Viviano Show Question O's/Phils

[Old#5fan]

Please, methinks you need to re-read this thread.

Scottie brought up baserunning and was one of two people to respond to his first post.

Here was OldFan's immediate response:

One little Flacco joke was made, nothing harsh...and then someone said basestealing wasn't a good metric of baserunning...

OldFan's response:

This is when things got out of hand...to act like he was just making non-aggressive, specific statements is plain wrong.

Aggressive overstatements basically right out of the gate...hardly anyone had posted against him at this point. He began with the "beyond normal rebuttal" (well not for him)...people responded in kind.

Don't try to martyr him...he made one defensible statement and then went off again.

I still find it inanely stupid to claim someone is a "better" base runner by using the fact he never got picked off as if that was some kind of measure that means anything. Brooks Robinson probably never got picked off either, but that didn't mean he was a great baserunner or better than Luis Aparicio! He was slow as molasses and smart enough to know it. To me, Markakis is not a good runner because he has average speed and if he was a good runner would sucessfully steal more bases. Simply not making stupid base running blunders doesn't make one a good baserunner. I think good and ultra-conservative are being confused in this case. So no, I am sorry I cannot consider Markakis a "good" baserunner. He at best is not a bad base runner in that he makes good decisions but essentially is too conservative when it comes to taking leads and attempting to steal.

[ejf1025]

I not only do not clearly "dislike" Markakis, nor has it become personal from my end although it doesn't seem that way from your end (not necessarily you, but the over-rating that goes on where he is concerned here).

What I do intensely dislike though is the over-inflated opinions of his present ability and refusal to not only acknowledge his shortcomings but overlook them and consistently attempt to mis-portray him as better than players he is inferior to such as Jayson Werth. The guy hit 36 homers, stole nearly thirty bases, plays a great right field and in short - does it all, yet here he is clearly a better player because certain posters feel that way? Not in my view of which I happen to be unbiased in favor of any Oriole, not just Markakis. If another team's player is better he is better. Its as simple as that.

It is personal...please. You said he should get divorced.

And Werth was clearly a better player THIS year. Nick Markakis was better last year.

So it's not THAT simple...quit trying to make it sound like it's a given that Werth has and will be better...

[ejf1025]

I still find it inanely stupid to claim someone is a "better" base runner by using the fact he never got picked off as if that was some kind of measure that means anything. Brooks Robinson probably never got picked off either, but that didn't mean he was a great baserunner. He was slow as molasses and smart enough to know it. To me, Markakis is not a good runner because he has average speed and if he was a good runner would sucessfully steal more bases. Simply not making stupid base running blunders doesn't make one a good baserunner. I think good and ultra-conservative are being confused in this case. So no, I am sorry I cannot consider Markakis a "good" baserunner. He at best is not a bad base runner in that he makes good decisions but essentially is too conservative when it comes to taking leads and attempting to steal.

Um....did you not see the post about scoring more when he reaches base? Taking extra base more often? Again, did none of that register?

Come defend your boy on this one MWeb...

[Crazysilver03]

I still find it inanely stupid to claim someone is a "better" base runner by using the fact he never got picked off as if that was some kind of measure that means anything. Brooks Robinson probably never got picked off either, but that didn't mean he was a great baserunner. He was slow as molasses and smart enough to know it. To me, Markakis is not a good runner because he has average speed and if he was a good runner would sucessfully steal more bases. Simply not making stupid base running blunders doesn't make one a good baserunner. I think good and ultra-conservative are being confused in this case.

So, first, you ask for quantifiable stats to show Markakis vs. Werth's base-running.

Then, you discount the stat that isn't in Werth's favor. Didn't you say that was what I was trying to do, even though I said I agree with you regarding the base-stealing.

Now, you bring qualifiable material into the argument when the quantifiable material shows you are wrong.

[VTmook213]

I still find it inanely stupid to claim someone is a "better" base runner by using the fact he never got picked off as if that was some kind of measure that means anything. Brooks Robinson probably never got picked off either, but that didn't mean he was a great baserunner. He was slow as molasses and smart enough to know it. To me, Markakis is not a good runner because he has average speed and if he was a good runner would sucessfully steal more bases. Simply not making stupid base running blunders doesn't make one a good baserunner. I think good and ultra-conservative are being confused in this case. So no, I am sorry I cannot consider Markakis a "good" baserunner. He at best is not a bad base runner in that he makes good decisions but essentially is too conservative when it comes to taking leads and attempting to steal.

