Dan Duquette's Series of Unfortunate Events

[glenn__davis]

OP taking some undeserved heat IMO. All he's done is state facts. Even acknowledges that a lot of it is probably bad luck. And despite all of these frustrations from the first 2 months the team is still very much in the race.

[Redskins Rick]

3. Cruz resigned IMO

4. Snider trade not necessary

No GM is perfect.

Cruz, they made a best faith attempt and Seattle over-paid. Wait until 4 seasons from now, and come back and tell us, how wrong this was.

Snider is a pretty good OF, and I know, some are not too enamored with him.

But, his last 7 days, his OPS is .929

[Going Underground]

No GM is perfect.

Cruz, they made a best faith attempt and Seattle over-paid. Wait until 4 seasons from now, and come back and tell us, how wrong this was.

Snider is a pretty good OF, and I know, some are not too enamored with him.

But, his last 7 days, his OPS is .929

For a saviour to rise from these streets

Well now I'm no hero

That's understood

All the redemption I can offer girl

Is beneath this dirty hood

With a chance to make it good somehow

Hey what else can we do now ?

The Orioles can get a bat.

[Aristotelian]

On July 24th, 2014 Dan acquired Jimmy Paredes - what now seems like another great DD move. Sometime between July 24 and July 31 - Dan was obviously cursed. There is no other rational explanation for what has happened to every major transaction he's made since. Don't believe in curses? I defy you to use rational thought to explain this crazy run of results the significant DD decisions have yielded since July 31.

1) Trades Ed Rod for Andrew Miller. EdRod has a 4.79 in AA at the time. Immediately goes crazy - 0.96 ERA the rest of the year. Cruises through AAA, dominates in MLB debut.

2) Makes the somewhat unusual move of announcing a player extension during the playoffs the day before the ALCS. Hardy posts .517 OPS in the series and the team gets swept. This season Hardy down to .508 OPS and having back problems.

3) Elects not to aggressively attempt to resign Andrew Miller. Miller signs with our most hated division rival, posts 0.84 ERA, is definitely in the conversation for best reliver in all of baseball.

4) Elects not to aggressively attempt to resign Nelson Cruz. Cruz leads majors in HR, 1.070 OPS, best hitter in the AL so far.

5) Elects not to aggressively attempt to resign lead off hitter and Gold Glove RF Nick Markakis. Markakis posts .397 OBP - almost 60 points higher than last year - Orioles have some defensive issues in RF.

6) Signs Delmon Young. Young career low .658 OPS. Due to his veteranosity frequently clogs up our clean up spot.

7) Trades for Travis Snider. Snider's OPS drops almost 60 points from last year down to .719. The traded - Brault 3-0 3.59, Tarpley 1-0 1.80 in the minors.

8) Signs Wesley Wright. Wight 5.40 ERA in 1.2 IP, out with shoulder injury.

9) Signs Everth Cabrera. Cabrera career low .476 OPS.

10) Tenders Alejandro De Aza a contract. OPS drops 65 points from last year down to .636. O's have to DFA him.

11) Trades Ryan Webb. Webb ultimately surfaces in Cleveland - career low 1.29 ERA.

This is a really unbelievable run of results. Just sustained spectacular bad luck. Obviously the sample on all these is very low - they could all turn around - but forget sample sizes and math - we're clearly dealing with a curse here. Supernatural forces are at play. Get your De Aza for MVP futures bets in now because wherever he lands he's clearly going to go bananas.

1) Miller was critical to our playoff run last year. Got some huge outs in the DET series. No matter what happens with Ed Rod, the trade was a short term success at least.

2) Hardy has missed 2 innings due to a back issue this year. The other time was a different injury (shoulder). Went cold in the playoffs but he had a decent year with the bat aside from HRs.

3) & 4) The upside of this is payroll flexibility going forward. Now that Ubaldo is performing, we really do not have a single bad contract.

5) & 7) OBP is Nick's one good number. Overall he is having a bad year and will only get worse. Overall Snider/De Aza has given us about what Nick is doing for much less. I would put this on the side of a good non-move.

6) and 8) thru 10) None of these are bad contracts. None of these guys are expected to be core contributors.

11) I am not really worried about Webb turning into Aroldis Chapman. We got a guy back with options who is pitching well in AA.

Basically on every single point you are only telling one side of the story. All of these can be seen as good moves.

[Creamsicle]

1) I didn't mind that deal at the time; integrity says I shouldn't apply hindsight to re-judge it now. Gutsy "all in" move, just didn't work out.

2) I won't judge the JJH extension this early in the contract term.

3) Miller is a closer. We already have a closer.

