Sun: Cubs Offer Ceden, Gallagher, Veal and maybe a 4th player - For Roberts

[chicubsvatech]

It would be more like,Gallagher,Veal,EPATT and Cedeno for BRob and Payton's crappy contract.

As a Cubs fan, I feel like every offer I see on this message board is overpaying for Roberts unless he reverts back to his 2005 form. That said, you guys would laugh if you saw the offers speculated on the Cubs message boards. So I have two not-so-bold predictions:

1) A trade WILL get done before the trade deadline of this year

2) Both sides' fans will hate the deal, feeling like their team got ripped off

I'm not sure how close AM and JH are, but the fans on both message boards are about as close to an agreement as Palestine and Israel.

[Insomniac]

As a Cubs fan, I feel like every offer I see on this message board is overpaying for Roberts unless he reverts back to his 2005 form. That said, you guys would laugh if you saw the offers speculated on the Cubs message boards. So I have two not-so-bold predictions:

1) A trade WILL get done before the trade deadline of this year

2) Both sides' fans will hate the deal, feeling like their team got ripped off

I'm not sure how close AM and JH are, but the fans on both message boards are about as close to an agreement as Palestine and Israel.

You are right, but I think most of us Os fans are fed by the belief that AM will simply not trade Roberts unless someone overpays for him. I think that most of us also believe that the Cubs would be foolish to overpay. Unfortunately for you Cubs fans, though, there is a significant possibility that Hendry will do exactly that.

[OK_Os_Fan]

Do the recent concerns for Lowen's shoulder increase the chances of this trade ?

Gallagher could be much more important now.... yes ?

[hatepaste]

It would be more like,Gallagher,Veal,EPATT and Cedeno for BRob and Payton's crappy contract.

Yah can't imagine the Cubs give up both Gallagher and marshall. If so, the O's gotta jump all over that.

[Ballgame64]

Do the recent concerns for Lowen's shoulder increase the chances of this trade ?

Gallagher could be much more important now.... yes ?

At this point, I am not sure if anything increases the chance of this trade happening. Unfortunately, none of the OH insiders seem to be getting much information.

[blueberryale77]

I don't know if this means anything but Friday Lou is moving Soriano to the 2 hole.It's posted on Chicagosports.com.

Well that doesn't seem like a very smart idea. If the Cubs were to get Roberts and then bat him in front of free swinging Soriano they'd basically be negating his stolen base ability. Whoever you have hitting leadoff, I think #2 is the worst spot in the order you could possibly put Alfonso Soriano.

[blueberryale77]

Yah can't imagine the Cubs give up both Gallagher and marshall. If so, the O's gotta jump all over that.

It does seem that MacPhail's policy is to jump all over as many back end starting pitchers as possible, but I don't see why that would be a good idea. Plus in this particular case I think the O's have already turned down a package that was those two plus either Cedeno, Patterson, or Murton.

[clapdiddy]

Well that doesn't seem like a very smart idea. If the Cubs were to get Roberts and then bat him in front of free swinging Soriano they'd basically be negating his stolen base ability. Whoever you have hitting leadoff, I think #2 is the worst spot in the order you could possibly put Alfonso Soriano.

Great point BBA.

Soriano should be hitting further down in the lineup. Heck, hit him 4th. He'll get all kinds of RBI opportunities if Roberts, Fukudome, and Lee are all hitting in front of him.

[Mackus]

Well that doesn't seem like a very smart idea. If the Cubs were to get Roberts and then bat him in front of free swinging Soriano they'd basically be negating his stolen base ability. Whoever you have hitting leadoff, I think #2 is the worst spot in the order you could possibly put Alfonso Soriano.

The MLB average for pitches per plate appearance overall was 3.78. For all #2 hitters, it was 3.76. Soriano's was 3.67. So basically, Roberts will have one fewer pitch to attempt to steal on every 11 at bats, or about every two games. I really don't think it makes a whole lot of difference. Theres absolutely no chance it'd be as detrimental to "negate his stolen base ability", that's just hyperbole.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Also considering how often Corey Patterson was hitting behind Roberts last year, you'd think he's used to it. How many pitches per plate appearance did he average?

[blueberryale77]

The MLB average for pitches per plate appearance overall was 3.78. For all #2 hitters, it was 3.76. Soriano's was 3.67. So basically, Roberts will have one fewer pitch to attempt to steal on every 11 at bats, or about every two games. I really don't think it makes a whole lot of difference. Theres absolutely no chance it'd be as detrimental to "negate his stolen base ability", that's just hyperbole.

So #2 hitters saw slightly fewer pitches than the average major leaguer? That's odd. Either it shows that the average major league manager has forgotten how to write a lineup or possibly it reflects a lot of first pitch sac bunts lowering the average for 2 hitters? As for Soriano being close to average in PPA, how many of the pitches he sees does he foul off? My observation (and his reputation) has always been that he swings at pitches out of the strike zone and takes very few.

[Mackus]

Also considering how often Corey Patterson was hitting behind Roberts last year, you'd think he's used to it. How many pitches per plate appearance did he average?

Patterson averaged 3.15 P/PA last year. Although only 197 of his 461 at bats came in the #2 hole. I can't find P/PA stats by batting order for teams as a whole, so I don't know how the Orioles did in general in this area.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Patterson averaged 3.15 P/PA last year. Although only 197 of his 461 at bats came in the #2 hole. I can't find P/PA stats by batting order for teams as a whole, so I don't know how the Orioles did in general in this area.

Well either way, Corey spent more time in the #2 hole than any other player on the team last year, so the majority of the time Roberts was dealing with hitting in front of him, and he did OK for himself.

[Harry Carry]

Great point BBA.

Soriano should be hitting further down in the lineup. Heck, hit him 4th. He'll get all kinds of RBI opportunities if Roberts, Fukudome, and Lee are all hitting in front of him.

With Roberts hitting leadoff Soriano would see alot of fastballs and you would see alot of 2-0 leads for the Cubs.

[davearm]

Two questions:

1) Would you substitute Colvin for Ceda or EPat?

2) Would you throw in someone outside the BA top 10 like Suarez, Burke or Huseby if that was the deadlock?

I would you can't let a player that is 2 or 3 years away stop this deal.

F' that. Seriously.

If I'm Hendry and I make a major concession by including Ceda, who by all accounts has been offlimits throughout these negotiations, along with the three other guys the O's have wanted all along, and the response I get from MacPhail is to ask for even more on top of that ("would you throw in someone outside the BA top 10 like Suarez, Burke or Huseby"), I'm absolutely furious. Like steam coming out the ears furious.

I just caved on Ceda, and your response is to try and go back to the well one more time for a fifth guy?

At that point I say a whole lot of really mean and nasty things that one day I might regret (but probably not), put this entire thing in the trashcan, and chalk the whole experience up as another colossal waste of time trying to deal with the O's FO.