The Offense

[Herman]

Okay. First, do you expect De Aza's 1:13 walk to strikeout ration to continue? Secondly, what is your definition of a true leadoff hitter and name 3 players who fit your criteria.

Yes, I do expect him to continue striking out at a relatively high rate. Redskins Rick in all of his glory expects his home runs and runs scored to continue so why can't I expect his strikeout/walk rate to continue? I already defined what I think a true leadoff hitter is. The Orioles already have enough guys on the team that strike out and swing at bad pitches so it would have been nice if the guy hitting at the top of the lineup was a bit of a contrast.

Matt Carpenter

Adam Eaton

Shin Soo Choo

Denard Span

Dexter Fowler

Norichika Aoki

Fowler, Eaton, Span and Aoki were all available either this past offseason or in the past 2-3 years. Choo was available last year but he got paid way too much.

[Herman]

You are not going to like this answer but the fact is the O's have other priorities.

1) First priority is stay in budget. 110m last year, 120m this year. Nothing gets in the way of that. The O's don't extend players that don't fit that mold. Nick, Nelson, Miller, Johnson, Reynolds all got too expensive.

2) Keep the pitching. Then keep the pitching depth.

3) Home runs win in the AL. Its no accident that the O's have all these home run hitters. They trade for them, extend them when possible, develop them. Anything to have power.

So the fleas as Earl Weaver would call them are down the list of priorities. That is not to say that if a low cost, high OBP guy that can steal bases comes available they would not try to get him. Its just not the highest thing on their list.

I agree with most of that. However, I think that the imaginary budget is nonsense. Aoki, for example, just signed a 1 year, $4.75 million contract.

[wildcard]

Scoring more runs the opposition wins games. But with the resources on hand when Duquette took over, the environment, the budget, the availability of players, it was the most direct path to develop a team based on defense and power instead of high OBP.

Absolutely. But Dan and Buck will try to develop some OBP. That is what Scott Coolbaugh was brought on to do. Wallace changed the pitching staff. Cooly over time will preach a different tune. We will see if it works.

[Aglets]

Man people struggle with small sample sizes around here.

The reality is that De Aza has a career BB:K ratio of 166:468 (1:2.82) so no he is going to do much better than his current stats project.

Also a career OBP of .330 means that he really might be one of the most qualified leadoff guys we have.

[weams]

Absolutely. But Dan and Buck will try to develop some OBP. That is what Scott Coolbaugh was brought on to do. Wallace changed the pitching staff. Cooly over time will preach a different tune. We will see if it works.

I'm shocked. A great hitting coach can be worth as much as 2 WINS. I would not have guessed. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20474 So the very best coach has a 1 in 81 percent chance of effecting any given game.

Best Hitting Coaches For Teaching Pitch Selectivity

Increase in Selectivity from Average Hitting Coach

Joe Lefebvre

.050

Leon Roberts

.049

Mike Easler

.043

Ray Knight

.043

Jim Rice

.042

Worst Hitting Coaches For Teaching Pitch Selectivity

Decrease in Selectivity from Average Hitting Coach

Chili Davis

-.111

Scott Coolbaugh

-.056

Gregg Ritchie

-.052

Jesse Barfield

-.047

Wade Boggs

-.042

Thia is what Buck and Brady wanted.

[DrungoHazewood]

Absolutely. But Dan and Buck will try to develop some OBP. That is what Scott Coolbaugh was brought on to do. Wallace changed the pitching staff. Cooly over time will preach a different tune. We will see if it works.

I think he'll be there to set a tone and make some tweaks, but if you want OBP you draft it or you acquire it. It's more-or-less impossible to take a guy with poor discipline at the MLB level and turn it into very good discipline.

[wildcard]

I agree with most of that. However, I think that the imaginary budget is nonsense. Aoki, for example, just signed a 1 year, $4.75 million contract.

See Rule #3. Power trumps OBP. They were more interested in Rasmus' power than Aoki speed and OBP. When that didn't work they traded two minor leaguers for Snider's power potential. I am not saying they are right. I am just pointing out the formula that the O's use.

Power first. Then if they can find speed cheap, OK. Cabrera for 2.1M. De Aza's combination of power and speed but they will not pay more than 5M. Even if they have to go to arbitration. Heck wouldn't go 2/10 for McLouth. Way to much for the O's to commit for speed. I am just relaying what I believe is happening.

[backwardsk]

Yes, I do expect him to continue striking out at a relatively high rate. Redskins Rick in all of his glory expects his home runs and runs scored to continue so why can't I expect his strikeout/walk rate to continue? I already defined what I think a true leadoff hitter is. The Orioles already have enough guys on the team that strike out and swing at bad pitches so it would have been nice if the guy hitting at the top of the lineup was a bit of a contrast.

Matt Carpenter

Adam Eaton

Shin Soo Choo

Denard Span

Dexter Fowler

Norichika Aoki

Fowler, Eaton, Span and Aoki were all available either this past offseason or in the past 2-3 years. Choo was available last year but he got paid way too much.

See. The latter part of this post is a really good response. Serves for much better discussion than not providing alternatives. Aoki was discussed quite a bit this offseason. Is he an upgrade? I think it's up for debate. And I accept that it's possible that they could add his salary. However, that would mean we wouldn't have one of De Aza, Young, Snider, or Paredes/Lough. Which one would be gone? Who loses playing time for him?

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[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with most of that. However, I think that the imaginary budget is nonsense. Aoki, for example, just signed a 1 year, $4.75 million contract.

I think the Orioles liked the total package De Aza brings more than they liked Aoki.

[DrungoHazewood]

See Rule #3. Power trumps OBP. They were more interested in Rasmus' power than Aoki speed and OBP. When that didn't work they traded two minor leaguers for Snider's power potential. I am not saying they are right. I am just pointing out the formula that the O's use.

Power first. Then if they can find speed cheap, OK. Cabrera for 2.1M. De Aza's combination of power and speed but they will not pay more than 5M. Even if they have to go to arbitration. Heck wouldn't go 2/10 for McLouth. Way to much for the O's to commit for speed. I am just relaying what I believe is happening.

No, power doesn't trump OBP. You could argue that a combination of (power + bad OBP) has a better price point than OBP. But not making outs is still the most important thing any batter can do.

[wildcard]

I think he'll be there to set a tone and make some tweaks, but if you want OBP you draft it or you acquire it. It's more-or-less impossible to take a guy with poor discipline at the MLB level and turn it into very good discipline.

Just watch what happens to Schoop. It will be interesting.

[wildcard]

No, power doesn't trump OBP. You could argue that a combination of (power + bad OBP) has a better price point than OBP. But not making outs is still the most important thing any batter can do.

That is a different argument. I am saying what I think the O's are thinking and doing. At Fanfest, Buck and Dan on the stage. The question is asked about acquiring OBP. They say together at almost the same moment - Power wins in the AL.

So I am not arguing with your OBP approach. I am saying that is not what the O's management are doing,

[wildcard]

His approach is way different so far. Small sample, etc.

That is why I say it will be interesting to watch and listen to him. See whether Cooly influences him and whether it works to make him a better OBP hitter.

[weams]

That is why I say it will be interesting to watch and listen to him. See whether Cooly influences him and whether it works to make him a better OBP hitter.

Has Mr. Coolbaugh ever had that influence? Or is he a swing Dr.

[wildcard]

This is not the exact clip I am looking for but listen to what Dan says at the end of the clip.