Top 10?

[ChuckS]

Now that all of the minor league seasons are coming to an end, what does our top ten look like? I'll take a stab at it:

1. Dylan Bundy SP

2. Manny Machado SS

3. Jonathan Schoop 2B

4. Kevin Gausman SP

5. L.J. Hoes OF

6. Nick Delmonico IF

7. Xavier Avery OF

8. Eduardo Rodriguez SP

9. Steven Johnson SP

10. Stuart Pomeranz RP

Nine and ten were hard. I considered putting guys like Glynn Davis and John Ruetiger in there, but it's hard to rank a guy in the top ten when his upside is fourth outfielder. Maybe one of our other draft picks from this year should be in there, but I don't know much about them. Very shallow system to say the least. 7-10 would not belong on most other organizations top 10 I'm thinking.

[Lucky Jim]

Now that all of the minor league seasons are coming to an end, what does our top ten look like? I'll take a stab at it:

1. Dylan Bundy SP

2. Manny Machado SS

3. Jonathan Schoop 2B

4. Kevin Gausman SP

5. L.J. Hoes OF

6. Nick Delmonico IF

7. Xavier Avery OF

8. Eduardo Rodriguez SP

9. Steven Johnson SP

10. Stuart Pomeranz RP

Nine and ten were hard. I considered putting guys like Glynn Davis and John Ruetiger in there, but it's hard to rank a guy in the top ten when his upside is fourth outfielder. Maybe one of our other draft picks from this year should be in there, but I don't know much about them. Very shallow system to say the least. 7-10 would not belong on most other organizations top 10 I'm thinking.

I'm higher on E. Rodriguez than you, I guess. I think he's a pretty solid top-10ish talent in many organizations.

[LookinUp]

I just started this in another thread, but am really not sure where Delmonico should end up. I want to see bigger numbers out of him. Something like this...

1. Bundy

2. Machado

3. Gausman

4. Schoop

5. Hoes

6. Delmonico

7. E. Rodriguez (would like to see where he sits on LJ's list)

8. Avery

9. Kline

10. Marin/Walker

[MatthewW]

1. Dylan Bundy

2. Manny Machado

3. Kevin Gausman (probably in the 30s on a national scale)

4. Jonathan Schoop

5. Nicky Delmonico

6. Xavier Avery

7. LJ Hoes

8. Eduardo Rodriguez

9. Branden Kline

10. Torsten Boss

11. Bobby Bundy

12. Clayton Schrader

13. Adrian Marin

14. Lex Rutledge

15. Mike Wright

16. Christian Walker

17. Parker Bridwell

18. Roderick Bernadina

19. Glynn Davis

20. Zachary Davies

21. Tyler Townsend

22. John Ruettiger

23. Dan Klein

24. Mike Belfiore

25. Henry Urrutia

26. Jason Esposito (I seriously considered leaving him off my top 30)

27. Steve Johnson

28. Miguel Chalas

29. Stu Pomeranz

30. Aaron Wirsch

*Miguel Gonzalez is only a few innings away from no longer being a 'prospect' so I left him off... I think you could see Mychal Givens in the mid to late 20s if he is converted to a pitcher.

[skanar]

1. Bundy (Sickels A)

2. Machado (Sickels A)

3. Gausman (Sickels B+)

4. Schoop (Sickels borderline B/B+)

5-7. Delmonico, Avery, Hoes in any order (Sickels B)

8. Eduardo Rodriguez (Sickels B-)

These are easy. Then it gets very hard.

9. Steve Johnson (Sickels C+). I like his story. But he's not way ahead of anybody else.

10 would come from a list of Zach Davies, Bernadina, Dan Klein, Bobby Bundy, Mike Wright, Clay Schrader, Mike Belfiore, Ruettiger, and this year's lower draftees (Klein, Marin, Boss, Walker). Quick breakdowns:

SP Zach Davies: 19 in 1st pro season at Delmarva (that's good) w/ good results but not enough Ks. Poor scouting reports, projection.

OF Roderick Bernadina: 19 at Aberdeen/Delmarva (good). Mediocre results. Toolsy, strong scouting reports.

SP Dan Klein: Surgery. Troy Patton was still a decent prospect during his recovery. Ranking depends 100% on health.

SP Bobby Bundy: If you buy that the poor results were caused by the injury, he's a solid prospect. Otherwise, a big step back.

SP Mike Wright: 22 finished year at Bowie (good). Mixed results. Control-oriented righty.

RP Mike Belfiore: 23 at Bowie (OK). Guy we traded Josh Bell for. Lots of Ks, lots of BBs. Could turn into Pedro Strop, could stop throwing the ball over the plate.

