If we give up a draft pick for Kendrys Morales I will hammer a railroad spike through my head

[mcgraw238]

I'd love to see DD operate w/o the inherent obstacles of the job, which may or may not include a manager involved in the GM hiring process (in other words, I don't think Buck likes losing his vet players). If DD was given a budget and turned loose, I think he would churn this roster annually and field a competitive team year after year.

[atomic]

This is a great summary. It also explains why the Norris trade was such a risky one. Yes, it improved us last year but without the sup. pick, Hader and Hoes, we have much less depth to improve ourselves this year.

Given the current state of our team, I wouldn't give up the pick to sign any of the available free agents. I think there were moves available to us that were low cost, low risk with some upside that we didn't make (Hudson, Hart, Kazmir, Murphy, Colon, trading for Fister and other moves). Just over a month left in the offseason and I still don't understand the team's plan beyond adding some very mildly interesting minor league free agents.

Very disappointing.

Norris trade was actually a very good trade. A guy who can pitch a lot of innings who is only making 3 million this year? And who has been getting better each of the last 3 years and is only 28. You had to give up a lot to get a starter who put up 2 WAR and can pitch innings and doesn't get paid much. If you could get guys like Norris for less we would already have our five starter instead of DD coming up empty handed.

[Frobby]

This is a great summary. It also explains why the Norris trade was such a risky one. Yes, it improved us last year but without the sup. pick, Hader and Hoes, we have much less depth to improve ourselves this year.

Norris trade was actually a very good trade. A guy who can pitch a lot of innings who is only making 3 million this year? And who has been getting better each of the last 3 years and is only 28. You had to give up a lot to get a starter who put up 2 WAR and can pitch innings and doesn't get paid much. If you could get guys like Norris for less we would already have our five starter instead of DD coming up empty handed.

To me, the burden of proof is now on Norris to justify what we gave up to get him. He really wasn't very good for us after his first few starts, and seems to have pretty significant weaknesses. But, he was pitching with a tied arm at the end so I'm hoping to see better from him this year.

[TradeAngelos]

I think people get caught up in the "1st round pick" title and ignore the reality of how many 1st round MLB players make it, or even set foot on a MLB diamond. This isn't the NFL where it is about 80%, in MLB it is about 20%. That is the equivalent of an NFL 5th rounder, which is not worthless but worth very little in the overall scheme of things.

Just look at this article and the numbers, they are downright terrible for a "1st round pick". We are talking about the ENTIRE 1st round here too...not from 17 on down. 59% "play" in the major leagues....even if that is a cup of coffee. Again, terrible.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1662230-2013-mlb-draft-are-hitters-or-pitchers-the-safer-first-round-targets

Finding a legit star? Under 5%, again with top half of 1st round skewing those numbers. I would bet that if they took just 2nd half of 1st round it would be around 1.5-2%. That is insane.

These numbers are just so bad it really makes no sense to worry about the coveted "1st round pick" when talking about moves. It is as close to meaningless as it gets in MLB compared to other sports. It is almost incomprehensible that major league scouts and teams with all these resources could be sop bad at selecting talent, but they are.

[Frobby]

I think people get caught up in the "1st round pick" title and ignore the reality of how many 1st round MLB players make it, or even set foot on a MLB diamond. This isn't the NFL where it is about 80%, in MLB it is about 20%. That is the equivalent of an NFL 5th rounder, which is not worthless but worth very little in the overall scheme of things.

Just look at this article and the numbers, they are downright terrible for a "1st round pick". We are talking about the ENTIRE 1st round here too...not from 17 on down. 59% "play" in the major leagues....even if that is a cup of coffee. Again, terrible.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1662230-2013-mlb-draft-are-hitters-or-pitchers-the-safer-first-round-targets

Finding a legit star? Under 5%, again with top half of 1st round skewing those numbers. I would bet that if they took just 2nd half of 1st round it would be around 1.5-2%. That is insane.

These numbers are just so bad it really makes no sense to worry about the coveted "1st round pick" when talking about moves. It is as close to meaningless as it gets in MLB compared to other sports. It is almost incomprehensible that major league scouts and teams with all these resources could be sop bad at selecting talent, but they are.

As I cited in another thread:

An average no. 17-20 pick is worth about 6 WAR. Of course, results vary widely. Your chances of picking a guy who reaches the majors in those spots are about 65%, and the odds of picking a guy actually worth 6+ WAR are only about 22%. You also have to consider that some of a draftee's value will accrue during his free agent years, so really the average value realized by the team is probably closer to 4 WAR rather than 6.

Still, you have to figure that Morales isn't going to produce more than 2-3 WAR per year from the DH spot, and that's if we're lucky. And, we'll be paying way more than we'd pay some young kid we drafted.

