Taking a two year perspective

[wildcard]

2022 is the road to contending in 2023

Going from 52 wins in 2021 to 93 winning in 2023 is a large task.   The O’s will want to build in 2022 to get to a lineup and pitching staff that can contend.

The starting staff in 2023 may be Means, Grayson, DL Hall, Tyler Wells, Bradish and Baumann.

The lineup could be:

CF Mullins

2B Urias  (361 OBP)

DH  Mancini

C    Adley

1B Mountcastle

RF  Santander/ Stowers

LF Hays

3B Henderson

SS  Westburg/Mateo

Elias is adding power relief arms who will gain experience to the pen in 2022.

The players that need to be added in 2022 are stop gap, one year contracts for a 3B, backup catcher and probably a couple of relievers.    If we look at 2002 as a building year where we get to watch  the O's young players develop at the major league level and in the high minors it is not a wasted year.

Elias may want young starters like Grayson, DL Hall, Bradish and Baumann to begin 2022 in at AAA.   Some may be promoted after as few weeks or a few months.   Hall probably is not promoted  until the 2nd half.   Pitchers like Zimmermann, Lowther, Akin, Kremer, Alex Wells get their chance at the rotation in April.  If they do well they stay but if they don’t they go to AAA.   I think Chris Ellis would be a good add for those April starts.

Most of the young starters will be on innings limits and may be shut down during the season so there will be opportunity for AAA starters to be promoted as the season moves on.  By 2023 most of the starters will have no pitch limits and will be a go for a full season.

I think we should look at 2022 as a development year in the majors followed by a contending year in 2023.   Not everything will go as planned due to injuries and non performance and that is where the FA or trades will happen after the 2022 season.

JMO

[Sports Guy]

I will bet a large sum of money that the entire 2023 rotation and entire 2023 starting lineup will not be comprised of players already here and if it is, we aren’t winning anything.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I will we a large sum of money that the entire 2023 rotation and entire 2023 starting lineup will not be comprised of players already here and if it is, we aren’t winning anything.

Did you read the last paragraph?  I think Elias tries to develop his prospects in 2022 and evaluates after the 2022 season where he has holes that need to be filled by FA and trades.

[Sports Guy]

Fair enough but people here just think you are going to go from some 65ish win team to contending.  It’s such a poor line of thought.

There is likely to be a progression, especially with our ownership team. 
 

It’s not like they are going to open their checkbooks and just spend tons of money on new players.  
 

It’s just not a realistic line of thinking.

[Pickles]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Fair enough but people here just think you are going to go from some 65ish win team to contending.  It’s such a poor line of thought.

There is likely to be a progression, especially with our ownership team. 
 

It’s not like they are going to open their checkbooks and just spend tons of money on new players.  
 

It’s just not a realistic line of thinking.

I actually disagree with this.

There was no progression for the Rays in 2008.  Or the Orioles in 2012.  Or for the Cubs in 2015.  You could say the Astros has a progression but they went from 51 wins to the playoffs in two years.

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I actually disagree with this.

There was no progression for the Rays in 2008.  Or the Orioles in 2012.  Or for the Cubs in 2015.  You could say the Astros has a progression but they went from 51 wins to the playoffs in two years.

It can happen but we are talking about what’s likely. 30-40 game improvements aren’t likely and it would be idiotic to assume one will happen.

Btw, the Cubs went from 73 wins to 97.   I’m trying to get to the point where the Os are winning that amount to make that leap.

Also keep In mind that the NLC was a garbage division and that helps.  They also signed Lester in that offseason prior to the 2015 season.

The Os aren’t going from 60ish wins to 95 in the ALE.  At least it’s highly unlikely.

[Sports Guy]

The parallel that people will want to draw is from the 2008 Rays.  They improved 30ish games in one season. 
 

How did that happen?  Well, figure they got contributions from 2 big time rookies/young guys that they didn’t get in 2007…Garza and Longoria.  The combined for a WAR over 7.  Garza wasn’t a rookie and had several ML starts under his belt.  Longoria was a rookie.  We have our Longoria and we certainly may have our Garza although the leap has to be made in 2023 from GRod.  

Offensively, they actually scored 8 fewer runs. 

So, how did they do it?  The answer is run prevention.

The Rays went from the worst ERA in MLB in 2007 to the 3rd best in 2008.  They improved by nearly 2 runs.  They also went from the worst defensive team to the best.  

They went from allowing 944 runs to 671.

Can the 2023 Orioles see a run differential like that?  Is that something we should bank on?

In 2021, the Os allowed 956 runs.   A rebuilding team poised to take the momentum of 2021 to legit contender in 2022 is Detroit.  In 2021, Detroit allowed 756 runs and scored just under 700.  They won 77 games and Pythagorean theorem had them at 75 wins.

In 2021, the runs allowed were about 300 runs more than they scored.  To get to that mid 70s, based off that Pythagorean record, they would need to improve by about 240 runs in 2022 to put them in realistic position to make the leap from mid 70s to mid 90s in one offseason.