RP Clay Schrader: 22 at Bowie (good). Everything written for Belfiore, only much more so.

OF John Ruettiger: 22 at Frederick (OK). Speedy and takes walks but no power. The second coming of Matt Angle.

And of course there's also Kline, Marin, Walker, and Boss. Boss and Walker have hit well but are old for Aberdeen (both 21). Marin is very young but all the way down in the GCL.

These are all C+ guys, and it depends what value you place on upside versus chance to make the majors at all, as well as age relative to league vs. nearness to MLB. Klein and Bernadina have the highest ceilings and best chance to be stars. If you think Davies can add weight and velocity, he's a nice choice. Schrader and Belfiore need to exorcise the ghost of Daniel Cabrera, but if either does, they become a guaranteed ML-caliber reliever. Mike Wright is probably the safest choice. Klein and Bundy need to come back from surgery.

At the end of all that, I'm probably going with Kline and Wright. Say,

10. Brandon Kline (Sickels B-) (he should really be ahead of Johnson, but hey.)

11. Mike Wright (Sickels C+)

then

12. Zach Davies (C+)

13. Roderick Bernadina (Sickels C+)

14. Mike Belfiore (C+)

15. Torsten Boss (C+)

16. Christian Walker (C+)

17. Dan Klein (C+)

18. Clay Schrader (C+)

19. John Ruettiger ©

20. Bobby Bundy ©

Bridwell and Esposito were terrible this year. Trent Mummey got injured again was was much less effective this year. Glynn Davis is worth thinking about and is still very young, but his results weren't good. Ty Kelly could sneak on to the above list if you don't think this year was a fluke.

Finally, it's worth mentioning Oliver Drake and Tyler Townsend, who both would be strong candidates but for injuries.

Edit: I left out Tim Berry and Ryan Berry! Ryan is probably around the mid-teens at this point, he's made a decent comeback from surgery and has the results but not the Ks. Tim Berry is a very nice sleeper. Consider this comparison:

Bobby Bundy, 2011 (Age 21 at Frederick): 2.75 ERA in 121 IP, 7.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Tim Berry, 2012 (Age 21 at Frederick): 4.36 ERA in 53 IP, 7.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. The only scouting reports on him I can find are old, and mention that (1) he had TJ surgery in 2009, (2) he needs to work on his command, (3) lefty with 92 MPH fastball. Perhaps the 2.3 BB/9 is a good sign?

[Flash- bd]

I think it's pretty clear who the top 8 prospects are, and even the order they go in, though there could definitely be some debate over Avery/Rodriguez at 7/8. At 9 and 10 it's more or less a crapshoot and your choices there are more going to reflect your philosophy than who's actually our 9th or 10th best prospect. I think missing from your analysis, Skanar (which definitely covers most of the bases), are Glynn Davis, Joe Mahoney, and--above all!--my boy Brenden Webb, who could/probably should be top 20 guys. For me, the guys that are interesting after the top 8 are the two draft picks Kline and Walker, and then probably Berry, Townsend, and Belfiore in that order. So I'd go with this:

1. Bundy

2. Machado

3. Gausman

4. Schoop

5. Hoes

6. Delmonico

7. E. Rodriguez

8. Avery (this ranking has less to do with my liking for Rodriguez and more to do with my lack of belief in/problems w/ Avery)

9. B. Kline

10. Christian Walker

11. T. Berry

12. Townsend

13. Belfiore

14. Wright

EDIT: another name worth mentioning is Connor Narron, though he's probably more in the 20-30 mix.

[Purple Oriole]

Ew, 8-10 is disgraceful.

Heres my 1-7. lol.

Bundy

Machado

Schoop

Hoes

Gausman

Avery

Delmonico

[skanar]

I think it's pretty clear who the top 8 prospects are, and even the order they go in, though there could definitely be some debate over Avery/Rodriguez at 7/8. At 9 and 10 it's more or less a crapshoot and your choices there are more going to reflect your philosophy than who's actually our 9th or 10th best prospect. I think missing from your analysis, Skanar (which definitely covers most of the bases), are Glynn Davis, Joe Mahoney, and--above all!--my boy Brenden Webb, who could/probably should be top 20 guys.

Davis is a prospect, certainly; he gets good scouting reports and has nice SB numbers. But a .660 OPS at Delmarva at age 20 is pretty poor, and he has absolutely no power right now. To rank him high, I think you have to believe that he's going to add a lot of hitting strength over the next 2-3 years. Not unreasonable to do so.

