New Rosenthal column

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

The second portion is something many are in denial about.  No J2 presence.  They had to build an international program from the ground up, an analytics department from the ground up, and they had a lot of turnover in the player development pipeline.  Remember, this was an organization that, despite a lot of investment in pitching via the draft, only developed one frontline starter (Erik Bedard) since Mike Messina.  Many guys in the front office and development pipeline only held onto their jobs because they were “former Orioles.”  

It was time a lot of those guys hit the door.  It was time for all of these changes to happen, and we are truly in denial about how bad the system was.  

I also think the communication about a floor is laughable.  Do they really think the teams who are employing tanking, whether us or the Astros/Cubs from years past, are going to spend the floor money on free agents, or are they going to trade for bad contracts like Eric Hosmer from teams up against the luxury tax and buy prospects in return?  

In any event, I am in favor of everything we’ve done up to this point.  It was time a lot of the changes that happened, happened, and I knew it would be a monumental task to reshape the organization into what it needed to be in order to sustain a winner.  The next two off-seasons should be the time we start looking to supplement the upcoming MLB core, however.  

Well said and even if Elias acquired some better players what good does it do long term to be 72-90? There are no rewards in baseball for being mediocre. One thing the national sports writers haven't acknowledged is the Orioles as a franchise were operating like it was the year 1988 and not 2018 when Elias was hired. Elias has made a lot of progress in three years.

And if you ask most Orioles fans they will settle for several years of losing now, if it builds a stable foundation that will turn the Orioles into a team that consistently has a chance and develops players like the Rays or A's. 

There is definitely a time limit to tanking and 2022 is when Elias has to start showing progress at the MLB level. Rutschman will make his MLB debut next year and other prospects will start playing. Maybe the 2022 O's are really bad before the all star break, but the team has a dramatic turnaround in the second half led by their prospects starting to play baseball for the Orioles. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Also, he seems to think that the 1988 team was trying because it had Murray, Ripken and a washed up Fred Lynn.  

By that measure, I guess the 2018 was trying hard because we had Manny Machado and some other names.  

The 2021 team isn't trying because we don't have any names that people would recognize outside of the diehard fanbase.

And yet if the 2021 team matches the 2018 team in wins, one team was trying and the other one wasn't.  

I remember 1988 and I don't recall any hope going into the season that Orioles would compete for the playoffs. Having name players doesn't mean you're trying to win, this isn't fantasy baseball. 

But, I guess that makes 1988 ok compared to 2021 for Rosenthal. 

The 2018 team was trying to compete, it was just a terribly misguided and half-assed attempt to sneak into a wildcard spot. 

[sevastras]

The 2021 payroll is over $50mm more than the 1988 payroll, so there is that

[vab]

We are years away, I don't think people understand. We are light-years behind the good teams. It's like trying to build an expansion team without any of the advantages given to expansion teams - no expansion draft, no extra draft-picks. And all this in a brutal division with an unbalanced schedule. I know it sucks when you've already been through five seasons of horrendous baseball but it might be another five years before we see real progress on the field. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2018 led directly to this debacle.  2018 when the O's were "going for it" and had an above average payroll w/ current/former All-Stars like Jones, Machado, Davis and Britton (injured at times).  They also had solid regulars like Gausman, Bundy, O'Day, etc.  2018 was just the worst designed team maybe ever, but the union is ok with them because they were spending money.  The money available to franchises has to be close to average across franchises.  Look how well that has worked in the NFL.  A team with a $70 mill payroll can't compete every year with a team w/ a $200 mill+ payroll.  Some years, they are going to run out of cheap talent, and tanking only makes sense.  Why punish the teams that are trying to compete w/ 1/2 or even 1/3 of the revenue of the top teams instead of the top revenue teams spreading some of their wealth?

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I remember 1988 and I don't recall any hope going into the season that Orioles would compete for the playoffs. Having name players doesn't mean you're trying to win, this isn't fantasy baseball. 

But, I guess that makes 1988 ok compared to 2021 for Rosenthal. 

The 2018 team was trying to compete, it was just a terribly misguided and half-assed attempt to sneak into a wildcard spot. 

Well it's a BS take on style points.  It's okay to win 45 games as long as the perception is that you're trying.  It's a problem with MLB baseball and tanking for draft picks if you've put together a poor roster and have the perception that you're not trying.  

Winning 45 games is winning 45 games.  The perception on "effort" is stupid if you're going to ignore/dismiss what the long term goal is, which is what Rosenthal seems to do.

[sevastras]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well it's a BS take on style points.  It's okay to win 45 games as long as the perception is that you're trying.  It's a problem with MLB baseball and tanking for draft picks if you've put together a poor roster and have the perception that you're not trying.  

Winning 45 games is winning 45 games.  The perception on "effort" is stupid if you're going to ignore/dismiss what the long term goal is, which is what Rosenthal seems to do.

There is tanking in football and basketball as well. He acts like this never happens. He suggests that teams shouldn’t be rewarded with a high draft pick for losing. Well, how is that going to work out, the WS winner happens to draft first in a lottery? Then you have competitive balance issues. 

[TonySoprano]

Taking away the 1988 memory lane, the article lacks substance, but so does the reported MLB proposal.  Other "anti-tanking measures?" TBD?

