Orioles' 40 Man Roster 2009/2010 OffSeason Discussion

[wildcard]

Baez, Mora, Huff, and Hendrickson all come off naturally because of free agency.

I think Sarfate, Pie, and Bass will be traded away during the winter.

Heading into the Rule 5 draft, I would expect:

Pitchers:

Albers

Bass

Bergesen

Berken

Erbe

Guthrie

Hernandez

Johnson, Jim

Johnson, Steve

Matusz

Meredith

Mickolio

Patton

Perez

Perrault

Ray

Sarfate

Spoone

Uehara

Catchers

Wieters

Zaun

Infielders

Andino

Bell

Izturis

Roberts

Snyder

Turner

Wigginton

Outfielders

Fiorentino

Jones

Markakis

Montanez

Pie

Reimold

Scott

First off great work. You know how I enjoy the detail you go through to reach your conclusions.

Comments:

Tillman - One obvious oversight.

Liz - Kind of surprised you would give up on Liz. But you did say the chances were 50-50. I would not just yet. I think he still has a chance to be a good reliever or possibly good trade chip at soon point.

You seem to believe that no free agent will be re-signed before the Rule 5 draft and you could be right. I think there is a good chance the Huff is re-sign because the O's are going to have a hard time attractive a better stop gap 1B until Snyder is ready some time next year.

One of the things that the O's will be doing over the winter is trying to add lefthanded pitching to the pen. For that reason I think there is a good chance the Hendrickson stays.

Hill I am on the fence on Hill mostly because I think MacPhail may keep him on the roster.

Fiorentino You seem conflicted. In your analysis you say there is only a 20% chance he is added and then you add him.

Perrault - You like him at lot. I am on the fence. His age and time in the minors without call up to the majors bothers me. I want to see if the O's call him up in September.

[Crazysilver03]

First off great work. You know how I enjoy the detail you go through to reach your conclusions.

Comments:

Tillman - One obviously oversight.

Liz - Kind of surprised you would give up on Liz. But you did say the chances were 50-50. I would not just yet. I think he still has a chance to be a good reliever or possibly good trade chip at soon point.

He seem to believe that no free agent will be re-sign before the Rule 5 draft and you could be right. I think there is a good chance the Huff is re-sign because the O's are going to have a hard time attractive a better stop gap 1B until Snyder is ready some time next year.

One of the things that the O's will be doing over the winter is trying to add lefthanded pitching to the pen. For that reason I think there is a good chance the Hendrickson stays.

Hill I am on the fence on Hill mostly because I think MacPhail may keep him on the roster.

Fiorentino You seem conflicted. In your analysis you say there is only a 20% chance he is added and then you add him.

Perrault - You like him at lot. I am on the fence. His age and time in the minors without call up to the majors bothers me. I want to see if the O's call him up in September.

Tillman was an oversight on my part.

Liz might make it through the Rule 5 draft but will probably be one of the first options if a spot is needed. I think it is telling that the Orioles had Waters in Detroit and not Liz.

Huff will probably be kept but I think if it does happen it won't be until after the new year.

Hill will most certainly be gone, especially because he is arbitration eligible this off-season.

Fiorentino was a hard one. I left him at 20% because it really depends on MacPhail deciding to trade Pie this off-season. They could also just try to keep him on a minor league deal with a major league invite.

Perrault won't be called up until after Norfolk is out of the race but I really like him as a darkhorse. I was one of the few that predicted Wilfrido Perez would be protected last year and I have the same feeling regarding Perrault, especially because the Orioles got him during the minor league Rule 5 draft, showing that they were scouting him and really wanted him.

[wildcard]

Tillman was an oversight on my part.

Liz might make it through the Rule 5 draft but will probably be one of the first options if a spot is needed. I think it is telling that the Orioles had Waters in Detroit and not Liz.

Huff will probably be kept but I think if it does happen it won't be until after the new year.

Hill will most certainly be gone, especially because he is arbitration eligible this off-season.

Fiorentino was a hard one. I left him at 20% because it really depends on MacPhail deciding to trade Pie this off-season. They could also just try to keep him on a minor league deal with a major league invite.

Perrault won't be called up until after Norfolk is out of the race but I really like him as a darkhorse. I was one of the few that predicted Wilfrido Perez would be protected last year and I have the same feeling regarding Perrault, especially because the Orioles got him during the minor league Rule 5 draft, showing that they were scouting him and really wanted him.

Hill - I don't see arbitration as a problem because he only makes 445K this year and being injured he can't get much more. The O's could offer him a non-guaranteed contract and he would probably take it.

Perrault - there is a world of difference between Perez and Perrault. Last year Perez was 24 and lefthanded. Perrault is 27 and righthanded in a system that is righthanded dominanted. I will wait to see if he is called up in Sept after Norfolk is done.

The other thing to think about is that Miller is 27 and righthanded and you are not thinking that he should be on the roster. Matter of fact you are taking him off the roster. He has pitched 50 innings at AAA to a 2.50 ERA.