Mahoney had two solid years in 2010-2011, but they weren't spectacular. 25 in AAA, 1B-man with .715 OPS. Nobody's gonna get excited about that. I don't think he'll be on many top 20 lists.

Brenden Webb is an intriguing player with excellent patience and decent power and speed. But he's playing corner OF, he's 22 at Delmarva, and it's his second year there. If he were having this season at Frederick he'd probably be on the list, and if it were at Bowie he'd be pushing into the top 10. For now, though, you have to put more than just a grain of salt on the numbers, I think, and to mix my metaphors I'd conclude that he's the big fish in the small pond.

PS Re: OP. I don't think Stu Pomeranz comes close to the top 10.

[Flash- bd]

Davis is a prospect, certainly; he gets good scouting reports and has nice SB numbers. But a .660 OPS at Delmarva at age 20 is pretty poor, and he has absolutely no power right now. To rank him high, I think you have to believe that he's going to add a lot of hitting strength over the next 2-3 years. Not unreasonable to do so.

Mahoney had two solid years in 2010-2011, but they weren't spectacular. 25 in AAA, 1B-man with .715 OPS. Nobody's gonna get excited about that. I don't think he'll be on many top 20 lists.

Brenden Webb is an intriguing player with excellent patience and decent power and speed. But he's playing corner OF, he's 22 at Delmarva, and it's his second year there. If he were having this season at Frederick he'd probably be on the list, and if it were at Bowie he'd be pushing into the top 10. For now, though, you have to put more than just a grain of salt on the numbers, I think, and to mix my metaphors I'd conclude that he's the big fish in the small pond.

PS Re: OP. I don't think Stu Pomeranz comes close to the top 10.

Agree with all of this, it's just that I have a hard time naming 8-10 guys better than those 3 (to fall after the 14 I put above), so even if down to the sheer lack of depth in our system, those 3 are probably top 25 guys.

On Webb, he (sadly) probably is a big fish in a small pond but I like guys with tools and I like guys 3-outcome guys who understand that Ks don't matter and walks and power do. And he steals bases. He'll likely never be a ML starter but guys like him can carve out niche roles while having major (and multitudinous!) warts to their game, and on that fact alone I'd be willing to say he's top 20.

[waroriole]

1. Bundy

2. Machado

3. Gausman

4. Schoop

5. Hoes

6. Avery

7. Wright

8. E. Rodriguez

9. B. Bundy

10. Kline

Did you leave Delmonico off on purpose? I think he's been overrated on here, but in a system like ours, he's a clear Top 10.

[WietersCorner]

1. Bundy

2. Machado

3. Gausman

4. Schoop

5. Delmonico

6. Kline

7. Hoes

8. Rodriguez

9. Avery

10. Urrutia

[waroriole]

Bundy

Machado

Gausman

Schoop

EdRod

Hoes

Avery

Wright

Delmonico

Kline

[EagleOriole]

First four easy:

1. Bundy

2. Machado

3. Gausman

4. Schoop

5. Hoes (production)

6. Ed Rodriguez (projection)

7. Delmonico

8. Avery

9. Urrieta (High hopes for some reason!)

10. Wright

[Flacco Machado]

I tell you what. Is it wrong to think that our Top 4 prospects would stack up pretty darn good against a lot of Top 4's around the league? I'm speaking in terms of premium talent and ML potential. How long is it since we could say that?

[LookinUp]

I tell you what. Is it wrong to think that our Top 4 prospects would stack up pretty darn good against a lot of Top 4's around the league? I'm speaking in terms of premium talent and ML potential. How long is it since we could say that?

It's a nice top 4. I actually think it's a nice top 8. I think Hoes and Avery will both provide some ML value. The question is whether they can stick as a starter or if they'll be 4th OFer/utility types. That's 6 guys that I think will provide value. I'll most look forward to Rodriguez's write-ups at the end of this year. I know he's worth watching, but just don't know how much. Ditto Delmonico for the opposite reason. We're watching him, but his pure numbers aren't that impressive. Do we still plan to try him at 3B? Is he going through an overhaul in his approach that might provide a decent excuse for his average production this year? Is his league a poor hitting league? He could be anywhere from 5-8 on my list.

I also like that we have guys like Pomeranz, Wright, Schrader, etc., who project to provide value out of the pen, as well as a couple of could-surprise-if-they-stay-healthy-and-we-get-lucky guys like Townsend/Drake.

All in all, the system is better because we're really not graduating anyone. The next year will be interesting to follow the Jordan hold-overs, and the 2012 draftees like Kline. It would be awesome if we start to see better MiL results simply as a result of our drafting/signing guys with better baseball IQs, approaches, control, etc.