The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Philip]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Perhaps you haven’t heard but our pitching’s been pretty good this year even after losing Bautista (last year), Means, Wells, and Bradish.  

Yes, and? Its been pretty good so far. And we just basically replaced Bradish with Povich. Or Kremer with Povich…your choice.

Some people might find that a bit worrisome.

I doubt seriously that you see no need for any quality additions, but if you do, that’s fine.

[deward]

8 minutes ago, Malike said:

Yeah, I'd probably be more concerned with other things.

An owner getting a 2-3 year prognosis and telling the GM of his (that's never won a championship before) not to worry about the budget for a while doesn't seem unreasonable. It doesn't strike me as much different than an older owner making a big push to try and win something while they're still around to enjoy it. It didn't work out how he would have hoped, but hopefully he at least got some pleasure out it. 

[Aristotelian]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As of today, there are 5teams that i think are definite sellers...the Rockies, Marlins, A's, White Sox and Angels

Best relievers amongst those teams:

Andrew Nardi: ERA is over 5 but FIP is under 3.  His statcast numbers are solid.  His K rate is over 10 and his BB rate is 2.4.  He was good last year.  Lefty reliever

Tanner Scott: We all know about Scott.  His ERA is under 2 now.  The K rate has jumped up to almost 10 but the walk rate is 6.5.  His statcast page is also excellent.

Estevez:  LA closer.  Good K rate, great walk rate. xERA 2.66. Statcast page is good in some areas but he also allows a lot of hard hit balls.

Luis Garcia:  Very good K rate, solid BB rate.  Statcast numbers aren't bad but like Estevez, he can give up some hard contract.  xERA is over 4 but FIP is 3.58, much better than his actual ERA.  Should see improvement.

Kopech:  Has been a favorite of mine but admittingly its based off of what he did as a reliever in 2021 and the idea that getting him here will make a big impact. There isn't much to point to about him outside of his ability to get Ks and miss bats.  Everything else is below average to awful. This would need to be something that the Os see in him that they think they can fix.  He has some of he best stuff in the sport.

Obviously we know about Mason Miller.  He is the best of the bunch but I wouldn't pay what it will likely cost to get him.  Erceg is hurt.

 

As I have talked about before, Nardi would be my target. I think hes the best of the bunch and being left handed is a bonus.  The 5+ ERA he has will hopefully allow the Os to get him cheaper too. 

 

But I would target any of these guys and I believe we need at least 2 new relievers.

I would wait and see who is left standing out of HOU, TEX, CIN, and PIT. Bednar might be my top target if he keeps pitching well or the 15 K/9 guy from CIN. 

[Malike]

Just now, deward said:

An owner getting a 2-3 year prognosis and telling the GM of his (that's never won a championship before) not to worry about the budget for a while doesn't seem unreasonable. It doesn't strike me as much different than an older owner making a big push to try and win something while they're still around to enjoy it. It didn't work out how he would have hoped, but hopefully he at least got some pleasure out it. 

Like I said, I didn't know he was sick, I don't pay attention to the Padres at all and it's never been front page of any site that I frequent. If the prognosis is years that paints a different picture.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Crochet is one of the most talented starting pitchers in baseball.   He has 2+ years of control.  It makes no sense for the WS to trade him unless they can get top value back.  That probably means a top 20 guy like Basallo, Mayo, or Holliday.   The Padres, under Heller, might be a team willing to trade such a prospect in Ethan Salas.  Obviously, I don’t know for sure.

All of this talk about Crochet on an innings limit and he might need load management or might not hold up until September is total guesswork.  He might not help a team in October.  He might be a post season hero.  One thing is for sure.  He’s an elite talent and is pitching like one and, to this point, has shown no signs of injury or fatigue.   Someone is probably going to take the plunge.

IMO the Padres are the team who can least afford to give away any more future assets they are running a bit thin. And some of their higher priced players are starting to age. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over while continuously getting the same (undesirable) results.

If Elias values Crochet the way that you appear to, then maybe he is worth strongly considering acquiring?

I can't see them moving Holliday. But again there are scenarios in which one of Mayo/Basallo are expendable long term (even if one or both turn into all-star level players).

