Rethinking Minor League Baseball

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

While I fully support the draft rounds being lowered, 20 seems a like a deep cut. I guess it does give more players a chance to sign with teams with a better opportunities, but 30 rounds seem more realistic. Not a fan of the signed players not playing in a league though as it would make it a lot harder for us to see them initially. I'd like to see maybe one Rookie League where new players get to play for half a season.

I’m old enough to remember when the NBA draft was ten rounds; now it’s two.    The NFL draft was 17 rounds in 1975; today its 7 rounds.        Baseball is a different beast, but I’m not surprised they’d like to cut the draft way back.   
 

Interestingly, I decided to look back on our past drafts to see how many late round picks made the majors.    In the very first year I looked at, 2000, our 32nd through 36th picks all made the majors — and they’re the only players we drafted that year who did!   Of course, 4 of those 5 didn’t sign with the O’s that summer and were drafted again later, in much higher rounds.     The only one we actually signed was Kirk Birkins, who we drafted as an outfielder in the 33rd round and was later converted to a pitcher, where he had a brief career as a roughly replacement level pitcher (-0.4 rWAR in 75.1 innings spread over three seasons).   

[Number5]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m old enough to remember when the NBA draft was ten rounds; now it’s two.    The NFL draft was 17 rounds in 1975; today its 7 rounds.        Baseball is a different beast, but I’m not surprised they’d like to cut the draft way back.   
 

Interestingly, I decided to look back on our past drafts to see how many late round picks made the majors.    In the very first year I looked at, 2000, our 32nd through 36th picks all made the majors — and they’re the only players we drafted that year who did!   Of course, 4 of those 5 didn’t sign with the O’s that summer and were drafted again later, in much higher rounds.     The only one we actually signed was Kirk Birkins, who we drafted as an outfielder in the 33rd round and was later converted to a pitcher, where he had a brief career as a roughly replacement level pitcher (-0.4 rWAR in 75.1 innings spread over three seasons).   

If they go to 20 rounds, guys like Birkins can still be signed as undrafted free agents and have just about the same odds of making it to the majors, right?

[MurphDogg]

13 minutes ago, Number5 said:

If they go to 20 rounds, guys like Birkins can still be signed as undrafted free agents and have just about the same odds of making it to the majors, right?

Doubtful. There wouldn't be a roster spot available for him.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

While I fully support the draft rounds being lowered, 20 seems a like a deep cut. I guess it does give more players a chance to sign with teams with a better opportunities, but 30 rounds seem more realistic. Not a fan of the signed players not playing in a league though as it would make it a lot harder for us to see them initially. I'd like to see maybe one Rookie League where new players get to play for half a season.

I agree with you on the draft.

I think that the not playing their draft year is one of the big advantages for teams with modern player development programs. It allows them to much better and more quickly remedy strength or movement deficiencies and get them started on a customized plan of action for getting them big league ready. We’ll just have to head down to Sarasota to check it out.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Number5 said:

If they go to 20 rounds, guys like Birkins can still be signed as undrafted free agents and have just about the same odds of making it to the majors, right?

For one thing, I think teams won’t spend many picks on high school kids they aren’t certain they can sign.    As it stands now, the teams draft 40 but only sign about 30ish players.    Several of the players who sign in the late rounds are overslot guys, not guys who were drafted that late based purely on assessment of their talent.     So, I think you’d see teams signing a much higher percentage of the guys they pick, and picking them in the order of their talent and ability rather than pushing guys down for signability reasons.   
 

What happens to the Birkinses of the world, I don’t know.    Remember, he wasn’t drafted as a pitcher; that came later.    My guess is he’d have been playing Indy ball, if anything.   

[Tony-OH]

38 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I agree with you on the draft.

I think that the not playing their draft year is one of the big advantages for teams with modern player development programs. It allows them to much better and more quickly remedy strength or movement deficiencies and get them started on a customized plan of action for getting them big league ready. We’ll just have to head down to Sarasota to check it out.

