So, what is being built?

[Arthur_Bryant]

This is the question. I think Baltimore is trying to put a team together that appeals to the fans, while not risking the forfiture of our future. Her is the problem I have, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and Jeremy Guthrie are all good players. They are very good players on the Orioles, but would only be good players on a playoff team. These are guys that should have been traded for very good return of young prospects IMO. Guthrie could be replaced by Britton as soon as this year. Scott is a good bat, bat he wouldn't be too hard to replace IMO. Markakis is the one guy I wouldn't have wanted to trade, but I think he is going to be in his 30's before we start to compete. Guthris should have been traded this offseason IMO.

I think you are either rebuilding or you are making a push for the playoffs. I think that playoff push requires you to spend money. The Orioles seem to be in between once again. Trying to add a few parts to be adequate, they may win 82 games, but 95 games is still well out of reach. The Orioles need to operate like the Royals (Build the system by trading away their best players) or like the Rays (Strike with a big signing or two, but accumulate picks through smart signings). I do not think we will ever be like Detroit, Chicago, New York, or Boston. They seem to identify players and go after them. I really like how Kenny Williams does things and would be excited if he were the Orioles GM (PA could be a problem too, but I can not judge a guy without knowing their role in things).

The ambivalence started early. Any true rebuilding organization would have traded Brian Roberts the same winter as Bedard and Tejada. The O's should have flipped Scott as soon as possible--that's the move a true rebuilding team would make.

The problem is, it wouldn't have made a lot of difference, because piling up draft picks and prospects is useless if you can't consistently sign and develop superior young talent--and the Orioles apparently can't.

Failing that, and with a middling budget, the O's are boxed in to mediocrity. Again.

[Moose Milligan]

I think we're building a solid team. I don't see us ever being spectacular anytime soon.

[24fps]

I think what we're seeing now is what happens when a team sort of tries to rebuild, but not really; and sort of tries to please the fans, but not really; and sort of tries to build from the ground up, but not really, because nothing really changes on the ground.

What's really dismaying is that 2011 and 2012 may well be a high-water mark for this franchise for a while.

My impression of the last few years as well, although I'm considerably more optimistic about the future. That optimism has little to do with MacPhail and everything to do with Showalter.

[NCRaven]

I think we're building a solid team. I don't see us ever being spectacular anytime soon.

I think "solid" is a good first step. One thing this team has developed is a strong core of starting pitching, with several very good arms for the pen, as well. Once they settle on a firstbaseman, I believe the only real positional question mark on the team will be LF. There are reason's to doubt both Reimold and Pie. But, even good teams have question marks at one or more positions (see Yankees and Starting Pitching). As good as KC's minor league system is, they have absolutely no starting pitching ready to go now. And prospects are just that. Meanwhile, the O's have Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, and Tillman ready today with Britton another month or two of AAA seasoning away.

If this team begins to win, and I think they now have both the talent and leadership to do so, the who dynamic changes. There's no inherent reason for free agents to not like Baltimore. They just don't like losing. Change that and we can start exchanging Confederate for American dollars.

[Arthur_Bryant]

My impression of the last few years as well, although I'm considerably more optimistic about the future. That optimism has little to do with MacPhail and everything to do with Showalter.

Buck is going to have to find a way to get the young core to play much better than they have played. Jones, Wieters, Markakis, Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta all need to perform somewhere close to their full potential. MacPhail bet on these guys as the core of the team through the middle part of this decade, and so far, collectively, they have been disappointing. At least two or three of this group needs to turn into something like an annual All-Star, and it has to happen soon. Because clearly the outstanding talent is not coming in from outside.

[Stotle]

They are building a pennant contender. It is built around:

1. The young pitching staff. We got a glance of what the young starters can do the last two months of the season. That was without the improvement of Tillman and Britton pitching at their peak. Pennants are won with pitching(see the Giants) and the O's have an improving core.

2. A manager that knows how to win. There was more talent on this team then Trembley or Sammuel was able to get out of them. It took Buck to get it playing well. That will continue and likely get better.

3. A team which has good defense. The players that MacPhail is putting together can be a very good defense unit that helps out the pitchers.

4. A improved offense. I think Buck will get a good offense out of the players he has. I think the team will add another bat and probably strenghten the bench. It will not be Boston's offense in 2011 but it will be something the O's continue to work on.