[Greg Pappas]

Why 2025+ is important in any trade discussions ... just with regards to position players: 

There is a chance the Orioles will have two openings in the outfield beginning next season.  Any or all of Santander, Mullins, and Hays could be gone after the season.  If that happened, it would leave Cowser as the only high-probability starter.  Odds are Cowser would be our CF, but regardless, we'd need to fill those two other spots.  Replacement candidates for COF's, IMHO, are Kjerstad, Norby, and Stowers.  In that group it would seem that only Stowers can play solid defensively in the outfield.  FWIW I don't believe Beavers or Fabian or Cook would be strongly considered to start, nor do I expect Elias to ask Holliday to get reps in CF or Mayo in RF (even though both have merit).  Ryan O'Hearn can play a decent-at-best RF but should not be counted on to start there.  

So, if we deal away any of Kjerstad, Norby or Stowers, we'd weaken our options beyond this season.  Again, this assumes we would not attempt to resign/extend Santander (big assumption) or bring back Mullins and Hays with the intention of them starting.

As well, beginning next season we may find ourselves in an interesting situation within the infield.  With Mountcastle at 1B, Gunnar at SS and Westburg at either 3B or 2B, there would only be room for either Holliday or Mayo to start regularly.  One possible solution is trading Mountcastle this off-season.  That would allow Mayo to take over at 1B, assuming the O's would be comfortable with his defense at 1B.  Another less likely way to resolve the matter is having Mayo getting a crash course this winter in playing RF OR having Holliday do the same in CF.  Again, not anticipating either.

Naturally, there is always the possibility of trading for an outfielder or signing one.  

My point is that there is much to consider in weighing this season versus future seasons.  Watching it all unfold fascinating.

 

[Philip]

3 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

Yeah they’re still fine but their offense without Carter OPS’ing over 1.000, with Heim not having a career year, Lowe losing his power, and Garcia losing his plate discipline gains from last year is pretty mediocre. Fangraphs has them as having 11% playoff odds right now, 7 GB of the 3rd wildcard with 5 teams ahead of them. They’re not a definite seller but they definitely could be closer to the deadline. 

Texas has some guys I would love to get, including Jonah Heim, what a terrific partner he would be with Adley.

But Texas is the raining champions, they’re not going to punt on the season, even if they should, for pride reasons.

Edited June 18 by Philip

[deward]

5 minutes ago, Malike said:

Like I said, I didn't know he was sick, I don't pay attention to the Padres at all and it's never been front page of any site that I frequent. If the prognosis is years that paints a different picture.

I didn't really know either until the news of his death, which was kind of a lightbulb moment for me in relation to the extreme all-in approach the Padres had been taking in recent years. The family has kept a lot of details private, but from reading a couple of the articles after he passed, he had already gone through a couple of different tough cancer fights and it was known around the industry that his health was tenuous. I don't know if he got a specific prognosis before the end, but it seems clear that he wasn't taking any time for granted and wanted to push to make things happen while he could. It's not really relevant for the O's, but it has come up now and then when some folks start asking why the O's couldn't try to spend like the Padres - it's clear now that the Padres were in a unique situation.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

IMO the Padres are the team who can least afford to give away any more future assets they are running a bit thin. And some of their higher priced players are starting to age. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over while continuously getting the same (undesirable) results.

If Elias values Crochet the way that you appear to, then maybe he is worth strongly considering acquiring?

I can't see them moving Holliday. But again there are scenarios in which one of Mayo/Basallo are expendable long term (even if one or both turn into all-star level players).

A.J. Preller is apparently a good talent evaluator and an aggressive GM.   I get the feeling he thinks they can keep replacing prospects through the draft and J2 signings.   He’s kind of painted himself into a corner with the current team.  He traded for Arráez.   The Padres were already rumored to be interested in Crochet.  I wouldn’t put it past Heller.  Of course, Crochet isn’t a rental so it’s not quite selling your soul to the devil to trade an Ethan Salas for him.  Not sure what else they have to offer.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Why 2025+ is important in any trade discussions ... just with regards to position players: 

There is a chance the Orioles will have two openings in the outfield beginning next season.  Any or all of Santander, Mullins, and Hays could be gone after the season.  If that happened, it would leave Cowser as the only high-probability starter.  Odds are Cowser would be our CF, but regardless, we'd need to fill those two other spots.  Replacement candidates for COF's, IMHO, are Kjerstad, Norby, and Stowers.  In that group it would seem that only Stowers can play solid defensively in the outfield.  FWIW I don't believe Beavers or Fabian or Cook would be strongly considered to start, nor do I expect Elias to ask Holliday to get reps in CF or Mayo in RF (even though both have merit).  Ryan O'Hearn can play a decent-at-best RF but should not be counted on to start there.  