4) I would've been delighted to keep Cruz - but no way for that length. Tell me in 2017 how disastrous you think it was that DD didn't re-sign him.

5) smh ... only positive about this point is that you avoided splitting an infinitive.

6) DY was cheap.

7) TS might turn out to be good, now that DeAza is gone. Let's see.

8) 9) 10) 11) ..... [sigh]

[wildcard]

Man, I need a cigarette after reading all this back and fourth on here. I always appreciate your posts and input. You are one of the best on here. I sincerely mean that.

I am not sure the OP is meaning that DD isn't to thank. I am sure he does understand that he helped turn around the culture of losing. So did Buck though and I am convinced he had a lot more to do with turning things around than DD. DD is a good GM for acquiring depth. AM was so awful in that respect it offset all his value with his amazing trading abilities.

I don't think the original topic should be dismissed as a discussion point. There were some bad decisions made this offseason and not making moves is also a bad decision.

1. Matusz option should not have been picked up.

2. De Aza should not have been picked up

3. Cruz resigned IMO

4. Snider trade not necessary

5. Young probably not resigned

6. Norris traded (hard to evaluate this however)

I do like the Cabrera move regardless if it works out or not. Same point with Snider-we didn't give up a lot so if you want to get Snider for depth, 4th OFer, I am okay with it but just didn't feel it would have been necessary with Cruz signing.

None of these moves are terrible but deserve criticism, or at the very least discussion without the OP being attacked or called a DD hater or saying he is a screw up. That seems a bit over the top in my opinion.

Sorry Rene but the only one that has brought up the words DD hater or screw up are you. I certainly did not say that.

Dan made judgement calls that any good GM has to make. I don't know that any of them are bad decisions.

Cruz - No one should be surprised that he has having a good year. Not giving him a 4 year deal was about him staying healthy enough to contribute at ages 36 -38 when he will earn 28M dollars.

Miller - 4/36 is a lot to pay for a closer when you are paying Britton 3.2m and O'Day 4.25m. So far that looks like a good call by DD.

Markakis - Its no surprise that Nick is showing no power at a corner OF spot after his neck surgery. That Dan decisioned not to give Nick 4/44m is probably a good decision in the long run.

While the OP focuses on moves that he wants to criticize his post in not balanced.

He does not speak about that many things that have went well.

1) Parades near league leading hitting.

2) Jimenez turnaround

3) Encouraging performances by rookie Wright, Drake and Wilson.

4) Joseph looking very much like a two way player

Its seems that Dan would rather give young, cheap, 20 something players opportunities to improvement rather than give 30 something players big bucks. And who is say he has made bad decisions in doing so.

Many of the moves you point out are short term opportunities given to players to see if that can help the team. If they don't they are replaced. Matusz, De Aza, Snider, Young and Norris probably never were in the long term plan unless they maximized their opportunities to keep their spots.

Last year the O's were 31-32 on June 10th. They didn't take over 1st place until July 5th. I would not be surprised to see something similar take place this year. And what would that say about Dan's decisions?

[Rene88]

Sorry Rene but the only one that has brought up the words DD hater or screw up are you. I certainly did not say that.

I apologize if you misinterpreted. That wasn't directed at you at all. The thread as a whole. I know you would never say such things.

Edit: I loved Nick, but understand that move. I never said anything about that in my post. Miller would have been good but understand why weren't involving in the bidding war there.

Cruz hurts. We can agree to disagree there.

Overall, just saying that OP should be allowed to post his thoughts without being called a DD hater. I didn't get that from his post at all.

[weams]

No GM is perfect.

Cruz, they made a best faith attempt and Seattle over-paid. Wait until 4 seasons from now, and come back and tell us, how wrong this was.

Snider is a pretty good OF, and I know, some are not too enamored with him.

But, his last 7 days, his OPS is .929

Snider would be good if we played him everyday and paid him a lot more in many folks eyes. He was a real prospect, that was just rushed in his development to be a savior. I'd rather his career path than Nick Markakis at this point.

[Redskins Rick]

Snider would be good if we played him everyday and paid him a lot more in many folks eyes. He was a real prospect, that was just rushed in his development to be a savior. I'd rather his career path than Nick Markakis at this point.

I totally agree with you.

[CA-ORIOLE]

1) Miller was critical to our playoff run last year. Got some huge outs in the DET series. No matter what happens with Ed Rod, the trade was a short term success at least.

2) Hardy has missed 2 innings due to a back issue this year. The other time was a different injury (shoulder). Went cold in the playoffs but he had a decent year with the bat aside from HRs.

