Baseball Prospectus's Top 11

[Frobby]

Tillman's prospect status is much different than Matusz. Matusz's is as hgih as it is based off of the pitcher that he already is, Tillman's is based off of how good he is now, and the fact that he is expected to continue get much better. With Matusz, basically what you see is what you get(he will accomplish some minor refinement) but what we see with Tillman now won't look the same next year and the year after that. He is turning into a Greinke-like pitcher, but is younger and behind Matusz developmentally, so you don't see it as a finished product yet, but when it is a finished product, it sure will be pretty.

Let's not forget that Matusz isn't exactly old. He's 10 months older than Tillman, and had a lot less minor league experience. It's a mistake to assume that Matusz isn't going to continue to develop, learn and improve.

[QBsILLEST1]

Let's not forget that Matusz isn't exactly old. He's 10 months older than Tillman, and had a lot less minor league experience. It's a mistake to assume that Matusz isn't going to continue to develop, learn and improve.

No, I know that they aren't too far appart as far as age, but as far as development, Matusz is pretty much fully baked. I did mention that Matusz will go through some minor refinement, but he is about done developing. Tillman on the other hand, is currently in the middle of developing, and this year really seemed to take a few big steps in the right direction, and still has a bit more ways to go. Matusz pretty much developed and gained polish quicker than Tillman, but considering Tillman is as good as he is without Matusz's pitchability and command and execution of pitches, as he continues to develop those apsects further, there is a good chance that he pulls out ahead. There is even some talk that Tillman has some projection left and could fill in some more. Matusz OTOH doesn't have that same projection left IMO.

Also something to keep in mind, while Tillman has more MiL IP, you can make the argument that Matusz has more IP against advanced hitters. At the age of 18 while Tillman was in rookie ball, Matusz was already facing batters that were in the HiA type competition level.

When trying to decide what type of pitcher that Tillman is, for me it used to be harder to guage, I kinda thought he was a power pitcher due to the high K/9, but in actuality I think he is developing more toward the Matusz mold rather than Arrieta mold, he is still just honing his skills. Once Tillman's command is right, you are looking at a #1 SP.....

[Frobby]

No, I know that they aren't too far appart as far as age, but as far as development, Matusz is pretty much fully baked. I did mention that Matusz will go through some minor refinement, but he is about done developing. Tillman on the other hand, is currently in the middle of developing, and this year really seemed to take a few big steps in the right direction, and still has a bit more ways to go. Matusz pretty much developed and gained polish quicker than Tillman, but considering Tillman is as good as he is without Matusz's pitchability and command and execution of pitches, as he continues to develop those apsects further, there is a good chance that he pulls out ahead. There is even some talk that Tillman has some projection left and could fill in some more. Matusz OTOH doesn't have that same projection left IMO.

Also something to keep in mind, while Tillman has more MiL IP, you can make the argument that Matusz has more IP against advanced hitters. At the age of 18 while Tillman was in rookie ball, Matusz was already facing batters that were in the HiA type competition level.

When trying to decide what type of pitcher that Tillman is, for me it used to be harder to guage, I kinda thought he was a power pitcher due to the high K/9, but in actuality I think he is developing more toward the Matusz mold rather than Arrieta mold, he is still just honing his skills. Once Tillman's command is right, you are looking at a #1 SP.....

I think the two are going to be different kinds of pitchers. Matusz has (and will continue to have) better command and a wider assortment of pitches. Tillman has three pitches that can all be pretty devastating. I don't expect his command to develop to Matusz's level, however. I expect Matusz to be the more consistent of the two, but Tillman will be the more unhittable one when he is on his game.

[QBsILLEST1]

I think the two are going to be different kinds of pitchers. Matusz has (and will continue to have) better command and a wider assortment of pitches. Tillman has three pitches that can all be pretty devastating. I don't expect his command to develop to Matusz's level, however. I expect Matusz to be the more consistent of the two, but Tillman will be the more unhittable one when he is on his game.

I agree with what you say, but IMO Tillman is gonna eb a Greinke type pitcher meaning he's gonna have good but not great command, and good stuff. I remember hearing one of the coaches gushing about Tillman, when they were comparing him to Tommy Hanson, and it was said that Tillman's strnegth is his lack of weaknesses. We actually ended up finding out his biggest weakness was command, but that will come around. He has been steadily improving it over the last few years. While I don't see Tillman having as good command as Matusz, I think the quality of his pitches will be superior once his command is just a tick better. That changeup of his IMO is gonna be devestating with a few more reps. While his changeup doesn't have the same great arm action that Matusz has, I like Tillman's mvoement on the pitch more, and also the separation between his FB/CH is better. It will be a plus pitch in the future. But, I just think Tillman is getting slightly underestimated because folks are getting a glimpse of him before he is truely done developing and not realizing that he could still be in AA right now.....Give him time, he is gonna surprise.....