So, if we deal away any of Kjerstad, Norby or Stowers, we'd weaken our options beyond this season.  Again, this assumes we would not attempt to resign/extend Santander (big assumption) or bring back Mullins and Hays with the intention of them starting.

As well, beginning next season we may find ourselves in an interesting situation within the infield.  With Mountcastle at 1B, Gunnar at SS and Westburg at either 3B or 2B, there would only be room for either Holliday or Mayo to start regularly.  One possible solution is trading Mountcastle this off-season.  That would allow Mayo to take over at 1B, assuming the O's would be comfortable with his defense at 1B.  Another less likely way to resolve the matter is having Mayo getting a crash course this winter in playing RF OR having Holliday do the same in CF.  Again, not anticipating either.

Naturally, there is always the possibility of trading for an outfielder or signing one.  

My point is that there is much to consider in weighing this season versus future seasons.  Watching it all unfold fascinating.

 

If Mayo and Holliday are here next year, one of them most certainly has to move to the OF. There is only one position available. Henderson, Westburg, and Mountcastle are all starting caliber INFs. For a team who is trying to win a WS (like I assume the goal will be again next season) I don't see the wisdom in introducing too much possible volatility at one time due to the variance in performance that young players (first time big leaguers can produce). To have a lineup where Holliday, Mayo, (Kjerstad and Norby for that matter) are all trying to acclimate/figuring out how to hit big league pitching all at the same time does not seem like a wise move and it definitely doesn't seem like something Elias would do.

I'm not sure that I see this is a move that would be ultra-risky or a move that would be for a rebuilding team.

We are obviously going to be in the postseason and we could go all the way. If we were to turn around after a successful season and then jettison all vets and go with a rebuild lineup with half or more being occupied with young players prospects, I think it would come with a lot of negative PR and most likely a negative fan reaction. Teams who are successful and have young stars/cornerstone players under multiple years of control/contract (Rutschman, Henderson) don't typically decide to rebuild/reset in the midst of that.

That could be detrimental to the teams bottom line and that would be a hard sell to an owner who has just taken over the team.

[Allan Bryant]

36 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

When you speak of "window" what are you referring to?

I ask because I don't see a plausible reality where you constantly lose difference making/super star players and just churn out others to replace them regularly. Like I don't see us finding another Gunnar Henderson or being able to trade him for equivalent value. That philosophy seems to be rooted in ego and hubris. And I don't that will end well. Because you give yourself such a thin margin for error.

I can't see us taking say Burnes and/or Gunnar, Adley off of future teams and then somehow being better than we are now. Special doesn't just grow on trees and is not easily replaced. We don't have to be the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, or Padres. Just because you don't spend at the very top doesn't mean that you shouldn't spend. You know who else is spending and winning? - The Phillies. They are actually outspending the Dodgers on payroll this season. Not saying that the O's have to or should be as high. But I am saying that there are teams in the top 7 who are loosing and winning AND teams in the bottom 7 who are winning (us and CLE) but most are losing.

It's all about HOW you spend.

To answer your question . Do you remember the 2018 when Orioles crash and burned ?  That is definition‘window closed ‘ ( at least mine ) . In 2017 , Orioles apparently thought they had one more shot to WS , they didn’t sell ( in hindsight they should have) .  So when you hear anyone mention window , it’s a baseball reference to opening or closing competitive winning 

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A.J. Preller is apparently a good talent evaluator and an aggressive GM.   I get the feeling he thinks they can keep replacing prospects through the draft and J2 signings.   He’s kind of painted himself into a corner with the current team.  He traded for Arráez.   The Padres were already rumored to be interested in Crochet.  I wouldn’t put it past Heller.  Of course, Crochet isn’t a rental so it’s not quite selling your soul to the devil to trade an Ethan Salas for him.  Not sure what else they have to offer.