5. I see this as the last year that free agents do not want to come to Baltimore. This team will at least reach the middle of the pack in wins in 2010. When they do they will be seen by all as an up and coming team. Then some free agents will sign here willingly. The O's will still not be able to attract players that the Yankees and Red Sox want but neither can the rest of the league.

I think the future is bright of the O's. They are on their way to improvement. To respectability. And to being a winner under Buck. Once they are winning Andy and Buck can figure the next step to being in the playoffs.

I think "solid" is a good first step. One thing this team has developed is a strong core of starting pitching, with several very good arms for the pen, as well. Once they settle on a firstbaseman, I believe the only real positional question mark on the team will be LF. There are reason's to doubt both Reimold and Pie. But, even good teams have question marks at one or more positions (see Yankees and Starting Pitching). As good as KC's minor league system is, they have absolutely no starting pitching ready to go now. And prospects are just that. Meanwhile, the O's have Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, and Tillman ready today with Britton another month or two of AAA seasoning away.

If this team begins to win, and I think they now have both the talent and leadership to do so, the who dynamic changes. There's no inherent reason for free agents to not like Baltimore. They just don't like losing. Change that and we can start exchanging Confederate for American dollars.

Let's flesh out these thoughts:

1. What is the "window" for BAL being competitive, keeping in mind the contract situations (when certain players are under contract and when they get expensive) and the general dearth of talent in the upper minors?

2. Are you confident BAL will be replacing guys like Guthrie, Markakis, Roberts, Scott, etc. with comparable or better talent when the time comes? If so, where are they getting the talent (in-house, trade, FA)?

[MatthewW]

Great post... right before Hardy and Reynolds were acquired, I wondered if the smartest move would be to blow it up again with trades of Markakis, Scott, Guthrie and then Roberts and Gonzalez in July to acquire ~13 prospects. It might be a terrible PR move, but what if you can get a Yonder Alonso for Guthrie? Or a Freddie Freeman for Markakis?

This team seems to be at a stalemate. Foolishly spending millions on Tejada, Gonzalez, Atkins because like you said, they refuse to spend money on quality FAs, while also resilient to surrender young pitching in a trade.

Maybe having a $30M payroll in 2011 looks horrible, but that was an avenue I would have seriously considered if I was MacPhail. Bank that $50M to invest at a point when this team is ready to compete. Adding Reynolds and Hardy certainly make this team better, but it doesn't matter when the Red Sox are adding Gonzalez, Crawford, Jenks and Wheeler... or the Rays putting out quality prospects faster than the time it takes an Aroldys Chapman fastball to reach home plate... or the Blue Jays investing heavily internationally... and the Yankees are still THE Yankees.

Unfortunately, I am not really sure what the 'plan' is anymore.

[NCRaven]

Let's flesh out these thoughts:

1. What is the "window" for BAL being competitive, keeping in mind the contract situations (when certain players are under contract and when they get expensive) and the general dearth of talent in the upper minors?

2. Are you confident BAL will be replacing guys like Guthrie, Markakis, Roberts, Scott, etc. with comparable or better talent when the time comes? If so, where are they getting the talent (in-house, trade, FA)?

I think "window" is a mistaken concept. Windows change all of the time. Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton are all under team control for the next 5-6 years. That's a big window for a team built around their starting rotation. And, a lot can happen in that time as far as player development is concerned, especially with a GM that believes in "growing the arms."

Markakis, Jones, and Wieters are under team control for 4+ years and Roberts for 3. Behind Roberts is Hoes, who I think is underrated due to this seasons health issues and behind Hardy is Machado. While the cupboard is not overflowing with positional prospects, two of our best are in positions where we will likely have future needs.

And, once we have success on the field, free agency then becomes a more realistic option for significant improvement when players are needed and avaliable.

I think we're blowing this "problem" out of proportion. It's solved by drafting, developing and signing the best possible players, while continuing to build around the starting pitching that we've already developed to this point in time.

[Stotle]

I think "window" is a mistaken concept. Windows change all of the time. Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton are all under team control for the next 5-6 years. That's a big window for a team built around their starting rotation. And, a lot can happen in that time as far as player development is concerned, especially with a GM that believes in "growing the arms."

