Cedric Mullins 2024

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

This is why IMO it’s important to call out rampant negativity for negativity’s sake. It drags down the board. Criticism is fine, but I think most of us can tell/see the difference between criticizing a player and just being overly negative. 

Eh, the board is here for all opinions. I don't always agree with opinions, but it's their right to have a negative opinion about a player. If they want to die on that hill when there is overwhelming evidence that he's wrong, so be it. 

A healthy Cedric Mullins is still a very good player. It was pretty clear he was not healthy for most of last season.

[ScGO's]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Mullins is one of the guys I might extend because we don't have a pure center fielder above High-A that could be an above average centerfielder both with the glove and the bat.

 

He's a Free Agent after the 2025 Season. You gotta think someone will be in the mix for the O's in CF by the start of 2026 right? He's definitely the guy in CF this & next season, but in 2026, he'll be 31. Where is his speed and defense by then? Is he still a CF at that point? Not old, but I'm sure that's the age where there might be the first signs of some regression for a CF.

The best team friendly deal would be buying out his last year of arbitration on a 2 year deal w/ a 3rd year option. I don't think Mullins would want to sign that deal. I think Mullins as a CF, with his age and durability, might be an overpay if we extend him. Love him, but not sure he's the guy after next season. He's probably going to want at least 4 years 80-100 Mil, and he might become a slightly above average LF w/ a below avg arm that hits 15-20 HRs and steals 15-20 bases at a .730 OPS clip during his age 31-34 seasons.

 

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s only 3 possible explanations:

1.  Mullins didn’t get a great jump.  (Always hard to tell on a replay.)

2.  Mullins isn’t that fast anymore and a speedier CF wouldn’t have had to dive for it.  

3.  The stat is flawed.   

Take your pick.  


 

3. Cause I love Ced and I’m a homer. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Its a speed thing, I believe.    2024 Mullins is 24th of the 32 rated CF's in sprint speed in the early going.

In 4.2 seconds, if you estimate it takes about 1.2 seconds getting up to speed, the faster CF's cover 3-6 extra feet in pursuit and maybe put that ball in their hip pocket.

Highlight reel finishes occur at the perimeter of the fielder's range but don't relate to if the range is big or small.     Mullins is on the Adam Jones half of the football field of his CF career and is still a fantastic player.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=2&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1954&season=2024&pos=cf

By coincidence, it looks like today Mullins has 2277 Orioles PA to Jones' 6841, almost precisely 1/3rd.     Triple Mullins' fWAR and he beats AJ by 25%.

Mullins is 14th in ft/per average, with all outfielders and I don't think it was updated since last night.

That's still well above average. So yes, there are speedier outfielders but I still think that catch has to be higher than a 65% catch percentage. 

[btdart20]

Mullins is swinging the bat well right now.  His LD rate is up and his PU rate is down.  If that continues, he's in for a really good offensive year.  The last time he was able to keep his PU rate down this low was 2021.

K% is a small question mark.  But if it comes with power in the 6 or 7 spot, I'll take it.

It's a SSS and can regress quickly.  But we're now seeing what we've wanted to see the last 2 years.

[TommyPickles]

Cedric Mullins is only 29 years old. 

He's been an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, a 30-30 player, and has received MVP votes.

Out of all players who have played at least 1500 innings in CF since the start of 2022, he ranks 4th in DRS (13) according to Fielding Bible.

Out of all players in baseball who played at least 125 games in CF each season, he was 2nd in OPS in 2021 (.878), 7th in OPS in 2022 (.721), and is currently 3rd in OPS this season for everyday CF'ers (.872), behind Trout and Merrill.

He's been worth 13.5 rWAR over the past 3 seasons and change.

He's a consensus Top 10 center fielder.

Edited April 16 by TommyPickles

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Its a speed thing, I believe.    2024 Mullins is 24th of the 32 rated CF's in sprint speed in the early going.In 4.2 seconds, if you estimate it takes about 1.2 seconds getting up to speed, the faster CF's cover 3-6 extra feet in pursuit and maybe put that ball in their hip pocket.