Ok, then ignore the amount of times they got picked off (a lot of players that steal high quanities of bases get picked off, actually).

Look at the other 4 stats that illustrate how Markakis is a better base-runner. Are those "inately stupid"?

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1962916#post1962916

edit: and about their speed, I again ask:

I've never watched Werth on any sort of regular basis, so I'm just going to assume you're correct that Werth is faster, takes a much larger lead off of bases, and is much more aggressive.

... however, if that's the case, then why does Markakis score much more often from first and second base than Werth does? We know, from what you told us, that Werth leads off farther - so he should have an advantage there over Markakis. And we also know, from what you told us, that Werth is much faster than Markakis because of his long legs and large stride - so he should also have an advantage there over Markakis. And we also know, from what you told us, that Werth is much more aggressive on the basepaths - so he should have an advantage there over Markakis.

And yet somehow Markakis scores more often. Hmmm, how is that possible? Either one of two things is happening:

1) What you told us is incorrect, and Werth is not actually faster/more aggressive than Markakis

2) What you state - that Werth is a vastly superior baserunner - is incorrect

So which is it?

-----------------

Speed is not the only thing required for a player to be good at stealing bases. Chase Utley stole 23 bases this year and wasn't caught once, yet he's not a world-burner. And you can certainly find examples that go the other way, too ... of incredibly fast players who are not good at stealing bases.

[ejf1025]

Here it is for you, for maybe the 5th time?

XBT% (extra base taken on a single or double)

M-41% W-36%

1st S3 (Times as a runner on first and a single is hit and reaches third or scores)

M-12 W-9

PO (Runner picked off)

M-0 W-3

RS% (percentage of times as runner player scores)

M-11% W-10%

2nd SH (Times on second and runner scores on hit)

M-21 W-11

[mweb]

Please, methinks you need to re-read this thread.

Scottie brought up baserunning and was one of two people to respond to his first post.

Here was OldFan's immediate response:

One little Flacco joke was made, nothing harsh...and then someone said basestealing wasn't a good metric of baserunning...

OldFan's response:

This is when things got out of hand...to act like he was just making non-aggressive, specific statements is plain wrong.

Aggressive overstatements basically right out of the gate...hardly anyone had posted against him at this point. He began with the "beyond normal rebuttal" (well not for him)...people responded in kind.

Don't try to martyr him...he made one defensible statement and then went off again.

No, you need to re-read the thread and remove your extreme bias. First off, Scottie's initial post wasn't innocent as he said he was blinded by his dislike of Markakis, which may be true, but wasn't needed since he didn't put down Nick, and he rightfully picked Werth.

If you think all the responses directed at OF5 after his post about base-running were directed at him because of that post, once again, re-read the thread.

Yes, once again, I agree that his base-running remarks were poor and led to some problems, but they were far from the sole reason why this thread turned out how it did and people on the other side had plenty of poor posts themselves, either being poor logically or being poor in terms of un-needed personal attacks.

[mweb]

Um....did you not see the post about scoring more when he reaches base? Taking extra base more often? Again, did none of that register?

Come defend your boy on this one MWeb...

He's not my boy, and I'm not defending him on this. Look at my sig.

[Old#5fan]

It is personal...please. You said he should get divorced.

And Werth was clearly a better player THIS year. Nick Markakis was better last year.

So it's not THAT simple...quit trying to make it sound like it's a given that Werth has and will be better...

I don't recall saying that Markakis should "get" divorced" but if I did I was probably only joking. Hell, I don't even know who he is married to. If I said something like that it was probably only in the vein of he hit better and played better when he was single which so far is quite true.

[ejf1025]

No, you need to re-read the thread and remove your extreme bias. First off, Scottie's initial post wasn't innocent as he said he was blinded by his dislike of Markakis, which may be true, but wasn't needed since he didn't put down Nick, and he rightfully picked Werth.

If you think all the responses directed at OF5 after his post about base-running were directed at him because of that post, once again, re-read the thread.

Yes, once again, I agree that his base-running remarks were poor and led to some problems, but they were far from the sole reason why this thread turned out how it did and people on the other side had plenty of poor posts themselves, either being poor logically or being poor in terms of un-needed personal attacks.