Markakis, Jones, and Wieters are under team control for 4+ years and Roberts for 3. Behind Roberts is Hoes, who I think is underrated due to this seasons health issues and behind Hardy is Machado. While the cupboard is not overflowing with positional prospects, two of our best are in positions where we will likely have future needs.

And, once we have success on the field, free agency then becomes a more realistic option for significant improvement when players are needed and avaliable.

I think we're blowing this "problem" out of proportion. It's solved by drafting, developing and signing the best possible players, while continuing to build around the starting pitching that we've already developed to this point in time.

But you would agree that all of these players are getting more and more expensive every year, right? Does BAL likely need to add at least one more significant talent? If so, is this possible considering trade chips and decreasing payroll room?

I agree in part with your thoughts on a "window", but how is the concept of a "window" not relevant for a team in Baltimore's position (decreasing payroll room, no immediate impact help in the minors, trouble attracting free agents and stiff competition in the division)?

[Tbone]

We all know that this has been going on since PA bought the team... it is not just a coincidence. Having said that, I totally agree with your synopsis, and I must ad that until we hire a new GM, one cut from the young turks who understand today's game, we will only make small, consistent moves. Regrettably, no matter what organization, it all starts from the top. I know we have heard this for years, especially in the OH. Remember the definition of insanity is keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result!

[Sports Guy]

Let's face it, the Orioles are putting all their eggs in the young starting pitching basket.

If the young starters don't develop, don't stay healthy or whatever, then we are doomed.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am glad we have developed pitching to get up to this level. I like the promise of those arms and I will always advocate developing pitching as opposed to paying big dollars for it.

The problem with the plan is the same problem that AM had in Chicago.

I believe it was Hoosiers who said the other day that had Wood and Prior been as good as they were supposed to be, that AM would be looked at as a great GM. Perhaps he is right...The problem with that theory is when you put the fate of the organization on 2 young arms, you are doing a disservice to everyone involved.

We have to be a team that can do more than pitch and right now, we haven't really proven that we can even do that on any kind of a consistent basis.

So, I feel there are aspects of the plan that are very flawed. You want to grow the arms, fine...But you say you want to buy the bats...But how is that defined? For years now I have argued back and forth with those who mention that AM said he would buy the bats..That he would spend money, etc...But where did AM ever say that the bats he would buy would be elite level talents? That was never said. When has AM made the big FA splashes, in his GM career? Never! He doesn't believe in it...He has a philosophy of how to do things and if it doesn't work, then he has no ability to adapt.

It just is what it is. This is how AM does things.

Now, I am ok with him not wanting to go crazy, most of the time, in FA. For the most part, I agree with him in that regards.

The part that AM and I see way differently(and to be fair, PA is a big part of this as well) is how much to spend on amateur talent...I would spend, on average, 15-20 million a year.

The part about buying the bats is all well and good but if all you want to buy is mediocre players like LaRoche, you better have players coming up behind those mediocre players that can be big time impact guys...and the Orioles don't have that. And the reason for that is the poor scouting, poor development and just overall lack of spending on the amateur side of things.

Also, it seems to me that the Orioles will continue to hold onto guys too long...Like AM almost doesn't know what to do with players.

I know people on here love Scott and Guthrie but really, do you guys honestly feel they will be around when we are contenders? And if so, how much contribution do you feel they will give us? Why hold onto them? Why not move them a year too early as opposed to a year to late?

Right now, I see a team that has a lot of young talent...A team that has added some good pieces this offseason...A team that could do some real damage if things go right. But I also see a team(and organization) that has no chance of contending anytime soon. I have said it before but I feel the Orioles are further away from contention than any team in baseball...People either agree with me or they think the Orioles are in the top 3 for that "title". That's horrible. After all of this time, we should be in MUCH better shape than we are. Our MiL system should be better.

I don't want to hear that we have graduated players recently...You can say that for other teams as well and those teams have very good systems still.

The Orioles are flat out not doing nearly enough for us to be a legit contender in the AL East. I don't see how anyone can argue differently, at least with any real common sense behind it. You can hope. You can think Buck will be a difference maker. But when you really get down to it, the facts of this organization are still what they are and in this divison, those facts add up to a team going no where.

