Cedric Mullins 2024

[DirtyBird]

19 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

How's Gunnar doing in that spot? Mullins has done well there in the past. 

Gunnar is doing well in that spot. Everything indicates he will put up better numbers across the board for a leadoff man than Mullins, over the course of the year. And he is also probably better vs LHP than Mullins, eliminating the need to platoon the leadoff spot.

[Tony-OH]

On 4/1/2024 at 8:26 PM, DirtyBird said:

He’s not a good baseball player anymore.

4th OF, at best

I don't like to call people out for bad calls since we all make them, but have you changed your mind yet? 

Mullins is one of the guys I might extend because we don't have a pure center fielder above High-A that could be an above average centerfielder both with the glove and the bat.

 

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't like to call people out for bad calls since we all make them, but have you changed your mind yet? 

Mullins is one of the guys I might extend because we don't have a pure center fielder above High-A that could be an above average centerfielder both with the glove and the bat.

 

A lot of blue on there.

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Melanie said Statcast had that at 65% catch probability (3-star catch).  

I'll be honest, the more I watch the statcast catch probabilities the more I think they need to tweak some things. Unless Mullins got a bad jump, which it doesn't appear so, I don't see how that is a 65% catch probability. Sure, there are some other great CFers out there, but damn, that looked every bit of a 5-star catch to me.

[TommyPickles]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, the more I watch the statcast catch probabilities the more I think they need to tweak some things. Unless Mullins got a bad jump, which it doesn't appear so, I don't see how that is a 65% catch probability. Sure, there are some other great CFers out there, but damn, that looked every bit of a 5-star catch to me.

Yea, 65% catch probability is laughable. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I’d like this but I’m out of rep. 
 

You’re not wrong. But this is a great place to learn, too. Coming in with scorching hot takes and not knowing how to back up an argument isn’t a great way to make friends here. 

IMO, it’s a place for knowledgeable fans and people who want to learn. It’s not Facebook or something. 
 

I agree. And that’s why we need the knowledge/wisdom/insight for vet posters like you and others (I don’t want to call names at the risk of excluding someone - but you know who you are). 

Otherwise, this board will deteriorate and become like the crazy town that the main message board is for the other pro sports franchise in town. We gotta keep that from happening here.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

A lot of blue on there.

Check out all the value "stats". 

0.8 rWAR, tied for 2nd on team
0.7 fWAR tied for 3rd on team

Anyway you slice it Mullins is still an everyday centerfielder.

[Fiver6565]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, the more I watch the statcast catch probabilities the more I think they need to tweak some things. Unless Mullins got a bad jump, which it doesn't appear so, I don't see how that is a 65% catch probability. Sure, there are some other great CFers out there, but damn, that looked every bit of a 5-star catch to me.

If that wasn’t a five star catch then five star catches don’t exist. He was parallel to the ground, fully airborne, when he caught it. And he caught it in LCF after clearly being shaded to RCF, that’s visible in even the most basic replay of it. 
 

Might be time to treat those StatCast catch stats with a massive grain of salt. That system might need a reboot or something. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Fiver6565 said:

If that wasn’t a five star catch then five star catches don’t exist. He was parallel to the ground, fully airborne, when he caught it. And he caught it in LCF after clearly being shaded to RCF, that’s visible in even the most basic replay of it. 
 

Might be time to treat those StatCast catch stats with a massive grain of salt. That system might need a reboot or something. 

Not like he took a bad route to it either. 

[Fiver6565]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree. And that’s why we need the knowledge/wisdom/insight for vet posters like you and others (I don’t want to call names at the risk of excluding someone - but you know who you are). 

Otherwise, this board will deteriorate and become like the crazy town that the main message board is for the other pro sports franchise in town. We gotta keep that from happening here.

This is why IMO it’s important to call out rampant negativity for negativity’s sake. It drags down the board. Criticism is fine, but I think most of us can tell/see the difference between criticizing a player and just being overly negative. 

[Fiver6565]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Not like he took a bad route to it either. 

He wouldn’t have, couldn’t have caught it if he did!  I have a hard time believing there’s a CF in baseball who would have done better on that play. 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

This is why IMO it’s important to call out rampant negativity for negativity’s sake. It drags down the board. Criticism is fine, but I think most of us can tell/see the difference between criticizing a player and just being overly negative. 

I agree. Shoot I’m not afraid at all to offer critique. But I’m all not defensive when it comes back to/at me.

We can all see that Hays is struggling right now and that Cowser is playing better. There’s nothing wrong with pointing that out IMO.

But saying Mullins is “done” was ridiculous just because he struggled in the 2nd half after returning from injury and got off to a slow start this year.

Some of these “fans” it seems don’t understand the marathon that a baseball season is and are hyper reactionary with every game, inning, week.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Not like he took a bad route to it either. 

There’s only 3 possible explanations:

1.  Mullins didn’t get a great jump.  (Always hard to tell on a replay.)

2.  Mullins isn’t that fast anymore and a speedier CF wouldn’t have had to dive for it.  

3.  The stat is flawed.   

Take your pick.  


 

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

There’s only 3 possible explanations:

1.  Mullins didn’t get a great jump.  (Always hard to tell on a replay.)

2.  Mullins isn’t that fast anymore and a speedier CF wouldn’t have had to dive for it.  

3.  The stat is flawed.   

Take your pick.  


 

Little of 2, mostly 3. 

[Just Regular]

Its a speed thing, I believe.    2024 Mullins is 24th of the 32 rated CF's in sprint speed in the early going.

In 4.2 seconds, if you estimate it takes about 1.2 seconds getting up to speed, the faster CF's cover 3-6 extra feet in pursuit and maybe put that ball in their hip pocket.

Highlight reel finishes occur at the perimeter of the fielder's range but don't relate to if the range is big or small.     Mullins is on the Adam Jones half of the football field of his CF career and is still a fantastic player.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=2&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1954&season=2024&pos=cf

By coincidence, it looks like today Mullins has 2277 Orioles PA to Jones' 6841, almost precisely 1/3rd.     Triple Mullins' fWAR and he beats AJ by 25%.