 DSL.  Still only 19.   Position in doubt, I know.

 

He has obviously looked better of late though he's not driving the ball a ton. He's out of positions at SS (for need) for sure, but still could potentially stick at 2B though the outfield may be his best fit long term.

[sportsfan8703]

Wagner and Horvath are the only real disappointments so far for me. How much does injury play a role in that?

The tiers with the bats look to be,

Potential Stars/All Stars

- Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo

Everyday starters for the O’s 

- Kjerstad, Beavers, EBJ

Platoon Player/starter for another MLB team

- Norby

Too Early to tell/Flawed

- Horvath, Wagner, Fabian, Willems, Etzel

[Tony-OH]

On 3/29/2024 at 8:43 PM, Tony-OH said:

These "power rankings" are a fun way to track prospects throughout the year. They are not "official" prospect rankings that are completed at the end of the year after a full evaluations. To be eligible for the list, a player must play at least one game on an active roster (Except for the first list which will give assumed starting teams). Players starting off in extended spring training or in the DSL are not eligible until they play a game in June. (Updated as of May 13) 

RK	Name	POS	Prev	U/D	Team	INJ
1	Jackson Holliday	SS	1		Nor (AAA)
2	Samuel Basallo	C	2		BOW (AA)
3	Coby Mayo	3B/RF	3		Nor (AAA)
4	Heston Kjerstad	RF/1B	4		Bal
5	Cade Povich	LHP	6		Nor (AAA)
6	Luis DeLeon	LHP	7		DEL (A)
7	Dylan Beavers	OF	5		BOW (AA)
8	Chayce McDermott	RHP	8		Nor (AAA)
9	Enrique Bradfield Jr.	CF	9		ABN (A+)
10	Connor Norby	2B	10		Nor (AAA)
11	Jackson Baumeister	RHP	11		DEL (A)
12	Mac Horvath	2B/3B	12		ABN (A+)
13	Thomas Sosa	OF	14		DEL (A)
14	Max Wagner	3B	18		ABN (A+)	Rehab
15	Creed Willems	C	19		ABN (A+)
16	Trace Bright	RHP	15		BOW (AA)
17	Braylin Tavera	CF	17		DEL (A)
18	Luis Almeyda	SS	13		FCL O's
19	Kade Strowd	RHP	30		Nor (AAA)
20	Seth Johnson	RHP	16		BOW (AA)
21	Matthew Etzel	OF	22		ABN (A+)
22	Michael Forret	RHP	23		DEL (A)
23	Moises Chace	RHP	24		ABN (A+)
24	Juan Nunez	RHP	25		ABN (A+)
25	Cameron Weston	RHP	29		BOW (AA)
26	Jud Fabian	OF	20		BOW (AA)
27	Leandro Arias	SS	21		DEL (A)	7-IL
28	Jalen Vazquez	INF	28		ABN (A+)
29	Frederick Bencosme	2B	26		BOW (AA)
30	Brandon Young	RHP	27		BOW (AA)
	Bubble
	Carter Baumler	RHP			DEL (A)
	Maverick Handley	C			NOR (AAA)
	Jacob Cravey	RHP			DEL (A)
	Keegan Gilles	RHP			BOW (AA)
	John Rhodes	OF			BOW (AA)
	Levi Wells	RHP			DEL (A)
	Wandisson Charles	RHP			NOR (AAA)
	Silas Ardoin	C			BOW (AA)
	Yaqui Rivera	RHP			ABN (A+)
	Edgar Portes	RHP			ABN (A+)
	Riley Cooper	LHP			DEL (A)
	Injured have not played
	Keifer Lord	RHP	22		DEL (A)	7-day IL

Just to track last week's update.

 

[Tony-OH]

Updated thru May 20th.

Some movers at the bottom of the list with pitchers really taking steps forward. Not a ton of hitters really doing well over the last ten days or so.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Updated thru May 20th.

Some movers at the bottom of the list with pitchers really taking steps forward. Not a ton of hitters really doing well over the last ten days or so.

I would have considered a bump up for Cameron Weston, who had two good outings for Bowie last week.   He’s handled his promotion this month very well.   Have you seen much of him?  What are your thoughts?

[sportsfan8703]

I think we’ll get a little more optimism with our hitters when EBJ, Willems, Etzel, Wagner, and Horvath, are all in Bowie and can do enough to get out of the pitcher friendly conditions at A+ Aberdeen, and that league. 

We also need Rubenstein to start giving Perez the big bucks to start landing top 5-10 int’l classes. Especially with us picking at the end of rd 1 in the USA draft. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think we’ll get a little more optimism with our hitters when EBJ, Willems, Etzel, Wagner, and Horvath, are all in Bowie and can do enough to get out of the pitcher friendly conditions at A+ Aberdeen, and that league. 

We also need Rubenstein to start giving Perez the big bucks to start landing top 5-10 int’l classes. Especially with us picking at the end of rd 1 in the USA draft. 

Funds to spend internationally hasn’t been a problem. They’re capped and the O’s generally have spent their allotment the last 3-4 years, or close.  It’s a matter of how much you devote to 1-2 very hot prospects and how much you spread around.  Nothing to do with ownership.  

[Say O!]

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) provides notes and re-rank of his top50.  Note that he removes players who have already lost or projected to lose eligibility in next week or so (meaning no guys like Cowser on O’s or Langford on TEX).  Link to post (note is behind paywall).

• Holliday #2 and 65 FV tier (along w/Skenes who jumped to #1 overall)
• Mayo #6 and 60 FV tier
• Basallo #16 and 55 FV tier
• Kjerstad #47 and 50 FV tier

Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) provides update to his top100.  Unlike Kiley/ESPN, this list does not yet reflect any changes or projected changes to rookie eligibility (ie guys like Langford and Chourio are still in the top100 list).  Link to top100 list and his separate write up post.

• Holliday #1
• Basallo #9
• Mayo #22
• Kjerstad #26
• Povich #92

[Tony-OH]

Updated through Memorial Day May 27th!

Pitchers year so far this year!