Rule 5: Brandon Bailey - RHP -Astros

[Just Regular]

Razzball's fantasy guy is gaga, predicting he'd be the Orioles best pitcher, touting specifically his Swinging Strike rate as one of the best in all the minors.

https://razzball.com/rule-5-draft-prospecting-for-fantasy-value/

I couldn't find SwStr% on Fangraphs, but he was 2nd in the Texas League in K% (26.7%) if you let the filter down to the 90 IP workload he cleared:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=7&stats=pit&qual=90&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=8,1

For comparison, the K% of Baysox starters last year were:

Lowther 26.0%, Kremer 25.0 %, Baumann 24.3%, Zimmermann 23.8% Wells 18.9%

I'd set my initial expectation he'd be like Zimmermann/Wells having to make the team, but maybe he's more like the better AA guys.  At least in terms of pure dominance perspective - his control did lag all of them.

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Razzball's fantasy guy is gaga, predicting he'd be the Orioles best pitcher, touting specifically his Swinging Strike rate as one of the best in all the minors.

https://razzball.com/rule-5-draft-prospecting-for-fantasy-value/

I couldn't find SwStr% on Fangraphs, but he was 2nd in the Texas League in K% (26.7%) if you let the filter down to the 90 IP workload he cleared:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=7&stats=pit&qual=90&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=8,1

For comparison, the K% of Baysox starters last year were:

Lowther 26.0%, Kremer 25.0 %, Baumann 24.3%, Zimmermann 23.8% Wells 18.9%

I'd set my initial expectation he'd be like Zimmermann/Wells having to make the team, but maybe he's more like the better AA guys.  At least in terms of pure dominance perspective - his control did lag all of them.

He had the 32nd highest swinging strike rate of pitchers in the minors with 90+ IP. (15.3%)

Nick Vespi lead the Orioles system with 16.1%

Gray Fenter, Ryan Wilson, Grayson Rodriguez, and Michael Baumann are also in the top 50. 

Kyle Bradish is 54th. 

[Just Regular]

Brad Keller's a notable success so far - he too was Rule 5'd after his AA season.  He was 41 games/20 starts in his first Royals season (relief in April/May), then a rotation regular last year.  Keller was a high school pitcher with youth and prototypical size, but Bailey looks to have a chance to do what he did.

[Luke-OH]

18 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Brad Keller's a notable success so far - he too was Rule 5'd after his AA season.  He was 41 games/20 starts in his first Royals season (relief in April/May), then a rotation regular last year.  Keller was a high school pitcher with youth and prototypical size, but Bailey looks to have a chance to do what he did.

I think I had Keller ranked around 15th on my preference list that year. What I didn't know was that his velocity had ticked up 2-3mph. 

[weams]

On 12/14/2019 at 9:18 AM, Luke-OH said:

I think I had Keller ranked around 15th on my preference list that year. What I didn't know was that his velocity had ticked up 2-3mph. 

What causes these velocity increases? Mechanics? Weighted ball training? Something else?

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, weams said:

What causes these velocity increases? Mechanics? Weighted ball training? Something else?

Don't know in Keller's case. 

[Luke-OH]

Keller still cuts his fastball and probably could tweak the release and improve things. 

[Luke-OH]

This is from Brandon Bailey's blog. https://brandonbailey1994.com/2019/03/19/how-do-i-top-that/

It mirrors some of the things player development was doing with pitchers in the Orioles system in 2019.

"What I didn’t understand was that the Astros player development staff was purposely challenging me to get out of my comfort zone, propelling me to throw more curveballs and sliders rather than my bread & butter fastball-changeup combo. This new challenge forced me to deal with some failure and adversity; and while no player ever wants to be told that they have blaring weaknesses in their game, sometimes it’s the brutally honest conversations that lead to the biggest improvements.

“We’re not preparing you to have success in the Carolina League,” my High-A pitching coach Drew French explained to me one day after a tough outing, “We are preparing you to have success in the big leagues.”"

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

This is from Brandon Bailey's blog. https://brandonbailey1994.com/2019/03/19/how-do-i-top-that/

It mirrors some of the things player development was doing with pitchers in the Orioles system in 2019.

"What I didn’t understand was that the Astros player development staff was purposely challenging me to get out of my comfort zone, propelling me to throw more curveballs and sliders rather than my bread & butter fastball-changeup combo. This new challenge forced me to deal with some failure and adversity; and while no player ever wants to be told that they have blaring weaknesses in their game, sometimes it’s the brutally honest conversations that lead to the biggest improvements.

“We’re not preparing you to have success in the Carolina League,” my High-A pitching coach Drew French explained to me one day after a tough outing, “We are preparing you to have success in the big leagues.”"

Good quote. @Luke-OH is there anyone that you noticed last year that coaching tinkered with what pitches they throw?  Could we see more of that this year given that the new regime has a year of observing under their belts?

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good quote. @Luke-OH is there anyone that you noticed last year that coaching tinkered with what pitches they throw?  Could we see more of that this year given that the new regime has a year of observing under their belts?