(BTW, great thread topic Stotle...nice opening post as well)

[NCRaven]

But you would agree that all of these players are getting more and more expensive every year, right? Does BAL likely need to add at least one more significant talent? If so, is this possible considering trade chips and decreasing payroll room?

I agree in part with your thoughts on a "window", but how is the concept of a "window" not relevant for a team in Baltimore's position (decreasing payroll room, no immediate impact help in the minors, trouble attracting free agents and stiff competition in the division)?

Well the pitching and Wieters won't get more expense for several years with none of them eligible for arbitration any time soon. With Roberts, Reynolds and Markakis you have payroll certainty since they're under contract. Even if they pay someone like LaRoche 3/$21, that's not a killer contract that they wouldn't be able to unload, at least in part, if they have an opportunity to upgrade at 1B. Guthrie and Scott could be trade chips later this season that could bring in a talented young player at the deadline.

What we have to hope for is to build a team with excellent starting pitching and a solid supporting cast so that the team is in a position to be competitive every year. Then have the occassional season where everything clicks and a few players play above their norms. For example, the '83 O's did not have all-stars at every position. But they did have excellent pitching, Eddie Murray and Cal Ripken with a supporting cast of capable, but not star, players. Granted, the Yankees of that era were not quite what they have become, budget wise, nor was Boston. I understand that. But, you don't have to outspend or out produce them at every position to be successful.

[Dipper9]

I get really sick and tired of the whole "Its not fair that we play in the AL East" argument. To me, that's like the murderer who blames his parents for not raising him right. Its a copout and its bs.

It is a FACT that we play in the AL East, so instead of using that as an excuse, MacPhail and the Orioles need to build a team that can complete IN THE AL EAST. I like the moves MacPhail has made thus far this offseason, but at best it will make us a contender for third place. That's not good enough. The OP asks what are the Orioles building here. I have asked several times what MacPhail has accomplished in his 3.5 years here? Its the same question really. The answer is not much has really changed under MacPhail. The names of the players may have changed, but the results are the same...he has continued to build 5th place teams in a division where you need to be building a team that can compete as one of the best in baseball. That is what we face, and its a fact, not an excuse. Competing in the AL East means building a team that can be considered one of the best in all of baseball. MacPhail has failed at this, no matter how you slice it.

Frankly, I don't see how wildcard can continue to stay SO positive. I will always root for the Orioles. Hell, we COULD catch lightning in a bottle and surpise everyone. But MacPhail did not build a championship calibre team in his 3.5 years here.

[Frobby]

The ambivalence started early. Any true rebuilding organization would have traded Brian Roberts the same winter as Bedard and Tejada.

MacPhail tried to do that. The market wasn't that strong, so he went the other direction with BRob. I have no problem with that.

My main disappointment is that we're moving so slowly in Latin America, and our drafting just hasn't been that good. All the problems at the major league level are a consequence of the fact that we have an insufficient supply of good young talent rising up from the minors.

I am not that worried about payroll flexibility. I think we have plenty, both short run and medium run.

[NCRaven]

Let's face it, the Orioles are putting all their eggs in the young starting pitching basket...

I think you make a number of excellent points. On the starting pitching, I would point out health ultimately was the undoing of Chicago's starting pitching. So far, at least, that does not appear to be an issue for our young pitching. JJ Johnson, Berken and Patton are good examples of what I'm getting at. All three have had injuries that would cause you to no longer consider them part of the core starting pitching group. But, because AM built a large "inventory" of quality starting pitching, health has not hampered our ability to develop a strong group of young pitchers, with Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta and Tillman already pitching significant ML innings and Britton knocking on the door. And, it allowed him to trade Hernandez for a power bat that we have been missing for some time.

I agree with you entirely that we must do much better at identifying, drafting, signing and developing amateur talent through our minor league system. The Hobgood pick, as an example, has the potential for huge disappointment, at this point. But then, Machado could prove to be a stud for years to come. Hoes has solid potential at 2B and will probably start the season with Avery at AA - and we know how close that can be to the bigs. Admittedly, that's not much, but it may provide some help in the near future. And, one thing AM has done is show a willingness to pay for over-drafted players. Now, if only they could stay healthy.

I'm not trying to sugar coat the O's current position. I just think that there is a way out available. But, like you, I'm waiting for AM to show that he can find that way. You seem convinced that he can't or won't. I still have hope.