It takes about 3 seconds to get up to speed.   That’s why Statcast measures “jump” as the distance the fielder travels in the first three seconds (further divided into “reaction” in the first 1.5 seconds and “burst” in the second 1.5).   Mullins is doing very well on jump this year, at +2.4 feet (covering 37.8 feet).  He wasn’t as good last year.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outfield_jump

[Just Regular]

I believe we'll see some Mullins-EBJ overlap next season, and Mullins-EBJ-Cowser units should be pretty sweet.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, ScGO's said:

He's a Free Agent after the 2025 Season. You gotta think someone will be in the mix for the O's in CF by the start of 2026 right? He's definitely the guy in CF this & next season, but in 2026, he'll be 31. Where is his speed and defense by then? Is he still a CF at that point? Not old, but I'm sure that's the age where there might be the first signs of some regression for a CF.

The best team friendly deal would be buying out his last year of arbitration on a 2 year deal w/ a 3rd year option. I don't think Mullins would want to sign that deal. I think Mullins as a CF, with his age and durability, might be an overpay if we extend him. Love him, but not sure he's the guy after next season. He's probably going to want at least 4 years 80-100 Mil, and he might become a slightly above average LF w/ a below avg arm that hits 15-20 HRs and steals 15-20 bases at a .730 OPS clip during his age 31-34 seasons.

 

If Ced was willing to take a 3-year deal buying out his last arb deal then yes, I think the Orioles have to consider doing that. 

Now, the question is, do they think Cowser can play CF adequately allowing them to open up LF? He doesn't have enough 2+ star attempts to judge his jump yet, but he's already at 2 OAA and he looks like the guy I've seen in the minors defensively. His sprint speed is 73rd percentile this year and Ced is only slightly faster at 78th percentile.

The issue is that Cowser is a big dude and will slow faster than Mullins did. There is also Bradfield possibility in two years or so if he can start driving the ball more.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It takes about 3 seconds to get up to speed.   That’s why Statcast measures “jump” as the distance the fielder travels in the first three seconds (further divided into “reaction” in the first 1.5 seconds and “burst” in the second 1.5).   Mullins is doing very well on jump this year, at +2.4 feet (covering 37.8 feet).  He wasn’t as good last year.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outfield_jump

I don't think Ced was ever fully healthy last year. He looks healthy this year for sure.

[interloper]

That was a sick catch, stat be damned. I blame positioning, if anything. 

Seems like Ced always pairs a good defensive game with a good offensive game. He's locked in right now. 

[BRobinsonfan]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

How's Gunnar doing in that spot? Mullins has done well there in the past. 

To the extent these things mean anything, last year Mullins hit .242 with a .335 OBP out of the leadoff position. Batting 6th he hit .333 with a .372 OBP. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

That was a sick catch, stat be damned. I blame positioning, if anything. 

Seems like Ced always pairs a good defensive game with a good offensive game. He's locked in right now. 

Positioning doesn’t affect catch probability.  It’s a function of hang time and distance.   

[ScGO's]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

If Ced was willing to take a 3-year deal buying out his last arb deal then yes, I think the Orioles have to consider doing that. 

Now, the question is, do they think Cowser can play CF adequately allowing them to open up LF? He doesn't have enough 2+ star attempts to judge his jump yet, but he's already at 2 OAA and he looks like the guy I've seen in the minors defensively. His sprint speed is 73rd percentile this year and Ced is only slightly faster at 78th percentile.

The issue is that Cowser is a big dude and will slow faster than Mullins did. There is also Bradfield possibility in two years or so if he can start driving the ball more.

 

 

I wish Ced was 26 years old.  I think Cowser fits in our LF really well, and you're right, he's big and gonna get bigger. Hopefully Bradfield or Fabian is ready for CF by 2026, you'd still like veteran presence in CF at that time. Maybe a trade or FA signing happens before then?

[BRobinsonfan]

43 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree. And that’s why we need the knowledge/wisdom/insight for vet posters like you and others (I don’t want to call names at the risk of excluding someone - but you know who you are). 

Otherwise, this board will deteriorate and become like the crazy town that the main message board is for the other pro sports franchise in town. We gotta keep that from happening here.

I don't mind the new posters so much, its the veterans with thousands of posts who are quick to make absolute declarations about the ultimate value – or lack thereof – of a player based on an extremely small sample size. Those are the ones who frustrate me.