Hall and Akin are confirmed as guys who were instructed to work on offspeed pitches, even behind in the count.

[sportsfan8703]

12 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Hall and Akin are confirmed as guys who were instructed to work on offspeed pitches, even behind in the count.

Interesting.  Well that could be a reason to keep Akin down in AAA to start the season.  Let him keep working on things, versus just having to try and survive in the MLB.  

[Frobby]

From milb.com:

[T]his edition of Toolshed evaluates the stickiness level of all 11 players taken in the Rule 5 Draft on a rating of one (least likely) to five (most likely).

* * *
2. Brandon Bailey, RHP, Orioles (from Astros): The Orioles said Wednesday that they planned to target rotation help in the Rule 5 Draft, and they may have found someone in that vein in Bailey. Baltimore's new No. 21 prospect sports three above-average pitches in his fastball, curveball and changeup and is coming off a Double-A season in which he posted a 3.30 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while fanning 103 in 92 2/3 innings. The knocks on Bailey are two-fold. First, he's on the smaller side at 5-foot-10. Second, he has some effort in his delivery, leading to some control issues (e.g., a 10.6 percent walk rate in 2019). The overall arsenal is good enough, though, for the rebuilding O's to keep the 25-year-old right-hander around like they did with Richie Martin in 2019, even if it means extending a longer leash to make that happen. Stickiness level: Five

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-judging-rule-5-draft-stickiness/c-312187564

Bailey was the only player drafted who was rated a 5.

 

 

 

[Luke-OH]

I watched a couple more of Bailey’s outings (I’d watched parts of 3 for my list). 

The biggest question for me is whether he’ll be able to utilize the curveball effectively. He struggles to command the pitch, but it has a great shape and would not only be another weapon, but it’d help the fastball due to the spin mirroring. 

The changeup is better than I thought and it’s his best weapon against either handed batters.

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I watched a couple more of Bailey’s outings (I’d watched parts of 3 for my list). 

The biggest question for me is whether he’ll be able to utilize the curveball effectively. He struggles to command the pitch, but it has a great shape and would not only be another weapon, but it’d help the fastball due to the spin mirroring. 

The changeup is better than I thought and it’s his best weapon against either handed batters.

Appreciate the insights. It’s not going to change what moves we make, but it does give us realistic expectations on tangible things that these players can do. 

My first thoughts to the Rule 5 draft, and then considering what we have in AA/AAA, plus the 6 pitchers Elias just brought in, is that the one inning guys better show they belong or they won’t be around in November. “Traditional” Relievers like Kline, Phillips, Hanhold, Sulser, Scott, Fry, Armstrong, and Carroll.  

Until we have a stable rotation, which doesn’t look possible till mid 2021, we’re going to value multi inning arms with options. Guys like Bleier, Castro, Harvey, Tate, Diplan, Hess, and guys coming up from the minors. 

[Frobby]

Bailey was on Hot Stove this week and talked extensively about his work with Chris Holt while he was with the Astros.    Here’s some excerpts from Roch’s blog:

“Prior to being traded to the Astros, I didn’t have much familiarity with the data and pitch metrics,” he said. “When I got traded to Houston, they told me I have an elite-level fastball with a high spin rate, ... so they encouraged me to try to utilize that more so at the top of the strike zone, which was kind of mind-blowing to me because I grew up in an era where everyone’s got to keep the ball down. You’ve got to be trying to create sink and get ground balls, and for me, I just could never have a good feel for how to throw a two-seamer or a sinker or anything of that nature, so I just was like, ‘OK, I’m just going to try to throw this four-seamer as fast as I could.’ And discovering that I had that unique ability to create a high spin rate, which was probably the first thing. And combined with a solid changeup. And when I first got to Houston, my breaking ball definitely needed some work.

“Working with Chris Holt, we were able to develop a curveball and (are) in the process of trying to clean up the slider. So I think overall just having a really good fastball and changeup, and my mentality to attack hitters and just go right at them and have that bulldog mentality are things I’d say are my biggest strengths.”

* * *

“Chris is great,” Bailey said. “He’s definitely somebody who lives and breathes baseball. He shows up to the park every single day with an internal flame to try to help his players become the best that they can possibly be. And as a player you really respond well to that, when you see a guy that is at the park really early, constantly trying to figure out ways to help you perform at your highest level when it comes to competition.

“He’s just a great guy and always wants the best for his players and I think his work ethic is second to none. I just have the upmost respect for Chris and I’m excited to begin working with him once again.”

* * *

“[O]ver the past two seasons, working in a tandem rotation within the Astros organization, I’ve learned a lot about the process of getting my body ready to go in a relief role as well. So I think that’s one of my strengths is I can be very versatile.

“I think having a five-pitch mix benefits me as a starter, but then also I feel like being able to narrow down my arsenal to three pitches if needed in that one-inning role as a relief pitcher also is extremely beneficial. I just want to help Baltimore win as many baseball games as I can in whatever role that may be.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/12/bailey-on-rule-5-selection-it-was-pretty-surreal.html