Yeah, it makes sense and yes, we'll have to get ourselves down there if this happens.

[Number5]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For one thing, I think teams won’t spend many picks on high school kids they aren’t certain they can sign.    As it stands now, the teams draft 40 but only sign about 30ish players.    Several of the players who sign in the late rounds are overslot guys, not guys who were drafted that late based purely on assessment of their talent.     So, I think you’d see teams signing a much higher percentage of the guys they pick, and picking them in the order of their talent and ability rather than pushing guys down for signability reasons.   
 

What happens to the Birkinses of the world, I don’t know.    Remember, he wasn’t drafted as a pitcher; that came later.    My guess is he’d have been playing Indy ball, if anything.   

Maybe someone can explain to me what I'm missing, but it seems to me that the current system limits what teams can offer over-slot guys to convince them to sign, rather than attend school.  With this new proposal, these guys probably aren't drafted and can be offered free agent contracts without the dollar amount limitations, right?  What would prevent this from happening?  Seems to give the advantage, yet again, to the teams with the deep pockets.

[jarman86]

23 hours ago, Number5 said:

Maybe someone can explain to me what I'm missing, but it seems to me that the current system limits what teams can offer over-slot guys to convince them to sign, rather than attend school.  With this new proposal, these guys probably aren't drafted and can be offered free agent contracts without the dollar amount limitations, right?  What would prevent this from happening?  Seems to give the advantage, yet again, to the teams with the deep pockets.

I'm sure MLB will address this and we just have yet to hear the details.  My guess is entry level contracts that are fairly non-negotiable. 

[MurphDogg]

On 11/18/2019 at 2:34 PM, Number5 said:

Maybe someone can explain to me what I'm missing, but it seems to me that the current system limits what teams can offer over-slot guys to convince them to sign, rather than attend school.  With this new proposal, these guys probably aren't drafted and can be offered free agent contracts without the dollar amount limitations, right?  What would prevent this from happening?  Seems to give the advantage, yet again, to the teams with the deep pockets.

Undrafted free agents are subject to the same limits as all players drafted after round 10, any bonus over $125,000 counts against the draft pool.

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Undrafted free agents are subject to the same limits as all players drafted after round 10, any bonus over $125,000 counts against the draft pool.

Thanks.  I didn't know that.

[Spl51]

It's a whole thread.

Gonna be honest, I 100% agree with this. Why is congress telling the MLB how best to develop players? It's totally out of line.The system shouldn't just stay in place because it's always been like that. Changes need to be made to improve the player pipeline including amenities, facilities, and technology that is more streamlined.

[Dale]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/commissioner-rob-manfred-comments-on-minor-league-reorganization/

Kyle Glaser interviewed Rob Manfred.  Nothing really new here but to summarize: 

MLB has 4 issues with the current set-up

1) More than 40 facilities are inadequate and it is up to minor league teams to upgrade them.  A list of the facilities was leaked by MiLB. 

2) Teams within each league need to be relatively close to each other to minimize "school bus rides"

3) Minor league players need to be paid more

4) Too many minor league players and teams.  Many do not have a realistic chance of making the majors. MLB plans to support 120 minor league teams.  Left out towns would be encouraged to have professional teams but they would not be directly affiliated with MLB.

[Frobby]

Long article here analyzing the effects of the proposed elimination of the 42 affiliations:   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/take-me-out-to-the-ballgame-mapping-the-new-milb-landscape/

Frederick has the second highest attendance of any team on the “hit list.”

[Enjoy Terror]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Long article here analyzing the effects of the proposed elimination of the 42 affiliations:   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/take-me-out-to-the-ballgame-mapping-the-new-milb-landscape/

Frederick has the second highest attendance of any team on the “hit list.”

Halem didn't cite attendance as a criterion for keep/remove.

[NCRaven]

High attendance might make Frederick more likely to survive as an independent team than some of the others.  Having said that, this is another baseball fan unfriendly proposal by MLB.  Part of player development is developing an interested fan base.  Minor league baseball helps (I would think) to do that.