Grayson Rodriguez 2024

[Malike]

If he can't locate the breaking stuff and throw the fastball with a good location he gets destroyed. I keep hearing how good his stuff is, but his pitch values are not good on anything but his offspeed pitch. His fastball had negative run value last year and it does again this year. Barrel and hard hit % are both up this year too. I guess he'll live or die by the changeup if it's working or not. Whiff rate and K% are good not great according to statcast.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

5 turns along Grayson sits 5th in 4-seam fastball velo among SP, lagging...

Hunter Greene, 2019 TJ

Jared Jones, a survivor like him, so far doing exciting things

Jordan HIcks, 2019 TJ

Dylan Cease, 2014 TJ

Grayson got to 3000 game pitches in 2023; Jared Jones' 2022-2023 looks like 2050 and 2067 pitches according to Fangraphs.

 

It’s probably fairly inevitable that Grayson will need TJ at some point in his career. Velo increases the risk. However, it’s very common for all pitchers, regardless of velo.

The biggest thing Grayson has going for him is that he’s made it to age 24 without a shoulder or elbow injury (at least that I can recall), which already separates him from many others in the high velo club. The best predictor of future injuries is past injuries, and while he did have that lat issue that knocked him out for a fair bit his record is pretty clean in that respect. 

Also, it’s more the conventional baseball wisdom than something I’m aware of being supported in stats, but Grayson has a prototypical pitcher’s frame and in theory that could help his durability. It doesn’t seem like he generates his velo from a max effort delivery.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

It’s probably fairly inevitable that Grayson will need TJ at some point in his career. Velo increases the risk. However, it’s very common for all pitchers, regardless of velo.

The biggest thing Grayson has going for him is that he’s made it to age 24 without a shoulder or elbow injury (at least that I can recall), which already separates him from many others in the high velo club. The best predictor of future injuries is past injuries, and while he did have that lat issue that knocked him out for a fair bit his record is pretty clean in that respect. 

Also, it’s more the conventional baseball wisdom than something I’m aware of being supported in stats, but Grayson has a prototypical pitcher’s frame and in theory that could help his durability. It doesn’t seem like he generates his velo from a max effort delivery.

His back or shoulder might give out first.

Hardly any talented pitcher retires without some sort of serious injury recorded.

[CaptainRedbeard]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

His back or shoulder might give out first.

Hardly any talented pitcher retires without some sort of serious injury recorded.

Exactly. If you go down a list of the leaderboards of velo leaders and note all their injuries, there’s a lot of them. But if you instead just take a list of all 30+ year old pitchers and sort it however you like, I don’t expect it’s going to look all that different. 

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, scottbbfm said:

Yeah.  It’s called baseball. The point is the Orioles are plenty capable of winning games their defacto aces aren’t starting. 

Really!? It's called baseball? Thanks for letting me know!

 

They are going to lose more games than they win when the starting pitcher has a sucky night. They can't score ten runs a night. The thread is about discussing Grayson Rodriquez's pitching. Just saying his performance doesn't really matter is incorrect and an uninteresting take. 

[scottbbfm]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Really!? It's called baseball? Thanks for letting me know!

 

They are going to lose more games than they win when the starting pitcher has a sucky night. They can't score ten runs a night. The thread is about discussing Grayson Rodriquez's pitching. Just saying his performance doesn't really matter is incorrect and an uninteresting take. 

A one off game in April doesn’t matter. His performance over the course of the season certainly does. 
 

odd you found it so uninteresting you were compelled to respond. 

[Ohfan67]

33 minutes ago, scottbbfm said:

A one off game in April doesn’t matter. His performance over the course of the season certainly does. 
 

odd you found it so uninteresting you were compelled to respond. 

I’m trying to help you become more interesting! You helped me figure out that we are talking about baseball, so I wanted to do you a favor in return. 
 

I’m just joking around. 

[sportsfan8703]

I think that Trout HR shook GR a bit and he never really got settled in. That and he had his worst command of the season. 

He will be alright. It happens. 

[Just Regular]

Big opportunity tonight for Grayson to uplift the club - momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.

On a good night, he could have a chance to match career bests for turn length - 8.0, 7.0 and 6.1 were his top 3 results last year.    None of those efforts took 100 pitches - his career high entering tonight is 101 pitches, the one and only time in his MLB career to date he's attained triple digits.

He matched the 6.1 innings once this year.

[Malike]

I'm probably more worried about Rodriguez than most. His data is bad. Fastball is down 1 MPH, he's poor in some important categories like Avg EV, Barrel %, Hard-hit, and he's not getting many GB. If his off-speed stuff is working then he's got a shot, if he has to rely on his fastball he's going to be in trouble, it's not a good pitch.

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, Malike said:

I'm probably more worried about Rodriguez than most. His data is bad. Fastball is down 1 MPH, he's poor in some important categories like Avg EV, Barrel %, Hard-hit, and he's not getting many GB. If his off-speed stuff is working then he's got a shot, if he has to rely on his fastball he's going to be in trouble, it's not a good pitch.

How much of those categories look bad now just because of his last start though? That'd be my question.

Biggest start of the year for him tonight. I confess to being pretty worried about it. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

How much of those categories look bad now just because of his last start though? That'd be my question.

Biggest start of the year for him tonight. I confess to being pretty worried about it. 

 

You have to remember too that the Angels also roughed up GR last year at OPACY.  So they've done that in 2/3 of his career starts versus them.  

I expect big time velo from him in the warm weather tonight.  The Yankees lineup is pretty RH and we have the wall with a spacious LF.  Soto should be circled, and containing him and Judge will be critical to this series.  

It's a playoff type of game tonight, and I expect GR to deliver a QS.  

[Malike]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

How much of those categories look bad now just because of his last start though? That'd be my question.

Biggest start of the year for him tonight. I confess to being pretty worried about it. 

 

They've looked bad all season. He's thrown 190 4 seam fastballs and the slugging % is .543 against it, hard hit 48.6%, they are slugging .700 on the cut fastball with a 50% hard hit. His fastball has negative run value, it's not a good pitch. He's actually been lucky, his expected slugging on the 4 seamer is .622.

Edited April 29 by Malike

[interloper]

42 minutes ago, Malike said:

They've looked bad all season. He's thrown 190 4 seam fastballs and the slugging % is .543 against it, hard hit 48.6%, they are slugging .700 on the cut fastball with a 50% hard hit. His fastball has negative run value, it's not a good pitch. He's actually been lucky, his expected slugging on the 4 seamer is .622.

Well that all sounds very dire indeed.  

[Malike]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Well that all sounds very dire indeed.  

If it's any consolation, his fastball which has -2 run value right now, was -11 last season.  Soto might hit the warehouse.

Edited April 29 by Malike