Some guys picked in the 17-20 spots: Roy Halladay, Cole Hammels, Gary Matthews, Charles Nagy, Jeromy Burnitz, Cal Eldred, Brian McRae, David Murphy, Willie Wilson, R.A. Dickey, Glenn Wilson, Joe Magrane, Dan Ford, Carlos May, Roger Clemens, Bobby Grich, Alex Rios, Mike Scoscia, Shannon Stewart, James Loney, Mike Mussina, CC Sabathia, Torii Hunter, Bob Welch, Rick Rhoden, Adam Kennedy, Denard Span, Gregg Jeffries, Eric Milton.

That's 29 players with a career WAR over 10. I'm not sure where you are drawing your "legit star" line , but Morales has been worth 10.6 WAR in his career, so 10 WAR seems like a useful number to use. The chances of picking a player who turns out to be better than Morales over his career are only maybe 1 out of 7, but some of these players are orders of magnitude better than Morales.

[El Gordo]

2-3 WAR from DH the next two years would be a big help if we want to get to the playoffs. If you aren't trying to get to the playoffs then take the pick and hope you get 2-3 WAR per year from him.

[El Gordo]

It sounds like you don't really buy into BAL competing based on the restrictions you believe to be in place (payroll limit/limitations on acquiring an additional arm). If that's the case, throwing the pick away for something like Morales makes even less sense.

I think if you could sign Morales for less than 10M. Burnett for 12 M, we have a shot to compete if we can get a CL in house. Or PA frees up a little more money so we can sign another RP.

[Stotle]

I think if you could sign Morales for less than 10M. Burnett for 12 M, we have a shot to compete if we can get a CL in house. Or PA frees up a little more money so we can sign another RP.

So the only way to trade for an arm that would help BAL really compete would be to trade Gausman or Bundy (per your post above), but signing Burnett gets them there too?

So if Burnett were on a team he'd require Gausman or Bundy in a trade?

[Os84]

I was listening to Jim Duquette on SiriusXM radio earlier and he said that the Orioles are more interested in giving up a pick for Cruz than they are for Morales. If true about Morales, that falls in line with what Roch reported in his blog yesterday.

I also found it interesting that the Orioles would be more willing to give up a pick on Nelson Cruz. Morales seems like more of a pure hitter and is not known to have previously used PEDs. I asked Jim about this on Twitter and he basically told me that the Orioles prefer not to give up a pick for someone who would primarily be the DH. I'm not sure if Jim got this info from Dan or some other source, but it is interesting info.

Jim Duquette and Bowden also mentioned the possibility of a team signing Cruz to a 1-year deal and potentially getting an extra pick for him next year.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'd be ok with something like 3/27 or 3/30 tops for Morales. Along with another pitcher I think he'd help make us be competitive next year and I don't think he does much to damage our future. It's interesting that there is such a wide variation in fWAR (1.2) and rWAR (2.7) on Morales last year. The fielding metrics were very similar. That has to boil down to some difference in replacement value of a DH, The dollar value would be much higher utilizing rWARs numbers.

Lots of great points on both sides here, but I don't need an algorithm to figure this out. I think the best point was made by Stotle that it was a deep draft this year. That gives me some reason to pause.

[weams]

To me, the burden of proof is now on Norris to justify what we gave up to get him. He really wasn't very good for us after his first few starts, and seems to have pretty significant weaknesses. But, he was pitching with a tied arm at the end so I'm hoping to see better from him this year.

Didn't he pull an oblique and pitch through it?

[Il BuonO]

Didn't he pull an oblique and pitch through it?

I thought it was a tired arm or stiff elbow.

[weams]

I was listening to Jim Duquette on SiriusXM radio earlier and he said that the Orioles are more interested in giving up a pick for Cruz than they are for Morales. If true about Morales, that falls in line with what Roch reported in his blog yesterday.

I also found it interesting that the Orioles would be more willing to give up a pick on Nelson Cruz. Morales seems like more of a pure hitter and is not known to have previously used PEDs. I asked Jim about this on Twitter and he basically told me that the Orioles prefer not to give up a pick for someone who would primarily be the DH. I'm not sure if Jim got this info from Dan or some other source, but it is interesting info.

Jim Duquette and Bowden also mentioned the possibility of a team signing Cruz to a 1-year deal and potentially getting an extra pick for him next year.

I think this is still that game of telephone that started when we were talking about Colon.

I am fairly certain that all of Jim's inside info comes from Jen Royle and not Dan.

I can see Cruz not being worth a qualifying offer next year.

[weams]

I thought it was a tired arm or stiff elbow.

You are right, he did miss a start with elbow bark. I thought there was a back or lat issue too.

[weams]

You are right, he did miss a start with elbow bark. I thought there was a back or lat issue too.

Back spasms. Earlier in the season. Not sure if that was what I remember or if it was whispered later.