NOTE~ I am gonna go check PITCH FX to see who's changeup has better movement between Tilly and Matusz....

[Ruzious]

I think the two are going to be different kinds of pitchers. Matusz has (and will continue to have) better command and a wider assortment of pitches. Tillman has three pitches that can all be pretty devastating. I don't expect his command to develop to Matusz's level, however. I expect Matusz to be the more consistent of the two, but Tillman will be the more unhittable one when he is on his game.

Yeah, my main concern about Tillman probably sounds trifling, but it's where he stands on the mound. I can't see him being able to hit both corners standing way off to one side, and that limits what the batters have to concern themselves with.

[Frobby]

I agree with what you say, but IMO Tillman is gonna eb a Greinke type pitcher meaning he's gonna have good but not great command, and good stuff. I remember hearing one of the coaches gushing about Tillman, when they were comparing him to Tommy Hanson, and it was said that Tillman's strnegth is his lack of weaknesses. We actually ended up finding out his biggest weakness was command, but that will come around. He has been steadily improving it over the last few years. While I don't see Tillman having as good command as Matusz, I think the quality of his pitches will be superior once his command is just a tick better. That changeup of his IMO is gonna be devestating with a few more reps. While his changeup doesn't have the same great arm action that Matusz has, I like Tillman's mvoement on the pitch more, and also the separation between his FB/CH is better. It will be a plus pitch in the future. But, I just think Tillman is getting slightly underestimated because folks are getting a glimpse of him before he is truely done developing and not realizing that he could still be in AA right now.....Give him time, he is gonna surprise.....

NOTE~ I am gonna go check PITCH FX to see who's changeup has better movement between Tilly and Matusz....

I was really impressed with Tillman's change-up last year. No doubt that when he's able to throw it where he wants, it's going to be unhittable and make his fastball that much better. I think Matusz's is a bit more reliable from game to game.

[Stotle]

I was really impressed with Tillman's change-up last year. No doubt that when he's able to throw it where he wants, it's going to be unhittable and make his fastball that much better. I think Matusz's is a bit more reliable from game to game.

Agree with this. I think Matusz gets a little more fade, though Tillman flashed some change-ups with better depth than I saw from Matusz on average. I think Tillman probably gets more velo differential, but Matusz's can be more deceiving because his arm speed/action is better. Matusz commands the pitch worlds better than Tillman.

Just my thoughts on the change-ups...

[QBsILLEST1]

Agree with this. I think Matusz gets a little more fade, though Tillman flashed some change-ups with better depth than I saw from Matusz on average. I think Tillman probably gets more velo differential, but Matusz's can be more deceiving because his arm speed/action is better. Matusz commands the pitch worlds better than Tillman.

Just my thoughts on the change-ups...

I agree with all of this and Frobby too(comp won't let me do a multiple reply). Tillman definitely gets more MPH differential, but like you just said, the arm action if better with Matusz, and he commands the pitch much better, not to mention, he is much mroe consistent with the pitch as far as drop and fade. But I have seen Tillman throw some changeups that had movement on them unlike anything I have seen from Matusz. Once Tillman gets some more reps with the pitch, I can see it becoming better than Matusz's believe it or not. I was surprised to see that on average(Through PITCH FX) Matusz gets more drop and fade on the pitch, but IMO thats due to Tillman not being as consistent with the pitch yet. I'm pretty confident that if we could see each pitch specifically through PITCH FX that Tillman's best changeups would have more movement AND velo differential.....

Pair that devestating changeup and that curveball that is already pretty close to plus-plus, you have a very very nasty pitcher. The command just needs to come arounud.....

[Frobby]

I

Pair that devestating changeup and that curveball that is already pretty close to plus-plus, you have a very very nasty pitcher. The command just needs to come arounud.....

I wish I had a dollar for every pitcher who came along who "just" needed to improve his command. It ain't that easy to do it!

I think Tillman will be a very good major league pitcher, as he gains experience. But I'm not expecting some big leap in his command.

[QBsILLEST1]

I wish I had a dollar for every pitcher who came along who "just" needed to improve his command. It ain't that easy to do it!

I think Tillman will be a very good major league pitcher, as he gains experience. But I'm not expecting some big leap in his command.