Even if that is true about Preller. Someone above him (who ultimately is responsible for stewardship over the franchise's well being especially long term) should step in and stop him.

Preller may believe in his on abilities to that degree. But first and foremost he is looking out for his career (as he should). But the caretaker/steward of the franchise shouldn't let him continue to nuke their future in the process.

I understand that the previous owner probably directed him to do some of those things. But what they are doing is not sustainable and is long term harmful. At some point the mediocrity will lead to public disengagement/disinterest. And that stands will no longer be full.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Allan Bryant said:

To answer your question . Do you remember the 2018 when Orioles crash and burned ?  That is definition‘window closed ‘ ( at least mine ) . In 2017 , Orioles apparently thought they had one more shot to WS , they didn’t sell ( in hindsight they should have) .  So when you hear anyone mention window , it’s a baseball reference to opening or closing competitive winning 

So with a team that has Gunnar Henderson at age 22 (getting ready to turn 23), Adley Rutshman at 26, Jordan Westburg at 25, Colton Cowser at 24, Grayson Rodriguez at 24 (will be 25 later this season after the season), Ryan Mountcastle at 27, plus all of the talent at AAA; you think this team can crash and burn after this year? 

Were you just talking in hypotheticals? Or were you being serious in application to what the Orioles have right now?

I would challenge ANYONE to cite how one or two realistic trades can have next season or the season after that or even the one after that be 2018 or even 2017.

IMO we have at least 3 more World Series shots regardless of what we do at the deadline. And if we do a few extensions to players like Adley and Gunnar, we will have several more shots after that!

I struggle to see how that "window" talk or even comparisons to 2017/2018 are relevant to this situation (except that it is the same org and they wear pretty much the same uniforms except for the City Connect shirts).

[Greg Pappas]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If Mayo and Holliday are here next year, one of them most certainly has to move to the OF. There is only one position available. Henderson, Westburg, and Mountcastle are all starting caliber INFs. For a team who is trying to win a WS (like I assume the goal will be again next season) I don't see the wisdom in introducing too much possible volatility at one time due to the variance in performance that young players (first time big leaguers can produce). To have a lineup where Holliday, Mayo, (Kjerstad and Norby for that matter) are all trying to acclimate/figuring out how to hit big league pitching all at the same time does not seem like a wise move and it definitely doesn't seem like something Elias would do.

I'm not sure that I see this is a move that would be ultra-risky or a move that would be for a rebuilding team.

We are obviously going to be in the postseason and we could go all the way. If we were to turn around after a successful season and then jettison all vets and go with a rebuild lineup with half or more being occupied with young players prospects, I think it would come with a lot of negative PR and most likely a negative fan reaction. Teams who are successful and have young stars/cornerstone players under multiple years of control/contract (Rutschman, Henderson) don't typically decide to rebuild/reset in the midst of that.

That could be detrimental to the teams bottom line and that would be a hard sell to an owner who has just taken over the team.

You bring up some of the reasons that Elias has so much to consider.   Santander is a FA and both Hays and Mullins are certainly not guaranteed to be brought back at this time.  So I don't see it as jettisoning "all vets" but potentially moving on from the questionable production of Hays and Mullins.  You don't believe it's wise to have rookies like Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad up next season and learning to hit big league pitching at the same time.  I understand.  Coming up at mid-season could be an issue, but to start next season Elias, IMHO, will have no qualms in having all three up.  He's been building an elite pipeline for five years to get to this point; a point of annual WS contention with tremendous talent filling out our roster.  That talent will be ready come 2025, if not already. Unless something changes, Urias, Hays and Mullins will not prevent that.  

Who will be playing where is one of those things Elias will need to determine.  It's going to be intriguing to see how it all plays out.

[Camden_yardbird]

With the Phillies having just sent down their CF does a Cedric Mullins for Spencer Turnbull trade make sense.  Obviously you would have to take the temperature in the room given Mullins status as kind of the OG on this team.

Turnbull is a long man for the Phils signed to a 1 year $2m deal.  He was a starter for the Tigers before.

Mullins is empirically replaceable, and Turnbull can act as that longman/starter the Orioles need.

Alternatively, Hays could be substituted for Mullins.