Better prospect...Bell or Snyder?

[Arthur_Bryant]

If the dude can hit .290- .300 then I dont see why he couldnt be a legit 1B. .

I don't disagree in Snyder's case, but this is not necessarily true in general. There are ways to hit a soft .300 (low OBP with low power) that would lack the offensive impact we'd want from a 1Bman. I don't think Snyder would be in that category, but to say that a .290-.300 BA categorically makes someone a legit 1Bman is just not true.

BA is a useful stat for projecting minor leaguers, and it's an interesting secondary stat in MLB, but it's not nearly as descriptive as OPS.

Give me a slash line of BA/OBP/SLG, with the number of plate appearances, and I'll have a pretty good idea of what kind of hitter he has been. You can't do that with BA alone.

[Frobby]

Just to repeat a point I made earlier, it will be fun to see how they compare when they both play in the AFL on the same team. That will be a small sample, for sure, but it will still be interesting to follow.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Yeah, and everyone wants to hold that stint against him like that is his ceiling and he's done, but who knows what Bell would have done? Will the pitchforks come out if Bell gets off to a slow start in AAA?

I have a feeling that if someone who saw Snyder regularly at AAA were to come to this thread, he'd be astonished at the negativity.

Or put it another way: I am confident that if Snyder comes up and hits 27 p.c. line drives in Baltimore, as he did in Norfolk, we will all be very very happy.

[allstar1579]

I don't disagree in Snyder's case, but this is not necessarily true in general. There are ways to hit a soft .300 (low OBP with low power) that would lack the offensive impact we'd want from a 1Bman. I don't think Snyder would be in that category, but to say that a .290-.300 BA categorically makes someone a legit 1Bman is just not true.

BA is a useful stat for projecting minor leaguers, and it's an interesting secondary stat in MLB, but it's not nearly as descriptive as OPS.

Give me a slash line of BA/OBP/SLG, with the number of plate appearances, and I'll have a pretty good idea of what kind of hitter he has been. You can't do that with BA alone.

Kind of a result of people putting too much stock into certain statistics though. If a guy is hitting .280-.300 for you, depending on where he goes in the lineup, even if he's not walking much, he will produce. Put him in front of two other guys hitting the same (like Roberts, Jones and Markakis did in the early season) and you are going to score some runs. Put him behind some guys getting on base and he's going to have RBI. Getting a hit 30% of your AB will produce if effectively placed in the lineup.

I am a believer that one of the most important statistics to pay attention to is BA with RISP, clutch hitting scores runs.

[allstar1579]

I have a feeling that if someone who saw Snyder regularly at AAA were to come to this thread, he'd be astonished at the negativity.

Or put it another way: I am confident that if Snyder comes up and hits 27 p.c. line drives in Baltimore, as he did in Norfolk, we will all be very very happy.

Yeah, I mean I think as someone hinted at earlier, a lot of it is just there is a new shiny toy (Bell) to root for, so some people will start to under-appreciate Brandon as result. They will both be good players in the end, and we will find a place for them both.

I just remember this time last year people kept coming up with reasons why Bergy wasn't going to succeed in the majors, and why Reimold wouldn't be more than a 4th OF. Until they prove themselves long term in the majors, there will always be doubts.

[Lucky Jim]

Kind of a result of people putting too much stock into certain statistics though. If a guy is hitting .280-.300 for you, depending on where he goes in the lineup, even if he's not walking much, he will produce. Put him in front of two other guys hitting the same (like Roberts, Jones and Markakis did in the early season) and you are going to score some runs. Put him behind some guys getting on base and he's going to have RBI. Getting a hit 30% of your AB will produce if effectively placed in the lineup.

I am a believer that one of the most important statistics to pay attention to is BA with RISP, clutch hitting scores runs.

Ugh, Allstar. I confess, I probably couldn't disagree more with this post. But no need to rehash the "clutch hitting" or batting average arguments.

But the reason why you *want* a good hitting first baseman is simple: talent costs money. And 1B is a place where you can, generally, hide a good bit of offensive production for relatively cheap. Break down:

1. Hitting costs money.

2. Fielding costs money.

3. Guys who can hit + field cost big money.

Thus, at a place like 1B, which is relatively easy to play, and where an otherwise limited first baseman can be adequate, it behooves a team to have as much hitting as possible, because the hitting + adequate fielding will be cheaper.

If they have a guy putting up .280/.350/.475 and other teams have .300/.400/.500+ that means they're going to have to make up that production at other positions - where the extra production will be that much more expensive due to the fielding skill required.

[allstar1579]

Ugh, Allstar. I confess, I probably couldn't disagree more with this post. But no need to rehash the "clutch hitting" or batting average arguments.

But the reason why you *want* a good hitting first baseman is simple: talent costs money. And 1B is a place where you can, generally, hide a good bit of offensive production for relatively cheap. Break down:

1. Hitting costs money.

2. Fielding costs money.

3. Guys who can hit + field cost big money.

Thus, at a place like 1B, which is relatively easy to play, and where an otherwise limited first baseman can be adequate, it behooves a team to have as much hitting as possible, because the hitting + adequate fielding will be cheaper.

If they have a guy putting up .280/.350/.475 and other teams have .300/.400/.500+ that means they're going to have to make up that production at other positions - where the extra production will be that much more expensive due to the fielding skill required.

No, I get that, if you are going to make up for an all-glove SS, the easiest place to do it is 1B where you can stick an all-bat guy. I just think there is more than one way to build a lineup, and you build around the majority of what you have.

[Lucky Jim]

No, I get that, if you are going to make up for an all-glove SS, the easiest place to do it is 1B where you can stick an all-bat guy. I just think there is more than one way to build a lineup, and you build around the majority of what you have.

