What did DT do wrong tonight?

[bluedog]

My point has been from the get go, our woeful pitching is the root of all the teams problems, and not any lack of fundamentals. Players make mistakes no matter how much coaching goes on. The common denominator of all the problems over the last 12 years has been pitching. Errors, baserunning and other mistakes are common among every team in baseball. I was trying to say we have had these same arguments for the last dozen years no matter who the manager was. Fix the pitching you fix the Orioles.

You really believe that this team has no problems other than our pitching? So the .200 average / sub .600 OPS from the bottom third of the lineup either isn't a problem or its somehow due to our pitching?

Going 0 - 10 in games where we score 4 runs or less is totally the fault of our pitching?

Really. Seriously. What's up with the absolutes from you guys? Can't you say something even moderately defensible like "our woeful pitching is the root of MOST of the team's problems"?

[bluedog]

If you can tell me what he is not doing or doing wrong in preparing his team in terms of fundamentals, I might give what you say some credence. But when you say that DT is reponsible for Jones misjudgement of a ball on the turf, and Brob should be agressive on the base paths except when he shouldn't, I have my doubts that you really know what you are talking about.

Let's start with some basic assumptions -

Yes or No - should an outfielder be more concerned with keeping balls in front of him and holding hitters to a single leading off an inning with a sinker ball pitcher on the mound?

Yes or No - should a runner generally not attempt to go from 1st to 3rd with one out on a single to medium left field, with your best hitter due up and an outfielder with a strong, accurate arm in left?

Yes or No - should a manager generally walk a guy hitting .375 and nearly .500 with runners in scoring position with 2 out in the bottom of the 11th, the game winning run on 2nd, first base empty and a guy hitting .250 up next who's 0 - 3 lifetime with 2 k's against the pitcher on the mound?

Ignore the players for a minute and just tell me if you agree or disagree with these statements.

[El Gordo]

You really believe that this team has no problems other than our pitching? So the .200 average / sub .600 OPS from the bottom third of the lineup either isn't a problem or its somehow due to our pitching?

Going 0 - 10 in games where we score 4 runs or less is totally the fault of our pitching?

Really. Seriously. What's up with the absolutes from you guys? Can't you say something even moderately defensible like "our woeful pitching is the root of MOST of the team's problems"?

This should be obvious. If our pitching is giving up 5 runs or more, and it is very consistently, of course that is the central problem.

[RShack]

For someone who's attempting to paint me as illogical, you sure use a lot of absolutes. No one is absolutely anything. If you'd said "you sometimes" or "you often" or "you seem", I'd be far more inclined to pay attention to what you were saying - but your mega-rant about how I'm the ultimate reactionary fan loses a lot of steam when you put in half a dozen phrases like "every time".

Here's an example of not using an absolute. 90% + of the time (maybe as much as 99%), players are responsible for their successes and failures. That's obvious to any logical sports fan, even me.

But coaches can have a negative or positive effect on players. Since pro sports is played at such a high level that even a small advantage can be the difference between winning and losing, the difference between poor coaching and great coaching can have a huge impact on a team's success.

If a coach / manager consistently has a negative effect it tends to show up in certain types of stats over a long period of time.

If a single player has a bad season, that's probably endemic of a personal issue. If an entire team goes through an extended offensive slump (say over more than 12 months) you might want to look at the batting coach or the hitting philosophy being taught across the organization.

Same thing with a single pitcher or one player's defense or base running. If one or a few players are struggling, its just baseball. If a whole team struggles over a period of months and years, you begin to look for systemic problems.

It's pretty clear that a decade of losing pointed to a problem at the organizational level. No one argues that Peter Angelos was a significant part of our 11 straight losing seasons, even though to my knowledge Peter never picked up a bat or threw a pitch during that span. You don't have to know exactly what Peter was doing to know he wasn't doing a good job of running this team - the turnover in coaches, the losing seasons, drops in fan attendance - they were all indicative of this problem.

The same is true with managers. We don't know how they run their team in most cases. The only way we can judge them is by peripherals - wins and losses and team based stats relative to the rest of the league.

Now you say I cry wolf every time a player does something wrong in a game. So I must have hundreds of threads and posts on OH for the 2009 season alone with me crying wolf yes? I've just looked and I find maybe 8 - 10 negative things I've said this year about the O's on this entire board. Do you really think that's overreacting?

I think I've been very moderate in my criticism of Trembley this year. I've watched every game this season. I've tried to be very positive about the O's this year. I've tried to give Trembley the benefit of the doubt.

Today I decided to say something about him and you go all crazy on me. What's up with that?

And where do I claim to be an expert? I claim to be a fan. That's it. Don't go putting words in my mouth that I didn't say please.

Yes, I characterized your stance in general terms. Mea culpa. And, yes, I meant what I said.

You're nitpicking words and entirely missing the point of what I said.

[bluedog]

This should be obvious. If our pitching is giving up 5 runs or more, and it is very consistently, of course that is the central problem.

His point was that pitching is our only problem. He didn't say "central" problem or "primary" problem. He said "only".

Please tell me that you're not trying to defend the stance that pitching is our only problem...

