Wieters and Rutschman

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’m drooling at this point.    All eyes are on the guy and he’s just dominating out of the gate.   

Nowhere to go but down at this rate!

[ChrisP]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wieter001mat

 

After hitting .365 in Bowie and being a .250 ML hitter, I don't get excited about most young players. I was here (as many others) thinking we had a future HOF'er. 

[Absltgreek]

Another solid weekend for Rutschman, season numbers up to: .400/.595/.920, with 11R, 4 hr, 11 RBI, 12bb, and only 5k!

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Absltgreek said:

Another solid weekend for Rutschman, season numbers up to: .400/.595/.920, with 11R, 4 hr, 11 RBI, 12bb, and only 5k!

A key number there is 12 bb.   In 8 games, 37 PA.    Opponents are afraid to pitch to him.  

[Just Regular]

Even the tough Fangraphs guys now say 60 FV (and about #15 overall prospect if he was a pro):

1. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
After Eric watched him go off again this weekend, we’ve upgraded him to a 60 FV and would have him right behind Keibert Ruiz at 16 on the Top 100. He’s creating more distance between himself and the field for the top pick.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/updated-2019-2020-and-2021-draft-rankings-on-the-board/

I noticed Oregon State's first two weekends of games were at Surprise in Arizona spring training.  I haven't seen any reported, but front offices may have Statcast-y data from those two weekends to sift as well.

[calsmanystances]

Just wanted to point out what Andrew Vaughn, the 1B from Cal (the Pac-12, same conference as Rutschman) has accomplished and is currently doing.

In 2017, as a freshman, Vaughn stats were: .349, .414 OBP and .555 SLG (.969 OPS.]

Last year, Vaughn won the Golden Spikes award. His stats were insane.

.402 average,

.531 OBP and. 819 SLG (1.350 OPS). Oh, he also had 23 HR 44 Walks and 18 K's. That's right, he not only walked almost 2.5 times for each K, he also had more HR's than K's.

This season, Vaughn is putting up even better numbers. In 11 games, he's 11-21 (.524), 3 HR, 9 RBI, 14 walks and 3 K's. .714 OBP and 1.000 SLG (1.714 OPS).  His college numbers dwarf those of Kris Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt. I understand that C has more value than 1B, but C also has a shorter life span. Vaughn deserves consideration at 1-1.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, calsmanystances said:

Just wanted to point out what Andrew Vaughn, the 1B from Cal (the Pac-12, same conference as Rutschman) has accomplished and is currently doing.

In 2017, as a freshman, Vaughn stats were: .349, .414 OBP and .555 SLG (.969 OPS.]

Last year, Vaughn won the Golden Spikes award. His stats were insane.

.402 average,

.531 OBP and. 819 SLG (1.350 OPS). Oh, he also had 23 HR 44 Walks and 18 K's. That's right, he not only walked almost 2.5 times for each K, he also had more HR's than K's.

This season, Vaughn is putting up even better numbers. In 11 games, he's 11-21 (.524), 3 HR, 9 RBI, 14 walks and 3 K's. .714 OBP and 1.000 SLG (1.714 OPS).  His college numbers dwarf those of Kris Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt. I understand that C has more value than 1B, but C also has a shorter life span. Vaughn deserves consideration at 1-1.

Really good post.    I do think Vaughn will get consideration.    Right now I’d still prefer Rutschman, but let’s see how the season goes.   

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, calsmanystances said:

Just wanted to point out what Andrew Vaughn, the 1B from Cal (the Pac-12, same conference as Rutschman) has accomplished and is currently doing.

In 2017, as a freshman, Vaughn stats were: .349, .414 OBP and .555 SLG (.969 OPS.]

Last year, Vaughn won the Golden Spikes award. His stats were insane.

.402 average,

.531 OBP and. 819 SLG (1.350 OPS). Oh, he also had 23 HR 44 Walks and 18 K's. That's right, he not only walked almost 2.5 times for each K, he also had more HR's than K's.