Quote

The proposal included many other components that are are not currently known, leaving an incomplete picture, and the players’ union is certain to oppose a minimum that is tied to a lowering of the luxury-tax threshold, or which gives the owners the opening to ask for a salary cap. But a soft minimum could be inserted into the system, similar to the threshold at the upper end. A minimum of that nature could be an important step toward restoring the sport’s competitive integrity, particularly if combined with other anti-tanking measures

Even if the Orioles catch lightning and attendance rebounds, they will always be at a financial disadvantage.  If they don't put in an upper cap, which the union opposes, what is the point?   Raising taxes on the rich teams is still a drop in the bucket to them.  Over the course of their 25 year TV deal, the Dodgers average $334M/per.  In 2020, they made $239M, double the Yankees $115M and over 4X the Orioles $54M
source - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

The only avenue to the smaller market teams is to load up on prospects and hope for the best before those prospects leave for big money deals elsewhere.   A minimum (+ who knows what?) allows them to maybe keep those prospects a couple years longer.   That's the business model Elias is using.   

We don't know the state of the Orioles finances.   Could they afford to do more is ripe for speculation.   How much more?   Rosenthal, Olney et. al have no idea.    All Kenny is doing is piling on.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well it's a BS take on style points.  It's okay to win 45 games as long as the perception is that you're trying.  It's a problem with MLB baseball and tanking for draft picks if you've put together a poor roster and have the perception that you're not trying.  

Winning 45 games is winning 45 games.  The perception on "effort" is stupid if you're going to ignore/dismiss what the long term goal is, which is what Rosenthal seems to do.

I understand the negative reaction to tanking, but it has been proven to work with the Astros and Cubs. And tanking as a franchise is never going to look good until the team that is tanking turns things around. I remember similar reactions to the Astros in 2013-14 about will they ever turn it around. Well they did and maybe the O's will do the same. 

Looking like you're trying to win with big name players is how you end up a loser for 15 years like the Orioles from 1998 to 2012. It's a tired point, but the Orioles aren't the Yankees when it comes to resources. The Orioles can't pour unlimited money into player acquisitions and player development. Yeah, the O's could get some veteran talent to marginally improve the team right now, but it still results in a last place finish in the AL East. 

The largest barrier to success has been ownership and it always will be, even if there have been reassurances that things are different now. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

I understand the negative reaction to tanking, but it has been proven to work with the Astros and Cubs. And tanking as a franchise is never going to look good until the team that is tanking turns things around. I remember similar reactions to the Astros in 2013-14 about will they ever turn it around. Well they did and maybe the O's will do the same. 

Looking like you're trying to win with big name players is how you end up a loser for 15 years like the Orioles from 1998 to 2012. It's a tired point, but the Orioles aren't the Yankees when it comes to resources. The Orioles can't pour unlimited money into player acquisitions and player development. Yeah, the O's could get some veteran talent to marginally improve the team right now, but it still results in a last place finish in the AL East. 

The largest barrier to success has been ownership and it always will be, even if there have been reassurances that things are different now. 

"Proven"?  How is the Philly tank rebuild going?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

"Proven"?  How is the Philly tank rebuild going?

Note I didn't say "always" works. I don't know if Orioles tanking will result in a playoff team, but it could. The Orioles could be 90+ losers three years from now with Elias jettisoned from the warehouse, and Brady Anderson is now running the franchise. 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Also, he seems to think that the 1988 team was trying because it had Murray, Ripken and a washed up Fred Lynn.  

By that measure, I guess the 2018 was trying hard because we had Manny Machado and some other names.  

The 2021 team isn't trying because we don't have any names that people would recognize outside of the diehard fanbase.

And yet if the 2021 team matches the 2018 team in wins, one team was trying and the other one wasn't.  

That’s exactly my point. Kenny doesn’t care whether the Os win or lose. It’s how much they pay to play. 

[Ripken]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

"Proven"?  How is the Philly tank rebuild going?

Right.  This is why the chirping has started.  Tear it down and rebuild?  Absolutely!  There was universal agreement on that.  Three years in with very little good pitching news, no hidden gems unearthed, and heading for the worst record yet.  Damn right people are going to start questioning Elias.  I've said I will give him until 2023 to build a "good" team so he still has some time with me but the clock is ticking and I have concerns. 

There is NOTHING that guarantees a rebuild will work.  I like much of what is going on.  I like that we'll probably have the 1-1 pick next year.  I'd certainly feel better if Hall and Heston were playing, I know that.  While the tweets and articles have some structural problems, they make a point and I'm glad people are starting to throw a few stones, especially with the CBA negotiations ahead.  

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think the Cubs or Astros won because of tanking.

[LookinUp]

45 minutes ago, sevastras said:

There is tanking in football and basketball as well. He acts like this never happens. He suggests that teams shouldn’t be rewarded with a high draft pick for losing. Well, how is that going to work out, the WS winner happens to draft first in a lottery? Then you have competitive balance issues. 

The implication from what I've read is they'll take away (actually, just diminish) incentives to tank and the offset will be some additional funding of poorer teams.

Really, without something resembling more equitable finances, this is all smoke and mirrors. If you want my lower 1/3 revenue team to compete on the regular, put me on a much more even financial playing field with the top 1/3 revenue teams. It's that simple. Everything else is noise.