Of course it has to do with history...and it should. He was doing what he always does...overstating a position to defend a personal bias and misconstruing and selectively picking data in his favor....like he JUST DID not two posts ago.

Again, it's his bed...he has to sleep in it. Given his history and the aggressive, over-the-top statements he made IMMEDIATELY...it's perfectly legit to call him out on his consistently horrendous ability to analyze.

[Old#5fan]

Ok, then ignore the amount of times they got picked off (a lot of players that steal high quanities of bases get picked off, actually).

Look at the other 4 stats that illustrate how Markakis is a better base-runner. Are those "inately stupid"?

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1962916#post1962916

edit: and about their speed, I again ask:

I've never watched Werth on any sort of regular basis, so I'm just going to assume you're correct that Werth is faster, takes a much larger lead off of bases, and is much more aggressive.

... however, if that's the case, then why does Markakis score much more often from first and second base than Werth does? We know, from what you told us, that Werth leads off farther - so he should have an advantage there over Markakis. And we also know, from what you told us, that Werth is much faster than Markakis because of his long legs and large stride - so he should also have an advantage there over Markakis. And we also know, from what you told us, that Werth is much more aggressive on the basepaths - so he should have an advantage there over Markakis.

And yet somehow Markakis scores more often. Hmmm, how is that possible? Either one of two things is happening:

1) What you told us is incorrect, and Werth is not actually faster/more aggressive than Markakis

2) What you state - that Werth is a vastly superior baserunner - is incorrect

So which is it?

-----------------

Speed is not the only thing required for a player to be good at stealing bases. Chase Utley stole 23 bases this year and wasn't caught once, yet he's not a world-burner. And you can certainly find examples that go the other way, too ... of incredibly fast players who are not good at stealing bases.

That is easy to explain. Werth hits way down in the Phillie lineup whereas Markakis hits either second or third so he has the bigger rbi guys coming up beh nd him, moreso than Werth does. Especially when Markakis hits second! Just about all second place hitters score more often than the 6th or 7th hitter in a lineup!

[ejf1025]

I don't recall saying that Markakis should "get" divorced" but if I did I was probably only joking. Hell, I don't even know who he is married to. If I said something like that it was probably only in the vein of he hit better and played better when he was single which so far is quite true.

Um...you got banned for it. I believe it was something along the lines of "his wife should divorce him" because you didn't think he seemed very excited...

[amateurfan]

I explained why these were brought up...if you can't see that these are relevant examples to how he chooses to manipulate data, I don't know what to tell you.

And see my post above...his overstatements came before anyone but Scottie called him out.

This one part ruins your argument. OF may not come by all of his opinions in the most informed way, but his initial post was innocuous and valid. There was no need to call him out on anything. It was that very calling out that started this whole debacle. The encouragement of others made this thread resemble day care. What happened after were the entanglement of several different arguments.

OF's assertion that he'd take Werth over Markakis did not require a history of OF's posting to validate it. That's mixing, as MWeb has pointed out, message and messenger. What validates OF's position for the question posed are the statistics that show Werth was better than Markakis this year.

[ejf1025]

That is easy to explain. Werth hits way down in the Phillie lineup whereas Markakis hits either second or third so he has the bigger rbi guys coming up beh nd him, moreso than Werth does. Especially when Markakis hits second! Just about all second place hitters score more often than the 6th or 7th hitter in a lineup!

Like who? All those guys you'd easily give up for any of the Phillies starters?

[VTmook213]

That is easy to explain. Werth hits way down in the Phillie lineup whereas Markakis hits either second or third so he has the bigger rbi guys coming up beh nd him, moreso than Werth does. Especially when Markakis hits second! Just about all second place hitters score more often than the 6th or 7th hitter in a lineup!

You consider "way down" to be 5th? Werth saw more PAs at the 5th spot than any other place. The player who saw the most PAs for the Phillies at the 6th spot, you ask? Raul Ibanez, he of the .552 SLG, .899 OPS, 34 HRs, and 93 RBIs.

Markakis saw more PAs at the #3 spot in the order. The player who saw the most PAs for the Orioles at the 4th spot, you ask? Aubrey Huff, he of the .384 SLG, .695 OPS, 15 HRs, and 85 RBIs.

I'm not sure you can really attribute that to Markakis having better hitters bat behind him because, well ... he didn't. So ... next reason?