This season, Vaughn is putting up even better numbers. In 11 games, he's 11-21 (.524), 3 HR, 9 RBI, 14 walks and 3 K's. .714 OBP and 1.000 SLG (1.714 OPS).  His college numbers dwarf those of Kris Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt. I understand that C has more value than 1B, but C also has a shorter life span. Vaughn deserves consideration at 1-1.

He had already caught my eye as an amazing bat given his overall ranking as a R/R first baseman with an iffy body.  Definitely someone I'm curious to learn more about, probably starting with how a hitter this good ever got to college in the first place.

[calsmanystances]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Really good post.    I do think Vaughn will get consideration.    Right now I’d still prefer Rutschman, but let’s see how the season goes.   

Thanks.

I forgot to add that Vaughn did go to the Cape Cod League last summer before joining Team USA. He was really solid there with the wood bat. In 14 games, he hit .308 with 5 HR with a 1.022 OPS. One of his teammates was Bryson Stott, the SS from UNLV who will likely be a first round pick as well. In 12 games, Stott was .275 with a .708 OPS. Rutschman did not play in the Cape Cod League last year (if I recall it was due to his long season after winning the CWS), but he did in 2017. In 2017, in 20 games, he hit .164 with a .461 OPS. Admittedly these are small sample sizes and Rutschman has clearly grown as a player since 2017. It's just more food for thought on Vaughn and trying to put his numbers into perspective relative to his peers. 

If Rutschman continues to hit as he has at the start of this season, and as he did last year for OSU, who can complain if we draft him 1-1?  My concerns with him are (i) how he struck out 40 times last year in 250 AB while Vaughn only struck out 18 times in the same conference, and (ii) he's a catcher and, to me, catchers are somewhat similar to RB's in that you know their prime is a short window of time and you likely don't want to sign them to a large contract when they get to free agency. By the time we are ready to win, how many years will we have left with Rutschman? 

The scouting reports that I have read on Vaughn are that his numbers are legit in that he is the best hitter in the draft, but I will leave it to guys like Luke who watch endless amounts of tape and know what they are talking about to weigh in on Vaughn's (and Rutschman's) hitting mechanics and swing plane. I just know that if someone told me we could draft Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt at 1-1, I'd say "sign me up."

[Just Regular]

https://www.mlb.com/news/recall-mlbs-no-1-overall-draft-picks/c-275618784

Just browsing the history of 1-1's, I don't see anyone like Vaughn ever.  Phil Nevin struck me as closest, but I'm remembering his later career and he played more third than first.  Adrian Gonzalez was left handed, as was Baines.  Pat Burrell and Delmon Young were bad outfielders, I guess.

Circle March 22-24 (California at Oregon State),

[Spl51]

1 hour ago, calsmanystances said:

Thanks.

I forgot to add that Vaughn did go to the Cape Cod League last summer before joining Team USA. He was really solid there with the wood bat. In 14 games, he hit .308 with 5 HR with a 1.022 OPS. One of his teammates was Bryson Stott, the SS from UNLV who will likely be a first round pick as well. In 12 games, Stott was .275 with a .708 OPS. Rutschman did not play in the Cape Cod League last year (if I recall it was due to his long season after winning the CWS), but he did in 2017. In 2017, in 20 games, he hit .164 with a .461 OPS. Admittedly these are small sample sizes and Rutschman has clearly grown as a player since 2017. It's just more food for thought on Vaughn and trying to put his numbers into perspective relative to his peers. 

If Rutschman continues to hit as he has at the start of this season, and as he did last year for OSU, who can complain if we draft him 1-1?  My concerns with him are (i) how he struck out 40 times last year in 250 AB while Vaughn only struck out 18 times in the same conference, and (ii) he's a catcher and, to me, catchers are somewhat similar to RB's in that you know their prime is a short window of time and you likely don't want to sign them to a large contract when they get to free agency. By the time we are ready to win, how many years will we have left with Rutschman? 

