John Smoltz on why pitchers are "breaking" and what we should do about it..

[accinfo]

4 minutes ago, Malike said:

TJS by year. (MiL/MLB)

2016 - 144

2017 - 144

2018 - 134

2019 - 123

2020 - 76

2021 - 151

2022 - 96

2023 - 88

2024 - 46 (and counting)

Tommy John Surgery List (@MLBPlayerAnalys) - Google Sheets

 

Wow that is shocking to me.  I would have never guessed they have actually decreased.  

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Malike said:

TJS by year. (MiL/MLB)

2016 - 144

2017 - 144

2018 - 134

2019 - 123

2020 - 76

2021 - 151

2022 - 96

2023 - 88

2024 - 46 (and counting)

Tommy John Surgery List (@MLBPlayerAnalys) - Google Sheets

 

In other words, there is no factual basis for the statement that the incidence of TJ surgery is increasing, or is somehow being caused by the pitch clock.  Shocker.   Data >>> anecdotal evidence.

[LookitsPuck]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the evidence shows there isn’t more TJ surgery than before 

Yup.

[dystopia]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the evidence shows there isn’t more TJ surgery than before 

Before what?

[emmett16]

8 minutes ago, Malike said:

TJS by year. (MiL/MLB)

2016 - 144

2017 - 144

2018 - 134

2019 - 123

2020 - 76

2021 - 151

2022 - 96

2023 - 88

2024 - 46 (and counting)

Tommy John Surgery List (@MLBPlayerAnalys) - Google Sheets

 

Thanks for posting this.  I was trying to find it.  I remember seeing something similar posted at the beginning of the year when Strider went down. 
 

It interesting that people point to travel ball and kids playing year round baseball as a major factor.  There is a school of thought that the TJs occur because pitchers don’t condition their arms year round.  A large amount of TJs occur at the very beginning of the season.  Folks have pointed to the time off as the culprit.   After going 2-3 months w/o throwing and then ramping up in Feb. and into ST is thought to be a huge stressor and reason for all the TJs early in the season.  

[LookitsPuck]

11 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Before what?

Not much data aggregated prior to 2016. The guy running the TJS tracker is doing it on his own time. I'd love to see some historical info going back decades, though. 

There's this article...but curious how extensive it's been considering there's been improvements to the surgery and it's still a relatively new surgery in terms of adoption which really didn't start taking off until the 90s: https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2018/The-Tommy-John-Surgery-Explosion-in-the-MLB

Edited Tuesday at 19:09 by LookitsPuck

[foxfield]

Disappointing that Smotlz would make this argument.  One would have to assume he is simply making this about pushing back on the pitch clock.  I know we live in a world where people make statements as if they are facts, when they are really just opinions but still...

In my opinion we shouldn't do it that way. 

[emmett16]

I found this article pretty interesting.

https://www.leanblog.org/2024/04/theres-no-special-cause-of-common-cause-variation-tommy-john-surgeries/

[Too Tall]

Palmer had arm problems that he overcame. Thinking back, I don't remeber the Orioles losing a starter due to arm problems in the 70's. I could be misremembering. Plus, those pitchers pitched a lot more innings. Nothing like recent history as far as pitchers'  injuries. And Palmer's peers didn't have the year round facilities to lean on. Hell, they played basketball or worked jobs in the off season.  Us older guys just tougher!! 

Never-the-less, I don't buy Smoltz. It's generally standard for prior generations to ascribe to their way. I think there are probably a number of reasons for the current fragility of pitching - most have been mentioned above - and that organizations as a result will start looking differently at long range contracts. Boras Beware!!!!!!!!!!!!

Next round of bargaining should be interesting as all the experts dive into this issue. Meanwhile, just waiting for the next headline. The list since 2016 above is unreal!  It's almost like Tommy John has become the tonsillectomy of pitching.  

[24fps]

Is the internal brace procedure being included in the TJS data from the last few years?  That would be important to know when trying to understand whether UCL issues have actually decreased recently.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't believe this.  Pitch counts have started at the high school level and they vary by state.  There are typically rules that dictate how often you can throw a pitcher at the youth levels.  

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/high-school-pitch-count-rules-by-state/

There are pitch limits/usage limits in the NCAA, too.

Maybe there's something to the fact that they play more than they used to, but I don't believe kids have put more mileage on their arms than the old days when there was nothing in place to keep them from pitching on a Friday and a Saturday when no one batted an eye.

 

What about year round workouts?

Trying to maximize velocity?

I agree the per game standards have been harsher but years ago in the winter baseball kids were playing basketball, resting etc. Now they have indoor workouts tweaking mechanics. 

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

What about year round workouts?

Trying to maximize velocity?

I agree the per game standards have been harsher but years ago in the winter baseball kids were playing basketball, resting etc. Now they have indoor workouts tweaking mechanics. 

I don't deny that year round workouts could be part of the problem.  

But I really don't see how this goes anywhere else other than to stay where it is.  Yeah, there's an outcry because pitchers are having Tommy John surgeries at an extreme rate but what's going to change?  Guys are going to stop going for max effort and max velocity?  Who doesn't want to add 3-5 mph?

 

[FlaO'sFan]

Here is an article dated 2016. 

https://asmi.org/position-statement-for-tommy-john-injuries-in-baseball-pitchers/#:~:text=Thus in many cases%2C the,has worn out over time.

"Research has shown that the amount of competitive pitching and pitching while fatigued are strongly linked to injury.^4,5,6 Other risk factors may include pitching on multiple teams,⁵ pitching year-round,⁶ playing catcher when not pitching,⁷ poor pitching mechanics,^8,9 and poor physical conditioning.^10,11 Recommendations for youth pitchers are shown on the ASMI Position Statement for Youth Pitchers."

I will add that I was surprised with the data above showing that TJ surgeries are not drastically rising.

Edited Tuesday at 19:59 by FlaO'sFan

[Tryptamine]

I think it was Dr. James Andrews who spoke on TJS a few years ago and how alarmed he was at the number of highschool kids who were getting it and even worse that kids who didn't need it wanted it just to get it out of the way and because they thought it would add velocity. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

To me it seems pretty obvious.   Pitchers are looking for more velocity and more revs/spin.    And they now have to do it without any substance that used to be able to help them achieve that spin without having to torque their arm and mainly their elbow to such a large degree.  It creates tremendous strain on a joint and surrounding tissue that was not made to do that.   Ever since they started cracking down on the sticky stuff, combined with the higher emphasis on revs?  Injuries have sky rocketed.  

 

Which is why I am in favor of allowing certain substances to be used by pitchers as long as the substance does not interfere with the flight of the ball after it has been hit.  In other words it can't be glooped all over the ball.  Just a light substance a pitcher can rub on their hands to get a better feel.  A baseball has stitches that allows for some grip for certain pitches but many pitches the fingers are only on the smooth part. 

But in many many other sports, a player is allowed to used substances on their hands to allow them a better grip or feel.  Tennis.  Bowling.  Handball.   Even basketball to a degree.    Football used to (remember stick um?) but that was outlawed but even now you can wear gloves that actually have better grip than any substance.

Allow the pitchers to use something for a better grip and I think you will see injuries subside quite a bit.