[Crazysilver03]

Hill - I don't see arbitration as a problem because he only makes 445K this year and being injured he can't get much more. The O's could offer him a non-guaranteed contract and he would probably take it.

Perrault - there is a world of difference between Perez and Perrault. Last year Perez was 24 and lefthanded. Perrault is 27 and righthanded in a system that is righthanded dominanted. I will wait to see if he is called up in Sept after Norfolk is done.

The other thing to think about is that Miller is 27 and righthanded and you are not thinking that he should be on the roster. Matter of fact you are taking him off the roster. He has pitched 50 innings at AAA to a 2.50 ERA.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree regarding Hill. I think the Orioles will play it safe regarding money and he is taken off the 40 man roster.

You are correct that Perez and Perrault are in different situations. My main reason for thinking Perrault will be protected, besides his impressive numbers, is that the Orioles went out of their way to get him.

Regarding Miller, while he has a 2.50 ERA, he also has a 1.36 WHIP in 50 innings, compared to Perrault's 1.91 ERA (Bowie and Norfolk) in 56.2 innings, with a 0.95 WHIP. In 16.2 IP at Norfolk, he has a ridiculous 23:1 K/BB ratio.

[wildcard]

The trade of Zaun opens a spot on the 40 man roster. The Backup catcher will probably not be filled until after the Rule 5 draft.

[Sports Guy]

No way can you protect Fiorentino...Let him go if someone claims him...He is a dime a dozen guy.

[wildcard]

No way can you protect Fiorentino...Let him go if someone claims him...He is a dime a dozen guy.

Pie and Scott may be two of MacPhail's bargaining chips this winter. Fiorentino is in position to be the 4th OF if one of both get traded.

[wildcard]

Starters

1. Bergy - 24

2. Hernandez - 24

3. Guthrie - 31

4. Tillman - 21/22

5. Matusz - 23

Relievers

6. J Johnson - 26

7. Albers - 27

8. Uehara - 35

9. Mickolio - 25 - has options

10. Meredith -26 - has options

11. Hendrickson - 35 - re-signed

12. Berken - 26 - has options

Additional pitchers

13. Ray - 28 -has options

14. Bass - 28 - who may be traded but probably not by the Rule 5 draft

15. Sarfate - 29 - who may be traded but probably not by the Rule 5 draft

16. Perez - 25 - has options

17. Erbe - 22 - has options

18. Perrault - 27 - has options

19. S Johnson - 22 - has options

20. Spoone - 24 - has options

21. Liz - 26 - has options

22. Patton - 24 - has options

23. Hill - 30 - Will be on the DL on opening day/First one I would drop

Catchers

24. Wieters - 23

Outfielders

25. Markakis - 26

26. Jones - 24

27. Reimold - 26

28. Pie - 25

29. Montanez - 28 - has options

30. Fiorentino - 27 - Could be good in trade for a minor leaguer with options

1B

31. Snyder - 23 - has options

32. Hughes - 26 -has options

2B

33. Roberts- 32

34. Turner - 25 - has options

SS

35. Izturis - 30

36. Andino - 25/26

3B

37. Wigginton - 32

38. Bell - 22 - has options

DH

39. Scott

Exposed

Pauley - 26

Miller - 27/28

McCrory - 27

Waters - 29

Castillo - 34

Gathright - 28/29

Mora - 38 - FA

Moeller - 35

Baez - 32 - FA/Trade possible in August

Simon - 28

Does not need to be protected

Arrieta - 24 - has options

Britton - 22 - has options

Waring - 24 - has options

Added Perrault. CrazySilver makes a good argument. He does have options, doesn't he?

[Sports Guy]

Pie and Scott may be two of MacPhail's bargaining chips this winter. Fiorentino is in position to be the 4th OF if one of both get traded.

Pie really doesn't much value unless he gets a lot of playing time down the stretch and performs very well.

Montanez should be ahead of Fio.

[Anonymous]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree regarding Hill. I think the Orioles will play it safe regarding money and he is taken off the 40 man roster.

You are correct that Perez and Perrault are in different situations. My main reason for thinking Perrault will be protected, besides his impressive numbers, is that the Orioles went out of their way to get him.

Regarding Miller, while he has a 2.50 ERA, he also has a 1.36 WHIP in 50 innings, compared to Perrault's 1.91 ERA (Bowie and Norfolk) in 56.2 innings, with a 0.95 WHIP. In 16.2 IP at Norfolk, he has a ridiculous 23:1 K/BB ratio.

The bad news about his torn labrum is that it's an atrocious injury. The good news is that it's at least conceivable that this serves as the central element explaining why his performance was so bad this year -- meaning that if he does rehabilitate successfully, there exists at least some reasonable possibility that he could be MUCH better in the future.

Considering that he's still very cheap at this point, I think this is one horse we've got to ride. We always talk about looking for high-risk, high-potential-reward guys. This is an example of zero-risk, low-cost, high-potential-reward. I'm pretty confident that whoever would get bumped from the 40-man in order to make room for Hill will not have a ceiling even approaching that which Hill might offer.

