2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[glenn__davis]

 

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What does this tell you how the Os view their OF options, including Kjerstads health.  You may not draft for need for high level college bats tend to move fast if they are good.  Cowser should move fast.  He should be in AA by the end of next year.  2023 isn’t unrealistic for him to be in the majors.  
 

It’s a crowded situation right now.

This is Mike Elias we're talking about here.  Starting him at low A next year would be spun as very aggressive. 

[Explosivo]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What does this tell you how the Os view their OF options, including Kjerstads health.  You may not draft for need for high level college bats tend to move fast if they are good.  Cowser should move fast.  He should be in AA by the end of next year.  2023 isn’t unrealistic for him to be in the majors.  
 

It’s a crowded situation right now.

I think that shows what we already signaled last year. Santander is gone if the offer is good enough. Mullins and Hays are your future in the outfield and if we can upgrade left field we will have a potent group. Stewart is solid and his bat plays in Camden but I think we will trade Santander for sure.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Explosivo said:

Well, scouts now seem to always be about projection. Watson is tough to project. You have a good point about teams going under slot. That just solidifies that there isn’t a top group of talent but rather a deeper group of talent, none of which have much clear separation. This draft may further show that whomever has the best scouts will get the best results.

Going underslot is like tanking.

The more teams that do it the lower the return is going to be.

Everyone is going to be looking to give second round money to third round talent in the fourth round.

[Three Run Homer]

I feel like a kid that got a savings bond for Christmas.

[glenn__davis]

3 minutes ago, doccat said:

To be fair, last year's "whiff" was an illness...

To be more fair, last year's "whiff" is not fully a whiff yet. Kjerstads story isn't over yet. 

[lovetoaster]

7 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Lol. Rizzo has an amazing draft record. His lifetime WAR from his drafted players is top 5 of any GM but okay…

They’ve got a fantastic farm system right now, but okay…

Oh, I forgot to say Lol. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Going underslot is like tanking.

The more teams that do it the lower the return is going to be.

Everyone is going to be looking to give second round money to third round talent in the fourth round.

I was going to respond to SG, but you're making the same point so.....

The more teams do it, it isn't as effective.

It probably doesn't change the calculation much, in terms of rebuilding or going underslot.

Personally, I don't see the value in going underslot in the MLB draft.  It's such a crapshoot; it would be one thing if you were trading down for more picks.  In fact a very different thing.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, glenn__davis said:

To be more fair, last year's "whiff" is not fully a whiff yet. Kjerstads story isn't over yet. 

To be fair, this chapter in his story might be over.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, gman082288 said:

Look, I (like I imagine everyone on here) wants this kid to succeed and I'll cheer for him. Cowser can hit and unless we're trading Mullins he's our LF. 

But this strategy is not guaranteed to work. It didn't last year when the player(s) they targeted with the savings didn't make it to them. If this is the NFL fine trade down and you get the extra high picks. No one in their right mind trades Austin Martin for our 1/4/5 picks from last year.

You can't fool anyone that this isn't about saving money (probably not as bad as the old O's ownership) but trying to use those savings later but that only works if you get those players to fall to you.

I do love the direction we're going as compared to the previous regime but we get too cute with this - I'm actually surprised we took Rutschman after all this. 

No strategy is guaranteed to work.  And the player they targeted with the savings didn't make it for reasons that don't have to do with performance.  

 

[milbest77]

The lack of pitchers drafted the last two years concerns me. Elias saying this kid was BPA, supposedly, but it feels like a mulligan for Kerjstad…

[glenn__davis]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

To be fair, this chapter in his story might be over.

Correct. Or it might not be. 

[lovetoaster]

8 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Lol. Rizzo has an amazing draft record. His lifetime WAR from his drafted players is top 5 of any GM but okay…

And when you shamelessly tank to get Strasburg and Harper, sure, your draft WAR is going to be high. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, milbest77 said:

The lack of pitchers drafted the last two years concerns me. Elias saying this kid was BPA, supposedly, but it feels like a mulligan for Kerjstad…

Puts all that much for pressure on DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez to be legit, or this rebuild is going to be waiting a few years for starting pitchers. 

[Pickles]

Just now, doccat said:

I'm a physician who treats Myocarditis.   

I'm afraid if he's still on the shelf this far out, that's really concerning and Can Of Corn might be right....

It still doesn't condemn the pick or the process behind the pick.  So it's not a very effective way to criticize Elias or this pick.

[yark14]

Safe underslot if that is the strategy the front office is going with.  He will probably be an ok major leaguer with balanced ability, but I don't see much elite upside with any of Coswer's tools.