3) & 4) The upside of this is payroll flexibility going forward. Now that Ubaldo is performing, we really do not have a single bad contract.

5) & 7) OBP is Nick's one good number. Overall he is having a bad year and will only get worse. Overall Snider/De Aza has given us about what Nick is doing for much less. I would put this on the side of a good non-move.

6) and 8) thru 10) None of these are bad contracts. None of these guys are expected to be core contributors.

11) I am not really worried about Webb turning into Aroldis Chapman. We got a guy back with options who is pitching well in AA.

Basically on every single point you are only telling one side of the story. All of these can be seen as good moves.

I basically agree with the above post:.

1. I think the only real big one here is potentially Erod, even that can be rationalized.

2. I also had issues with resigning Matusz, but just don't see that as that big of a deal.

3. DD did not want to go 4 years on Cruz and I don't blame him for that. It's a rational thought process no matter what happens with Cruz.

4. I'd have preferred not to have Delmon Young 2, but I blame Buck more for the way he is using him and Snider.

5. No issues with De Aza and would not be surprised to see him do well on a new team.

The others just seam insignificant and/or bad luck imo.

[CanadianOriole]

My OP was a mistake I guess despite my use of "spectacular bad luck", "sample... is very low" and the suggestion the DD is literally cursed - the fact that I'm not criticizing DD didn't come through. All of these moves could make sense on their own. I was in favor of at least 8 of the 11. My point was to muse "Isn't it kind of remarkable how these have all worked out so far?". It's like our GM is regressing to the mean somehow. It's like he's a hitter who made 11 straight warning track outs. Good process and approach - crazy results.

[Going Underground]

Snider would be good if we played him everyday and paid him a lot more in many folks eyes. He was a real prospect, that was just rushed in his development to be a savior. I'd rather his career path than Nick Markakis at this point.

Hope you are right Weams. Snider does seem to work counts better then almost any Oriole. Do you think he tries too hard with men in scoring position? Trying to prove himself. Also,how was the games? Hot for two games?

[CA-ORIOLE]

My OP was a mistake I guess despite my use of "spectacular bad luck", "sample... is very low" and the suggestion the DD is literally cursed - the fact that I'm not criticizing DD didn't come through. All of these moves could make sense on their own. I was in favor of at least 8 of the 11. My point was to muse "Isn't it kind of remarkable how these have all worked out so far?". It's like our GM is regressing to the mean somehow. It's like he's a hitter who made 11 straight warning track outs. Good process and approach - crazy results.

Understand. Be thankful we are not burdened with massive unproductive contracts, have depth and flexibility and Duquette is not afraid to make moves (whether it's an acquisition or a discard). There are a lot of positive things like Joseph continuing to perform, Paredes and the young pitchers from Norfolk developing and performing well. I also think a lot of these guys are bound to get better.

[Tony-OH]

I guess it's all a matter of perspective.

Dan was hired to be the O's VP of Baseball Operations and he turned the O's around after 14 losing seasons.

1) 2012 - The season after his hiring the O's went to the playoffs for the first time since 1997.

2) 2013 - The O's had their second consecutive winning season.

3) 2014 - The O's won the AL East and beat Detroit in the playoffs.

4) During his first three years with the O's they won more games than any other team in the AL other than Oakland.

5) The O's are currently 2 games back in the AL East and probably have the best pitching depth of any team in their division. Pitching normally wins. The O's are positioned well for another playoff run.

All this has happen because Dan has built a positive relationship with Buck and Peter, a fine front office staff, good drafting, scouting and player development organizations.

Too focus on certain moves that might not have worked out is really to miss the whole point of what Dan has done. The has built a winning organization from one that was a big loser of years. The O's and O's fans are lucky to have him. Most O's fans understand this very well.

Nothing like having the end results to support your position. His doubters can say what they want, since DD has been here the Orioles have been to the playoffs 2 out of the 3 seasons, have had a winning record in all seasons, and like you said, they are still positioned to make a run this year. Do I agree with every move he's made, no, but I'm glad he's been the one making the calls since he got here.

[Dark Helmet]

Understand. Be thankful we are not burdened with massive unproductive contracts, have depth and flexibility and Duquette is not afraid to make moves (whether it's an acquisition or a discard). There are a lot of positive things like Joseph continuing to perform, Paredes and the young pitchers from Norfolk developing and performing well. I also think a lot of these guys are bound to get better.

I hope your right. Bu I don't understand the "they're better than they're playing" logic. I know you didn't say that, but I've heard the announcers saying it. Jones is playing pretty much as he does. They we're relying on guys to repeat years that history says they won't. It was a gamble that hasn't paid off yet.