Well, I agree sorta. Yes, most pitchers need to improve their command, but at the same time, 1 he has been improving his control/command over the past 3 years, and 2 it is different for a pitcher like Tillman who is still in his developmental phase to improve his command than a pitcher like Daisuke who is in his mid to upper 20's attempting to improve his command. Its very similar to the sad story of the "Wild Child". The girl who was neglected by her parents and chained to a toilet for the 1st 15 years of her life who never learned how to talk or understand the english language. Once she was rescued, they thought she could learn to speak and understand english at the age of 15, but it ended up being a failure because she was past the "developmental period" in which your brain learns language much easier.

Once you get past the age of I believe 3 or 4, it is much more difficult to learn language, especially if you don't have any language as a foundation.

The analogy I am making here is that Tillman still being in his developmental period(for pitching it is obviously much different than learning a language where the period is up to 3 or so years old) is still able to learn command and should continue to improve it. Once you get past the developmental phase, its nearly impossible.

Over the last 3 full seasons:

07 A+ 4.2 BB/9

08 AA 4.3 BB/9

09 AAA 2.4 BB/9

09 MLB 3.3 BB/9

Like I said, he took big steps in the right direction this year, and improved his control to a tune of 2.4 BB/9 in AAA as one of the youngest, then he came to Baltimore and pitched to a 3.3 BB/9 which is exceptional considering all rookie's BB/9 goes up when they come to the ML. His went up and it was still a whole walk less than in 08 and 07. It is part of natural progression to be able to command your pitches better. He will command his curve better with more experience, he will also command the changeup better with more experience. The fastball is no different, its part of natural progression...

[mdterpsrule]

Interesting comments here:

Markakis and Reimold missed the age cutoff by a few months. Where would they have ranked on the top 10 talents? #2 and #6?[/Quote]

KG:

I have no idea how anyone could take Markakis over Jones. Very similar hitters, but Jones is younger, faster, and plays up the middle -- I think that's a huge advantage for Jones. Reimold, yes, after the big two arms and the three young hitters.[/Quote]

[LookinUp]

Interesting comments here:

KG:

Interesting. I'm not sure I agree with him, but it's debatable. With Kakes and Jones, this would probably be my list.

1. Matt Wieters, C

2. Brian Matusz LHP

3. Adam Jones, CF

4. Chris Tillman, RHP

5. Nick Markakis RF

6. Nolan Reimold LF/DH

7. Jake Arrieta, RHP

8. Zach Britton, LHP

9. Felix Pie, OF

10. Josh Bell, 3B

11. Matt Hobgood, RHP

12. Brandon Erbe, RHP

[QBsILLEST1]

I guess they are very similar hitters if you don't look at Markakis's track record. Jones has more power and Markakis has much better discipline and a better approach. Nick is a pure hitter with a line drive swing, Jones' swing is more of a HR cut. IMO what KG said is similar to saying that Pie and Reimold are similar hitters.....I don't understand the comparison exactly. Kakes will give you much better on base skills.....

[Lucky Jim]

Its very similar to the sad story of the "Wild Child". The girl who was neglected by her parents and chained to a toilet for the 1st 15 years of her life who never learned how to talk or understand the english language. Once she was rescued, they thought she could learn to speak and understand english at the age of 15, but it ended up being a failure because she was past the "developmental period" in which your brain learns language much easier.

Once you get past the age of I believe 3 or 4, it is much more difficult to learn language, especially if you don't have any language as a foundation.

Winner of the award for most convoluted way of saying "Tillman is still young"? And I mean that as a compliment. Anytime I can see "chained to a toilet" on a baseball message board, I'm entertained.

[RVAbird]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9752

That's a pretty solid list and I'm inclined to agree with most of it.

I think I would rank Snyder on the borderline between a 3 and 4 star prospect. I am not down on his talent, it's just that first base requires a heck of a lot of offensive production. That alone should place Bell half a step ahead of Snyder.

In my eyes Bell is a pretty sure bet to be an average starting third baseman as soon as 2011. He's also got star potential if he can figure out lefties. I'm sold on his defense, though he could stand to improve his range to his left.

To me, Snyder has a bit of a safety net with his hit tool. I've got no doubts that he will be a solid hitter for average at the ML level. His ISOs will make all the difference. I could see his isolated power anywhere from 140-200. He could walk anywhere from 20-60 times a year. There are just more question marks there for me and being a first baseman makes it an uphill battle.

Snyder's a top 10 prospect in any system, though, and he's more or less a lock to reach the big leagues by age 23.