The scouting reports that I have read on Vaughn are that his numbers are legit in that he is the best hitter in the draft, but I will leave it to guys like Luke who watch endless amounts of tape and know what they are talking about to weigh in on Vaughn's (and Rutschman's) hitting mechanics and swing plane. I just know that if someone told me we could draft Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt at 1-1, I'd say "sign me up."

Rutschman led that team USA with .355/.432/.516, while being and elite defender and a great leader. The value he would provide can't even be close to reached by a R/R 1st baseman. Even if you believe that  nonsense about catchers declining faster(show any proof of that/I'm sure slow first basemen decline just as fast), that kind of production and defense from catcher is way more valuable and rare due to the lack of talent from the position around the league than 1st base. I could see the argument that he will be ready too fast for our rebuild, but that's an argument for a HS player, I don't see why we would pick Vaughn over Rutschman.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Spl51 said:

Rutschman led that team USA with .355/.432/.516, while being and elite defender and a great leader. The value he would provide can't even be close to reached by a R/R 1st baseman. Even if you believe that  nonsense about catchers declining faster(show any proof of that/I'm sure slow first basemen decline just as fast), that kind of production and defense from catcher is way more valuable and rare due to the lack of talent from the position around the league than 1st base. I could see the argument that he will be ready too fast for our rebuild, but that's an argument for a HS player, I don't see why we would pick Vaughn over Rutschman.

If you think Vaughn will be a substantially better hitter than Rutschman, you can certainly make the case.    As measured by WAR, Joey Votto has been more valuable in 11+ years (58 WAR) than Joe Mauer was in his 14+ seasons (55), the last several of which were spent at 1B anyway.   Paul Goldschmidt (40 WAR through age 30) may end up being more valuable than Mauer.    Freddie Freeman (33 WAR through age 28) may get there.   And Mauer was one of the most valuable catchers ever, certainly the most valuable of the last 15 years.   

That said, you’d have to be very convinced of Vaughn’s bat to pick him over Rutschman.   

[Spl51]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

If you think Vaughn will be a substantially better hitter than Rutschman, you can certainly make the case.    As measured by WAR, Joey Votto has been more valuable in 11+ years (58 WAR) than Joe Mauer was in his 14+ seasons (55), the last several of which were spent at 1B anyway.   Paul Goldschmidt (40 WAR through age 30) may end up being more valuable than Mauer.    Freddie Freeman (33 WAR through age 28) may get there.   And Mauer was one of the most valuable catchers ever, certainly the most valuable of the last 15 years.   

That said, you’d have to be very convinced of Vaughn’s bat to pick him over Rutschman.   

 Here's the thing though, finding a 3 annual WAR first baseman is much easier to do, meaning that it is much cheaper to find on the free agent market or from within. There was only 2 catchers in baseball with more than 3 WAR last year. You have fill the position somehow and getting that much production from catcher gives you a huge advantage. 

[LookinUp]

If I believed Vaughn would have the better bat, I'd be really tempted to take him. First, I want the better bat. Second, and I may be wrong, but I do have the perception that catchers peak for shorter windows. Third, I bet we could save draft slot $$ by taking Vaughn and then targeting other upside guys later in the draft. 

Truthfully, I have no idea how I'd handle it though. I plan on learning something from how the Orioles approach this, for sure.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

If I believed Vaughn would have the better bat, I'd be really tempted to take him. First, I want the better bat. Second, and I may be wrong, but I do have the perception that catchers peak for shorter windows. Third, I bet we could save draft slot $$ by taking Vaughn and then targeting other upside guys later in the draft. 

Truthfully, I have no idea how I'd handle it though. I plan on learning something from how the Orioles approach this, for sure.

As long as the O's get the 6+ years out of him I don't care if he signs a minor league deal with the Cardinals three years later.