The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I suspect Ortiz and probably Cruz had some substances that were foreign to their bodies that boosted their performance. But there are super labs (especially in the DR) that are dedicated to that kind of thing. And we don't know with certainty who is taking what (whether legal or not).

I'm most certainly not accusing Anthony Santander of anything. But I am stating that I see nothing in what he is doing offensively to suggest there is any fall off or slow down coming.

Probably?

He was suspended 50 games.

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You can think about it.  I’m fine in my belief that Elias will not trade Basallo.   This is not me saying they can’t trade Basallo.   This is me telling you that Elias isn’t going to trade Basallo.

Basallo is expendable even if they don’t sign Santander.   That doesn’t make it a good idea to do it.   Signing a soon to be 30 yo Santander for 3-4 years so you feel comfortable trading a 19 yo top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball doesn’t seem like an “always keeping one eye on the long term” Elias type of move.   Joey Ortiz and Hall were a different level of expendable.

My argument is that if (and I'm not saying the O's will or even should trade Basallo) but if Basallo can land you a comparable talent on the pitching side of the equation you should at least think long and hard about it.

The reality is that we have an imbalance of org talent slanted heavily in the direction of position players. IMO we are going to have to find a way to add meaningful pitching talent (especially given all of the losses this season due to injury and in future seasons due to injury and FA).

[24fps]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Actually we don't have a blueprint of what Elias will do.  He has only been in one competitive playoff race.  I don't think he calculated the O's odds were good enough in 2022 to spend resources.  He spent minimally last year.  The picks spent for Flaherty are likely to never be ML regulars.  At some point, Elias will attempt to strengthen the rotation and bullpen.  If that involves a TOR starter, it will likely have to include one of the prized 3.  If Elias is giving up one of them, there will be multiple years of control involved. 

I think the Burnes trade offers some insight.  Elias wasn't afraid to trade two solid prospects for a blue chip starter and the price for equivalent talent will be a little steeper at the trade deadline.

Whatever the outcome I think this trade deadline will be a good litmus test for both Elias and many OH posters on the prospect valuation front.

[Allan Bryant]

1 hour ago, casadeozo said:

Stating the obvious but adding a star level starting pitcher at the deadline is not something this team will do. We have 2x legit #1’S right now, and as SG said  if Cole Irvin is pitching game 3 for you in the playoffs he’s likely not pitching past the 5th inning.  So shoring up the bullpen and adding a bat like Mayo to getting meaningful at bats is the more sound strategy.

Again Elias has said this is a long term strategy multiple times. We’re not the Yankees or dodgers ready to spend wildly with prospect capital to replace a carbon copy of a pitcher the minute they go down with an injury.

Nice analysis , I forgot about Elias’ long term strategy comment .  It may not headlines making but it might prolong the window for the team.

Agree with your we’re not the Dodgers or Yankees. The Padres thought they are , lol .  Just saw the standings and they’re 35-37  ?  For all that money they spent , smh 

[Allan Bryant]

8 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I think the Burnes trade offers some insight.  Elias wasn't afraid to trade two solid prospects for a blue chip starter and the price for equivalent talent will be a little steeper at the trade deadline.

Whatever the outcome I think this trade deadline will be a good litmus test for both Elias and many OH posters on the prospect valuation front.

Wouldn’t this be new owner Rubenstein first deadline appearance ?  I like see how Elias works with him in the background 

[Frobby]

On 6/17/2024 at 10:36 AM, Bemorewins said:

Oh that's the reason. I wonder why Hyde does that? Please feel free to share.

Irvin: 5.72 IP per start

Rodon: 5.67 IP per start 

Suarez: 4.95 IP per start 

Suarez’s numbers are slightly skewed, I think, by the fact that he had to ramp back up to starting.  He’d still be below Rodon, but north of 5 IP.

[CaptainRedbeard]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kopech:  Has been a favorite of mine but admittingly its based off of what he did as a reliever in 2021 and the idea that getting him here will make a big impact. There isn't much to point to about him outside of his ability to get Ks and miss bats.  Everything else is below average to awful. This would need to be something that the Os see in him that they think they can fix.  He has some of the best stuff in the sport.

The pitching models still LOVE Kopech, even when you account for the command. His stuff is that good. He has a 111 Pitching+, which is 14th for RPs with 20+ IP. He should have a 2.30 ERA per PitchingBot, which is 6th. 

Some team that puts weight on that is going to trade for him. There’s not a whole lot else to like. I think the Orioles are one of those teams.

