Official 2019 Wins Prediction

[mdbdotcom]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just don't see how anyone can look at the current roster and see a 15+ game improvement over last season.

Last year's Pythagorean W-L was eight games below actual, so it's only a seven game jump.

Still, I'm sticking to 59, and that's with some of the prospects joining the team by mid-season. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, mdbdotcom said:

Last year's Pythagorean W-L was eight games below actual, so it's only a seven game jump.

Still, I'm sticking to 59, and that's with some of the prospects joining the team by mid-season. 

But the Pythagorean discrepancy went away after the deadline.  Before the deadline they were underachieving, after the deadline they had 115 loss talent.

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

But the Pythagorean discrepancy went away after the deadline.  Before the deadline they were underachieving, after the deadline they had 115 loss talent.

Maybe this year's squad will just be that much less depressed than last year's.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

Maybe this year's squad will just be that much less depressed than last year's.

It is certainly possible they will lose under 100.

I just can't see predicting it based on what we have to work with.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Well we're minus Gausman and I honestly don't think we've seen the worst of Cashner. I wouldn't be surprised if they toy with releasing him by mid-season. 

I think our odds of seeing collective improvement from Cobb, Bundy and Cashner this year are better than our odds of seeing further deterioration.   I agree losing Gausman is a big blow.   

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think our odds of seeing collective improvement from Cobb, Bundy and Cashner this year are better than our odds of seeing further deterioration.   I agree losing Gausman is a big blow.   

We'll see. I'm not convinced he went over to ATL and is suddenly a sub-3.00 ERA guy, although that would be very Orioles.

He is, however, exactly the type of guy you'd want Elias and Co. to get their hands on. Moreso than Bundy, who sort of just seems like he is what he is, data be damned. 

[osfan83]

62-63 wins.....we have some guys starting the season playing for their MLB careers.....that has to count for something right?

Martin/Jackson/Mullins/Rickard/Rio/Nunez

These guys have been given a golden opportunity, a couple will step up and surprise. 

[Flosman]

I went with 82+ just because. I know I am wrong.

[Number5]

3 hours ago, Flosman said:

I went with 82+ just because. I know I am wrong.

You must be married.

[Frobby]

It looks like the median OHer is pretty close to where Vegas and the pundits are.    The median point in the poll is in the 56-60 range.    Meanwhile the under/over in Vegas is 58.5, ZiPS has us at 59,  PECOTA has us at 57.

[foxfield]

I say 56.  Better than last year because of attitude and scrappiness.  

 

 

I said 92 I think last year, so be prepared for 11-151...

[Cumberbundy]

38 wins.

 

 

[Frobby]

On 3/25/2019 at 1:42 PM, Frobby said:

I picked 51-55, because that’s incredibly awful without being quite as awful as last year.    Honestly, based on the talent currently on our major league roster, we could be worse than in 2018, but I’m assuming that a fresh attitude and some analytic voodoo probably buy us a few more wins than last year.    Not a lot more, unfortunately.    

I was in the 28% who correctly guessed 51-55.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I was in the 28% who correctly guessed 51-55.