Right. No one here is saying you can't win w/ a .280/.350./.450 1B who plays average defense. You clearly can. You're just going to pay more to do it. And paying more to do it limits resources. And limiting resources makes it even harder to do it.

You're right. But you've got to look at it two ways. Making up for an all-bat SS is cheaper at first. But it's also more expensive to make up for a below-average 1B than it is to make up for an all-hit SS because the average production out of a SS is lower, and that production can be moved to a number of positions that are less demanding.

[allstar1579]

Right. No one here is saying you can't win w/ a .280/.350./.450 1B who plays average defense. You clearly can. You're just going to pay more to do it. And paying more to do it limits resources. And limiting resources makes it even harder to do it.

You're right. But you've got to look at it two ways. Making up for an all-bat SS is cheaper at first. But it's also more expensive to make up for a below-average 1B than it is to make up for an all-hit SS because the average production out of a SS is lower, and that production can be moved to a number of positions that are less demanding.

Basic economics in the end I suppose, I guess I'm just trying to solve as much as possible in-house before looking at spending the big bucks somewhere to patch holes (which I know we are going to have to do) wishful thinking I suppose that someone will outperform what we think of them and lessen the need to overspend (either in money or talent) to acquire someone.

[Lucky Jim]

Basic economics in the end I suppose, I guess I'm just trying to solve as much as possible in-house before looking at spending the big bucks somewhere to patch holes (which I know we are going to have to do) wishful thinking I suppose that someone will outperform what we think of them and lessen the need to overspend (either in money or talent) to acquire someone.

I think Snyder is a legit option for a contending team. And will continue to until he proves he's not. That said, he's certainly not ideal.

And that's why Bell - who provides a sort-of prototypcial profile of a contending team's 3B (absent that switch-hitting/splits issue) - is probably rightfully considered the better prospect.

[QBsILLEST1]

I don't disagree in Snyder's case, but this is not necessarily true in general. There are ways to hit a soft .300 (low OBP with low power) that would lack the offensive impact we'd want from a 1Bman. I don't think Snyder would be in that category, but to say that a .290-.300 BA categorically makes someone a legit 1Bman is just not true.

BA is a useful stat for projecting minor leaguers, and it's an interesting secondary stat in MLB, but it's not nearly as descriptive as OPS.

Give me a slash line of BA/OBP/SLG, with the number of plate appearances, and I'll have a pretty good idea of what kind of hitter he has been. You can't do that with BA alone.

One thing that people are overlooking is that Snyder has been walking more. I dont expect him to have an OBP 100 points better than his batting average, but he has been hanging right around 70 points higher the whole year which is also right about where Bell is. When he comes up and has an OBP right around 70 points higher than his batting average and he hits a ton of doubles, his OPS will be pretty decent. He also probably has 20 HR potential, his problem with hitting in Norfolk is how deflated his HR numbers got, but his numbers in all honesty I think will look like Nick's line for this season.

Yeah, I mean I think as someone hinted at earlier, a lot of it is just there is a new shiny toy (Bell) to root for, so some people will start to under-appreciate Brandon as result. They will both be good players in the end, and we will find a place for them both.

I just remember this time last year people kept coming up with reasons why Bergy wasn't going to succeed in the majors, and why Reimold wouldn't be more than a 4th OF. Until they prove themselves long term in the majors, there will always be doubts.

This is very true. People were so skeptical on both of these guys. Bergy couldnt get out RHH and Reimold had "holes" in his swing. But shoot, unless your pitching to a tune of 3.50 ERA or hitting .320, then folks here think the guy is a failure. Chris Tillman was pitcing to a 4.33 ERA and people were disappointed. Matusz is K'ing a batter an inning, but he doesnt have "ace" stuff. They just have to come up here and prove a point.

[QBsILLEST1]

I think Snyder is a legit option for a contending team. And will continue to until he proves he's not. That said, he's certainly not ideal.

And that's why Bell - who provides a sort-of prototypcial profile of a contending team's 3B (absent that switch-hitting/splits issue) - is probably rightfully considered the better prospect.

You know what...That sums it up for me. Snyder is legit, but not ideal. The biggest diff would be if Snyder came up and ended up hitting for more power than expected. Bell is Snyder with more power and a lesser bat with slightly more patience and he probably is ideal for a contending team. Id feel more comfortable with Snyder at 3B and Bell at 1B, but what difference does that make except on an individual level.

[olehippi]

I voted for Snyder because I think he will eventually become an all-around better player than Bell. I fully expect to see Snyder grab the 1B job in ST....and it wouldn't surprise me to see Bell do the same at 3B the following year. IMO, 2011 is THE YEAR OF THE ORIOLES in the AL East.

[sangar]

It's actually very close for me, too close to really pick one. They are very different prospects, but I don't know that I can say one is better.

Is that bad or good? You have a lot more knowledge about this than I do and I really would like to hear your opinion about Snyder. When DT said "Snyder has proven that he can hit at all levels" what was he seeing about his AAA performance that so completely eludes me? I'm not criticizing or predicting, I'm simply curious and I'd like to pick your brain.

[QBsILLEST1]

Is that bad or good? You have a lot more knowledge about this than I do and I really would like to hear your opinion about Snyder. When DT said "Snyder has proven that he can hit at all levels" what was he seeing about his AAA performance that so completely eludes me? I'm not criticizing or predicting, I'm simply curious and I'd like to pick your brain.

He held his own at AAA. His plate discipline didnt slip when he made the move to AAA either. When LJ just showed the adjusted data for Snyder, it doesnt look bad at all, he was just extremely unlucky. Its not like Snyder was overmatched or anything, this is why AM said what he said. If you look at Smoak, he had the same BA as Snyder in AAA and Smoak was in the best hitter's league in the minors, PCL(California League may be worse, but thewyre both launching pads).