Hyde Hot Seat

[LGOrioles]

16 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Huh? They're about to be a playoff team even with all the injuries and with the current iteration of those guys. 

I’m saying if they got full seasons of those performances from Adley, O’Hearn, Mountcastle, and Gunnar. They’re obviously going to be a playoff team this year.

[LGOrioles]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is so much wrong with this, it’s hard to know where to begin:

1) How much value would the guys who are hurt be bringing to the team?

2) If those guys are here and the scrubs aren’t and they are performing, is as much pressure put on the rest of the team?

3) How much better would the defense be?

4) Would the pen have been even stronger at protecting leads?

5) would Grayson’s presence push Guys to the pen and make that stronger?

6) How many players playing too much would be fresher and better?  How many would be less exposed?

 

To name a few.

I meant that if you got a full season of Adley being replacement level, Mounty and O’Hearn hitting at a 90 wRC+, and Gunnar being a 6 WAR guy instead of the 11 WAR guy he played like in the first half, I don’t think they make the playoffs even with a healthy Westburg, Mateo, Urias, and Coulombe. They are obviously making it this year though. 

[Orioles0615]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Dodgers 

2023 Rays

[Orioles0615]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

They've also got Ohtani.  And Betts who's at 4.7 rWAR this year despite missing time.  Freeman is at 4.4rWAR despite missing a little time. Yamamoto has made more starts this year than Means, Bradish and Wells combined.  Glasnow still gave them 22 starts.  No Kershaw, but I think they knew that was a possibility headed into the season.

I won't deny that they've had their share of injuries but I do believe their overall talent level is better to begin with.  And it's also not like they've been a machine all year, too.  

Funny enough Gunnar has a higher bWAR than Ohtani

[Spy Fox]

5 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I’m saying if they got full seasons of those performances from Adley, O’Hearn, Mountcastle, and Gunnar. They’re obviously going to be a playoff team this year.

That does make more sense. But, I still think they're making it pretty easily in that scenario. The 2024 rotation would have been close to the best in baseball if you had more starts from what we lost and less from the weaker fill-ins. And the offense still would have been solid, if not great. 

It is true that first half MVP Mode Gunnar and All Star Mode Adley were huge to the team's success. If 2025 sees a continuation of the second half downgrades of All Star Gunnar and Scrub Adley, that'll be a problem. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I meant that if you got a full season of Adley being replacement level, Mounty and O’Hearn hitting at a 90 wRC+, and Gunnar being a 6 WAR guy instead of the 11 WAR guy he played like in the first half, I don’t think they make the playoffs even with a healthy Westburg, Mateo, Urias, and Coulombe. They are obviously making it this year though. 

Oh so you mean if your best players were all bad at one time, you wouldn’t get in?  Duh!

I bet if Cole, Judge and Soto combined for 10 WAR this year, the Yankees wouldn’t get in.

I think we have gone full overboard on this stuff and you never go full overboard

Edited yesterday at 17:06 by Sports Guy

[LGOrioles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Oh so you mean if your best players were all bad at one time, you wouldn’t get in?  Duh!

I bet if Cole, Judge and Soto combined for 10 WAR this year, the Yankees wouldn’t get in.

Well that is what’s happened to the Orioles the last 3 months, which is why I said that the underperformances on the position player side has hurt them more than the injuries have. 

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, LGOrioles said:

The problem is that the injuries shouldn’t be too much to overcome. A Yankees team last year with zero depth (only one player besides Judge with a WAR over 2) had a .538 win percentage with him and a .446 win percentage without him. The Orioles had a .662 win percentage through 74 games and have a .455 win percentage since then. 

Mountcastle has only missed a month. Urias has missed a few weeks. Rodriguez and Westburg have missed a month and a half. Coulombe is the only player who really has been hurt this whole slump. Everyone else has been healthy for about half of that slump, if not more. There’s zero excuse for them to be this bad. And this has nothing to do with Hyde, just saying that injuries are an easy excuse and other top teams have dealt with them much better than the Orioles have. 

The Yankees also went 24-9 in Cole's 33 starts and 58-71 in everyone elses he pretty much kept them afloat last season from being really bad.  We were playing over our head in the begining of the season imo and on pace for 108 wins even with a few injuries.  We went from a rotation of Burnes, Bradish, Grod, Means and Kremer to Burnes Grod, Irvin, Suarez, Povich back in June but the offense held it together for us.  If you told anyone in April that Suarez, Kremer, Irvin Povich would make a combined 80 starts by the end of the year i doubt anyone would expect us to be in the playoffs.  

[LGOrioles]

7 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

The Yankees also went 24-9 in Cole's 33 starts and 58-71 in everyone elses he pretty much kept them afloat last season from being really bad.  We were playing over our head in the begining of the season imo and on pace for 108 wins even with a few injuries.  We went from a rotation of Burnes, Bradish, Grod, Means and Kremer to Burnes Grod, Irvin, Suarez, Povich back in June but the offense held it together for us.  If you told anyone in April that Suarez, Kremer, Irvin Povich would make a combined 80 starts by the end of the year i doubt anyone would expect us to be in the playoffs.  