I’d definitely like a better RP than Kopech, but I do think the Oriole pen is missing a guy with plus plus fastball and high K rate, for extra innings in the regular season and for runner on third & less than 2 out situations in the playoffs.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

Nice analysis , I forgot about Elias’ long term strategy comment .  It may not headlines making but it might prolong the window for the team.

Agree with your we’re not the Dodgers or Yankees. The Padres thought they are , lol .  Just saw the standings and they’re 35-37  ?  For all that money they spent , smh 

The Padres had a terminally ill owner.

Not sure that is worth laughing about but hey, you do you.

[Philip]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

My argument is that if (and I'm not saying the O's will or even should trade Basallo) but if Basallo can land you a comparable talent on the pitching side of the equation you should at least think long and hard about it.

The reality is that we have an imbalance of org talent slanted heavily in the direction of position players. IMO we are going to have to find a way to add meaningful pitching talent (especially given all of the losses this season due to injury and in future seasons due to injury and FA).

This is correct. The downside of “grow bats/buy arms,” is the resulting imbalance. I’m really disappointed we didn’t take an arm in the rule 5 draft. It would been a ~nothing cost opportunity. 
Re: trading Basallo or whomever. I don’t care, this isn’t the risen Savior we’re talking about, here. If we can get legit value back, I don’t know why so few are willing to make that deal.

However, the Burnes trade stands out as the exception to ME’s typical trade MO. I think he’s going to get someone like Jose Soriano, who has a lot of blue on his Savant page, and  gives up a lot of very hard contact but mostly on the ground.

I wouldn’t trade Basallo for him, but the wonderful thing about the Angels is that they need everything.

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Probably?

He was suspended 50 games.

That's a fact. You're right.

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

My argument is that if (and I'm not saying the O's will or even should trade Basallo) but if Basallo can land you a comparable talent on the pitching side of the equation you should at least think long and hard about it.

The reality is that we have an imbalance of org talent slanted heavily in the direction of position players. IMO we are going to have to find a way to add meaningful pitching talent (especially given all of the losses this season due to injury and in future seasons due to injury and FA).

Sure.  I agree to an extent.   Elias obviously enjoys having depth, both for the ML team and for trading pieces.  It’s just my opinion that there are certain guys he’s unwilling to include.   He should be able to get upgrades even without those three on the table.   Hypothetically, if Elias offered Kjerstad + for Crochet and the WS insisted on Basallo or Mayo, I believe Elias would move to plan B.   He’s willing to give up something for short term gains but he’s going to draw the line somewhere.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Padres had a terminally ill owner.

Not sure that is worth laughing about but hey, you do you.

Oh, please!   There you go again.

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The pitching models still LOVE Kopech, even when you account for the command. His stuff is that good. He has a 111 Pitching+, which is 14th for RPs with 20+ IP. He should have a 2.30 ERA per PitchingBot, which is 6th. 

Some team that puts weight on that is going to trade for him. There’s not a whole lot else to like. I think the Orioles are one of those teams.

I’d definitely like a better RP than Kopech, but I do think the Oriole pen is missing a guy with plus plus fastball and high K rate, for extra innings in the regular season and for runner on third & less than 2 out situations in the playoffs.

Stuff+ doesn't look at if a ball is a strike or not. What good is having incredible Stuff+ numbers if you have a WHIP of 1.500. I'm sure Fujinami has great Stuff+ numbers but we all know he can't pitch. I have no idea what PitchingBot is, but Kopech's FIP is 5.67. His xERA is 4.26 and the statcast models do not LOVE Kopech. His Pitching Run Value is negative for every pitch he throws. He's well below average in every area except for xBA, Fastball Velocity, Whiff%, K% and Extension. Every other model is below average to poor. He's prone to giving up HRs as well.

[Malike]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Padres had a terminally ill owner.

Not sure that is worth laughing about but hey, you do you.

I didn't know this, I suspect a lot of people who aren't fans of the Padres didn't know this.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

This is correct. The downside of “grow bats/buy arms,” is the resulting imbalance. I’m really disappointed we didn’t take an arm in the rule 5 draft. It would been a ~nothing cost opportunity. 
Re: trading Basallo or whomever. I don’t care, this isn’t the risen Savior we’re talking about, here. If we can get legit value back, I don’t know why so few are willing to make that deal.

However, the Burnes trade stands out as the exception to ME’s typical trade MO. I think he’s going to get someone like Jose Soriano, who has a lot of blue on his Savant page, and  gives up a lot of very hard contact but mostly on the ground.

I wouldn’t trade Basallo for him, but the wonderful thing about the Angels is that they need everything.

Perhaps you haven’t heard but our pitching’s been pretty good this year even after losing Bautista (last year), Means, Wells, and Bradish.