The Realist's View

[DrungoHazewood]

Whatever. So it worked one time, and because of that we should always find some random minor leaguer and hope he's good instead of signing actual talented players we know will likely produce.

I guess since I won $5 on a scratch off I should quit my job and rely on lottery winnings as my sole source of income.

Yes, you should try that. Once you win the lottery you can buy the Orioles and instruct your new GM (maybe that's you) to only sign good players and stop being stupid and signing bad players.

[Groundhog]

That's inductive reasoning for ya.

[Frobby]

Whatever. So it worked one time, and because of that we should always find some random minor leaguer and hope he's good instead of signing actual talented players we know will likely produce.

I guess since I won $5 on a scratch off I should quit my job and rely on lottery winnings as my sole source of income.

The team does not have sufficient funds or a sufficient farm system to have sure things at every single position on the baseball field. So they have to take some risks at certain spots. In some years those risks will pay off and we'll have a good team. In other years those risks won't pay off as well and our team won't be as good. Those are the facts of life.

[Frobby]

It's fine to do every once and awhile, but to completely rely on that method and pretend it's better than improving our farm system and player development or signing a mid-tier free agent for that spot is ludicrous.

We projected to spend $139 mm on payroll based on the current team, 13th in MLB. We just had to sign several players to extensions that raised their salaries by substantial margins. These are the facts of life. If we had a team full of guys who were in their pre-arb years or even in arbitration, we could afford to fill more holes with free agents. But we don't.

As to improving the farm system, I'm all for it.

[DrungoHazewood]

We projected to spend $139 mm on payroll based on the current team, 13th in MLB. We just had to sign several players to extensions that raised their salaries by substantial margins. These are the facts of life. If we had a team full of guys who were in their pre-arb years or even in arbitration, we could afford to fill more holes with free agents. But we don't.

As to improving the farm system, I'm all for it.

I'm curious as to how they're going to improve the farm system and player development while signing mid-tier free agents to moderately upgrade positions that have reasonable but unexciting and cheap in-house solutions. Most of those mid-tier free agents have draft pick compensation attached, so a strategy based on mid-tier signings makes it harder to add talent to the farm.

[DrungoHazewood]

I swear I could state that 2+2 = 4 and you'd still insist I was wrong. Hilarious.

I'm not the one mocking and deriding the decision to include Nolan Reimold (career OPS 103, .344 OBP in 2015) as one of several options to potentially fill RF.

[Can_of_corn]

And is made of porcelain*

How much time did he spend on the DL last season?

I think folks are a bit hard on a guy that broke his neck going after a ball in the stands.

Reimold is a limited upside low cost type of player that teams need to fill out a roster.

[DrungoHazewood]

And is made of porcelain*

That's why he's not the only option to play right. And it's February 3rd.

What would you do with Reimold? Just release him because he might get hurt?

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not being hard on the guy. His injury history is what it is.

And fill out a roster? Absolutely. Handing him the starting role before spring training and expecting a 32 year old to somehow make some crazy leap and become an above average/borderline all star? Not so much. Steve Pearce was a unicorn in that regard and should be treated as an exception. Putting [insert AAAA player in their low-mid 30's here] in a starting role every single year and expecting 2014 Pearce is insane.

Who has done any such thing? We haven't even established that Reimold is the frontrunner to win the job. We don't know if there will be further acquisitions. And absolutely nobody is even remotely hinting that they expect him to be a borderline all star or a completely out of nowhere 5-win player like Steve Pearce. This type of wild exaggeration is why I may question your ability to tie 1+1 and 2 together.

[Can_of_corn]

Who has done any such thing? We haven't even established that Reimold is the frontrunner to win the job. We don't know if there will be further acquisitions. And absolutely nobody is even remotely hinting that they expect him to be a borderline all star or a completely out of nowhere 5-win player like Steve Pearce. This type of wild exaggeration is why I may question your ability to tie 1+1 and 2 together.

Even in his prime (if he had one) Reimold wouldn't have been able to put together a 5 win season, not with his defense.

He'd need to turn into Cruz with the bat.

[weams]

Even in his prime (if he had one) Reimold wouldn't have been able to put together a 5 win season, not with his defense.

He'd need to turn into Cruz with the bat.

We forget just how hard it is for Cruz to add value to a team.

[weams]

Who has done any such thing? We haven't even established that Reimold is the frontrunner to win the job. We don't know if there will be further acquisitions. And absolutely nobody is even remotely hinting that they expect him to be a borderline all star or a completely out of nowhere 5-win player like Steve Pearce. This type of wild exaggeration is why I may question your ability to tie 1+1 and 2 together.

I think that Flaherty is currently on the "depth chart" for the job. I suspect it will be someone other than Nolan or Ryan on opening day.

[DrungoHazewood]

Even in his prime (if he had one) Reimold wouldn't have been able to put together a 5 win season, not with his defense.

He'd need to turn into Cruz with the bat.

In 2009, in 104 games, he was worth almost three wins despite an OPS+ of just 116. With BIS numbers from bb-ref, at least. UZR took a far less favorable view of his performance, one of the biggest discrepancies I've seen (+5 vs. -12 in 2/3rds of a season).

Anyway, 2.6 wins in 104 games is 3.75 in 150. He would have had to shown some hitting growth to get near 5.

[weams]

In 2009, in 104 games, he was worth almost three wins despite an OPS+ of just 116. With BIS numbers from bb-ref, at least. UZR took a far less favorable view of his performance, one of the biggest discrepancies I've seen (+5 vs. -12 in 2/3rds of a season).

Anyway, 2.6 wins in 104 games is 3.75 in 150. He would have had to shown some hitting growth to get near 5.

Nelson Cruz has 21 WAR in his career. Half the last two seasons at ages 33 and 34. That has to give Nolan hope when he looking in his mirror. Did I mention that Nolan is older than Nick Markakis?

[DrungoHazewood]

Ok then, replace Reimold with Alvarez, a guy who may or may not be able to hit major league pitching, can't get on base, and can't play great defense other than when it comes to throwing.

Or Rickard, who has never played in the majors.

Or Hoes, whose average and in base skills haven't come close to translating to the major league level.

These are "great" options?

Who said they were great options? The hope is that a combination of reasonably good players will lead to a reasonably productive solution in RF. All of those players have some skills and some upside, in the right roles and combinations they could be successful. That formula was a large part of the success of the 1975-1983 Orioles, the 1989 Orioles, the 2012 Orioles. They all had multiple players from the discard pile provide great value. Benny Ayala couldn't get out of the Mets' minor league system, was 28 and had less than 50 MLB games when the Orioles acquired him for a pinch runner named Mike Dimmel. John Lowenstein was 31 and coming off a season where he hit .222 as a utility guy before the Orioles placed him in a successful platoon.

If you want to win and not blow the budget and your draft picks you need to be creative. Almost all good teams have spots they give to role players.