That’s true on the rotation. Suarez has a 3.65 ERA as a starter and Kremer has a better ERA than last year though, so 44 starts from them isn’t bad. Povich has been bad but Irvin’s ERA was still 4.07 as a starter which is more than fine. Honestly, the pitching has been good, especially the SP, and especially with the injuries. The offense is a lot more discouraging. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, LGOrioles said:

I’m with you on Bradish. For my money, he’s better than Burnes and would have been their ace. They didn’t need to replace 70 starts though. If you give Burnes, Kremer, Eflin, and Suarez both 2 more starts, that gives you 89 between those 4 and then 109 with Rodriguez. Bradish, Wells, and Means started a combined 15 games, so that’s 124 between that group. So that’s 38 starts from lower quality pitchers. 

I just posted that the Yankees missed Judge last year for 56 games (about 250 PA’s that are much more valuable than what the O’s have missed this year) and their fall off was much less dramatic. I’m also not even saying it’s on Hyde, I’m saying it’s on the players to figure it out. The injuries obviously do play a part, but you don’t go from a .636 W% from last year through 6/20 of this year, and a .662 W% the first 74 games of this year, to a .455 W% (and near bottom 5 team in the MLB) the last 77 games due to the injuries you mentioned. Coulombe and Bradish were the only ones who missed that whole time chunk too (while being major contributors the first few months), they started struggling with Rodriguez, Westburg, Mountcastle, Mateo, Urias, and Webb still healthy. 

We can agree to disagree on why it's gone south.  IMO, it's a mix of things, the injuries being the number 1 culprit but also replacing those guys with the likes of Holliday and Mayo.  That's a significant downgrade.

But like I also said, some of these guys are who they are.  Cowser is a guy who is prone to nasty cold streaks.  Tony is, too.  IMO, Adley is the most puzzling one because he's never been this bad for this long.  I'd love to know why his patience at the plate have gone out the window.

People were acting like that's who Tony was when he went on that homer barrage and it wasn't.  People were acting like Cowser was going to be a runaway favorite for rookie of the year and he's having his second pretty crappy month in a row.  

So we've got some flawed players that are also going through cold streaks right now, too.  Like I said, it's a mix of injuries, replacing injured players with rookies that are overmatched and guys slumping for extended stretches.   I mean, Tony hit .198 with a .743 OPS last month and he's at a .748 this month.  Thats not completely awful but it's a far cry from his back to back months of .960 and .987.  

[LGOrioles]

Also FWIW, the Orioles have the best BaseRuns record in the AL. The Yankees, Cleveland, and KC have all way over performed based on their actual production. Their offense have been much better than the O’s with RISP and in high leverage situations, and their pitching has a much better LOB% and has been much better with RISP. 

The O’s are definitely struggling, but their sequencing on offense has been terrible most of the season and they have been way underperforming their FIP and xFIP the last 3 months. 

[Moose Milligan]

26 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Funny enough Gunnar has a higher bWAR than Ohtani

Gunnar's playing defense.  

[LookinUp]

There's a long list of why the season has gone in the tank but I haven't seen the list of reasons that Hyde's the guy to right the ship.

The rationale is basically that they were good with Hyde as manager before so he must be the right guy. I just don't buy that. I think great managers do a lot of things, but I've never heard of Hyde bringing any kind of wisdom to the table. Maybe it's all behind the scenes, but I haven't seen it.

I'm not firing him for the sake of firing him. I'm only doing so if I think there's a better person for the job. I feel like that person has to be out there though.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Well that is what’s happened to the Orioles the last 3 months, which is why I said that the underperformances on the position player side has hurt them more than the injuries have. 

But that’s just not true because you are coming up with a very weird and quite frankly unrealistic hypothetical. The injuries are unquestionably the biggest reason.  Nothing is even close.

If you want to say in spite of the injuries, if players were performing, we would have a better chance at the division, I agree with that.

Saying those players not performing is a bigger reason for this “collapse” is just not an opinion founded on reality. Even if you overlook the talent level of those out for the team, look at the crap that is getting the at bats instead. The white Sox field better options than many of these guys.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There's a long list of why the season has gone in the tank but I haven't seen the list of reasons that Hyde's the guy to right the ship.

The rationale is basically that they were good with Hyde as manager before so he must be the right guy. I just don't buy that. I think great managers do a lot of things, but I've never heard of Hyde bringing any kind of wisdom to the table. Maybe it's all behind the scenes, but I haven't seen it.

I'm not firing him for the sake of firing him. I'm only doing so if I think there's a better person for the job. I feel like that person has to be out there though.

So you aren’t firing just to fire him and you think someone would do a better job but you don’t know who that person is or even if they are available?  
 

nope, nothing knee jerk about this at all!