[bluedog]

Yes, I characterized your stance in general terms. Yes, I meant what I said.

You're nitpicking words and entirely missing the point of what I said.

When you decide to be specific and accurate, let me know.

[El Gordo]

His point was that pitching is our only problem. He didn't say "central" problem or "primary" problem. He said "only".

Please tell me that you're not trying to defend the stance that pitching is our only problem...

Pitching is much more of a problem than things like, fundamentals or situational hitting, or poor defense. Harping on these things borders on nit picking, by comparison.

[bluedog]

Pitching is much more of a problem than things like, fundamentals or situational hitting, or poor defense. Harping on these things borders on nit picking, by comparison.

If you really believe that defense, hitting and fundamentals are trivial compared to pitching, then I'm not sure we can have a useful conversation about baseball.

To be a winner, you have to excel at all aspects of the game.

[El Gordo]

If you really believe that defense, hitting and fundamentals are trivial compared to pitching, then I'm not sure we can have a useful conversation about baseball.

To be a winner, you have to excel at all aspects of the game.

I think:

a) you aren't geniunely trying to have a useful conversation about baseball

b) the O's problems with fundamentals, defense and situational hitting, are indeed trivial in comparison with their problems in pitching

c) when we check the numbers at the end of this month, the truth of the above will become more clear.

[emmett16]

Worrying about the defense and situational hitting on this team instead of the obvious pitching issue, is like worrying about what rims to put on your car before you have the engine running.

[OnlyO'sFanInLV]

i barely caught tonight's game on my phone but why didn't we bunt in the tenth I think. When Mora was up and Markakis and huff where on base with no outs. I don't know if Mora tried disregard this if he did because I was watching pitch by pitch on my phone. But why don't u bunt in that situation. That's not smart baseball at all. Talking about today's game btw.

[Slappy]

I think:

a) you aren't geniunely trying to have a useful conversation about baseball

b) the O's problems with fundamentals, defense and situational hitting, are indeed trivial in comparison with their problems in pitching

c) when we check the numbers at the end of this month, the truth of the above will become more clear.

Poor pitching is our #1 problem. There is no question about that. We have the highest ERA in the AL at 6.01, league average is 4.83. The staff is also dead last in hits allowed, home runs (by a HUGE margin), WHIP, BA against...

As for defense, well... We've allowed 17 unearned runs this year, the average for the rest of the league is around 8. Our run differential is 124-156, a pythagorean record of 9-15, which matches our actual record. Subtract 9 runs against if we played league average defense, and the run differential would be 124-147, a pythagorean record of 10-14. So you could argue the defense has cost us one game this year.

[emmett16]

i barely caught tonight's game on my phone but why didn't we bunt in the tenth I think. When Mora was up and Markakis and huff where on base with no outs. I don't know if Mora tried disregard this if he did because I was watching pitch by pitch on my phone. But why don't u bunt in that situation. That's not smart baseball at all. Talking about today's game btw.

He didn't get it down the first time - second time Millar was 20 feet away from him and he tried to hit it directly past Millar...

[El Gordo]

Let's start with some basic assumptions -

Yes or No - should an outfielder be more concerned with keeping balls in front of him and holding hitters to a single leading off an inning with a sinker ball pitcher on the mound?

Yes or No - should a runner generally not attempt to go from 1st to 3rd with one out on a single to medium left field, with your best hitter due up and an outfielder with a strong, accurate arm in left?

Yes or No - should a manager generally walk a guy hitting .375 and nearly .500 with runners in scoring position with 2 out in the bottom of the 11th, the game winning run on 2nd, first base empty and a guy hitting .250 up next who's 0 - 3 lifetime with 2 k's against the pitcher on the mound?

Ignore the players for a minute and just tell me if you agree or disagree with these statements.

None of this has anything to do with my question, which was, how is DT's preparation poor? What is he doing that he shouldn't be doing or what would you suggest he do to improve things? If you are a good and sincere critic you should be able to answer that. If he had said before the game BRob, be sure not to try to take 3B on a ball hit to medium LF, or AJ, remeber to keep the ball in front of you on this turf, would that have been enough to keep them from doing those very things? Indeed you have no idea weither he did so or not. Have you attended practice before the games? Do you know for a fact that he is prepping his team poorly in terms of fundamentals? I doubt it. That's why I suspect much of what you say is hot air.

[El Gordo]

Poor pitching is our #1 problem. There is no question about that. We have the highest ERA in the AL at 6.01, league average is 4.83. The staff is also dead last in hits allowed, home runs (by a HUGE margin), WHIP, BA against...

As for defense, well... We've allowed 17 unearned runs this year, the average for the rest of the league is around 8. Our run differential is 124-156, a pythagorean record of 9-15, which matches our actual record. Subtract 9 runs against if we played league average defense, and the run differential would be 124-147, a pythagorean record of 10-14. So you could argue the defense has cost us one game this year.

The unearned run business is not as straight foward as the other numbers, Every run after an error is counted as unearned. With a very poor pitching staff that number is bound to be higher than with an average one. A good pitching staff can often pick up the defense after an error. The O's have committed 15 errors. 13 teams have committed that many or more. Yet we have by far the most unearned runs.