[Anonymous]

Pie really doesn't much value unless he gets a lot of playing time down the stretch and performs very well.

Montanez should be ahead of Fio.

I assume that wc put Fio ahead of Lou only because we know that Fio can play CF, whereas with Montanez we either don't know that he can or we do know that he can't (depending on who's answering the question).

I'm hoping that Montanez dedicates himself this Winter to transforming himself into a passable backup CF. If he could succeed in that effort, I don't care if he basically abandoned batting practice. CF defense will determine whether or not he's a feasible option as our 4th OF. If his offense drops off a bit while he concentrates on this other task, so be it. The bat will come back at some point. But defense is the key to his fate with the team.

[wildcard]

Pie really doesn't much value unless he gets a lot of playing time down the stretch and performs very well.

Montanez should be ahead of Fio.

There appears to be no reason to have to chose between Montanez and Fio now. Both can be protected from the Rule 5 draft.

Fio is a better CF which is his edge in getting the 4th OF spot. Montanez is probably a better hitter which is his edge. Montanez has options left and Fio does not.

I say let them fight it out in ST. If Scott is traded then Montanez might be a decent DH.

I see Scott, Pie and righthanded relievers as the three best areas to trade this winter to fill the 3B, SS, 1B and lefthanded reliever holes.

[Crazysilver03]

Added Perrault. CrazySilver makes a good argument. He does have options, doesn't he?

Perrault has never been on a 40 man roster so he has all 3 options remaining.

Pie really doesn't much value unless he gets a lot of playing time down the stretch and performs very well.

Montanez should be ahead of Fio.

I think Pie does have a decent amount of value if teams think he can play everyday.

I am not sure if Montanez or Fiorentino has the more value. Fio is hitting to a .898 OPS in 293 ABs, compared to Montanez's 1.000 in 42 ABs. Fiorentino's defense is also strong. Now, I don't know if you protect him or not. If you think you are going to trade Pie, then protect Fiorentino.

[Crazysilver03]

RZNJ raises a point about Luis Lebron in a recent thread.

Lebron signed as an undrafted free agent at the age of 21 in 2006 and was dominant at Aberdeen, but had a 4.4 BB/9 rate. He was ineffective in 2007 and missed most of 2008 with injury. In limited play this season, he has a .90 WHIP with Bowie, with a 12.4 K/9 but 4.3 BB/9 in 15 appearances.

I think the Orioles might protect him because of the low hit and high K totals, but the high BB totals have been there his entire career. Combined with the past injury, the Orioles might try to get through the Rule 5 draft without having him on the roster. If he gets taken, so be it. They have enough depth.

[Fan of Newhan]

Starters

1. Bergy - 24

2. Hernandez - 24

3. Guthrie - 31

4. Tillman - 21/22

5. Matusz - 23

Relievers

6. J Johnson - 26

7. Albers - 27

8. Uehara - 35

9. Mickolio - 25 - has options

10. Meredith -26 - has options

11. Hendrickson - 35 - re-signed

12. Berken - 26 - has options

Additional pitchers

13. Ray - 28 -has options

14. Bass - 28 - who may be traded but probably not by the Rule 5 draft

15. Sarfate - 29 - who may be traded but probably not by the Rule 5 draft

16. Perez - 25 - has options

17. Erbe - 22 - has options

18. Perrault - 27 - has options

19. S Johnson - 22 - has options

20. Spoone - 24 - has options

21. Liz - 26 - has options

22. Patton - 24 - has options

23. Hill - 30 - Will be on the DL on opening day/First one I would drop

Catchers

24. Wieters - 23

Outfielders

25. Markakis - 26

26. Jones - 24

27. Reimold - 26

28. Pie - 25

29. Montanez - 28 - has options

30. Fiorentino - 27 - Could be good in trade for a minor leaguer with options

1B

31. Huff -33 - re-signed for $5M - could be traded in August - stopgap

32. Snyder - 23 - has options

2B

33. Roberts- 32

34. Turner - 25 - has options

SS

35. Izturis - 30

36. Andino - 25/26

3B

37. Wigginton - 32

38. Bell - 22 - has options

DH

39. Scott

Exposed

Pauley - 26

Miller - 27/28

McCrory - 27

Waters - 29

Castillo - 34

Gathright - 28/29

Mora - 38 - FA

Moeller - 35

Baez - 32 - FA/Trade possible in August

Simon - 28

Does not need to be protected

Arrieta - 24 - has options

Britton - 22 - has options

Waring - 24 - has options

Added Perrault. CrazySilver makes a good argument. He does have options, doesn't he?

I know most wouldn't consider it a huge loss, but I would be a bit upset if Miller never plays another game for the O's and is just let go at the end of the year.

He did pretty well after being recalled last season, was impressive in spring training before getting hurt and has been an all-star closer in AAA this year.

I'm hoping he's given another shot with the big league team.