How likely do you feel that is with the team doing next to nothing this offseason?  
 

Frobby started a thread recently about improving 100 runs.  I think that’s fairly realistic.  Let’s say they score 700 runs and allow 850.  That’s actually an improvement of about 200 runs.  That 150 run difference is around 67-70 wins.

So, if we are to assume that the team won’t be going from 50 wins to 95 wins and that some level of progression has to happen, the Os need to improve  by 200ish runs in 2022 and likely another 200 or so in 2023.  So, 400 runs in 2 years, one of which some of you are saying it would be a waste to make moves to get better.

So, tell me..how realistic is this?

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The parallel that people will want to draw is from the 2008 Rays.  They improved 30ish games in one season. 
 

How did that happen?  Well, figure they got contributions from 2 big time rookies/young guys that they didn’t get in 2007…Garza and Longoria.  The combined for a WAR over 7.  Garza wasn’t a rookie and had several ML starts under his belt.  Longoria was a rookie.  We have our Longoria and we certainly may have our Garza although the leap has to be made in 2023 from GRod.  

Offensively, they actually scored 8 fewer runs. 

So, how did they do it?  The answer is run prevention.

The Rays went from the worst ERA in MLB in 2007 to the 3rd best in 2008.  They improved by nearly 2 runs.  They also went from the worst defensive team to the best.  

They went from allowing 944 runs to 671.

Can the 2023 Orioles see a run differential like that?  Is that something we should bank?

In 2021, the Os allowed 956 runs.   A rebuilding team poised to take the momentum of 2021 to legit contender in 2022 is Detroit.  In 2021, Detroit allowed 756 runs and scored just under 700.  They won 77 games and Pythagorean theorem had them at 75 wins.

In 2021, the runs allowed about 300 runs more than they scored.  To get to that mid 70s, based off that Pythagorean record, they would need to improve by about 240 runs in 2022 to put them in realistic position to make the leap from mid 70s to mid 90s in one offseason.

How likely do you feel that is with the team doing next to nothing this offseason?  
 

Frobby started a thread recently about improving 100 runs.  I think that’s fairly realistic.  Let’s say they score 700 runs and allow 850.  That’s actually an improvement of about 200 runs.  That 150 run difference is around 67-70 wins.

So, if we are to assume that the team won’t be going from 50 wins to 95 wins and that some level of progression has to happen, the Os need to improve  by 200ish runs in 2022 and likely another 200 or so in 2023.  So, 400 runs in 2 years, one of which some of you are saying it would be a waste to make moves to get better.

So, tell me..how realistic is this?

First off the OP is talking about 2 years not one.    Second. The O's would be adding 4 of their O's top 10 prospects to the offense include Adley, Stowers, Henderson and Westburg. Plus adding Mateo who was a  BA top 100 prospect who has only played 32 games with the O's last year.   That is upgrading about  half the offense.    A large increase could occur.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

First off the OP is talking about 2 years not one.    Second. The O's would be adding 4 of their O's top 10 prospects to the offense include Adley, Stowers, Henderson and Westburg. Plus adding Mateo who was a  BA top 100 prospect who has only played 32 games with the O's last year.   That is upgrading about  half the offense.    A large increase could occur.

First of all, I was addressing Pickle’s post.

Secondly, please stop talking about Mateo as if he matters.  You would figure you would learn to stop doing this.

And lastly, we don’t know if those prospects are going to be good yet.  You like to make assumptions.

So yes, again it’s possible they see that major improvement.  It’s always possible things like that occur.

Im talking about what is likely.  Im talking about what the odds are.  The odds are, without real invest into this team that they aren’t going to see this dramatic of an improvement in 2 years. 

[wildcard]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I was addressing Pickle’s post.

Secondly, please stop talking about Mateo as if he matters.  You would figure you would learn to stop doing this.

And lastly, we don’t know if those prospects are going to be good yet.  You like to make assumptions.

So yes, again it’s possible they see that major improvement.  It’s always possible things like that occur.

Im talking about what is likely.  Im talking about what the odds are.  The odds are, without real invest into this team that they aren’t going to see this dramatic of an improvement in 2 years. 

You are projecting just like I am.  Don't act like you know more than anyone else.

Mateo has never been given a chance to play regularly in the MLB.  The O's did that for a month and he hit better than he had previous.  All that means is the O's are probably going to take a long look at him in 2022.   He has some tools.  We will see if he can apply them and win  a lot more playing time.

[scOtt]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

2022 is the road to contending in 2023

Going from 52 wins in 2021 to 93 winning in 2023 is a large task.   The O’s will want to build in 2022 to get to a lineup and pitching staff that can contend.

The starting staff in 2023 may be Means, Grayson, DL Hall, Tyler Wells, Bradish and Baumann.

The lineup could be:

CF Mullins

2B Urias  (361 OBP)

DH  Mancini

C    Adley

1B Mountcastle

RF  Santander/ Stowers

LF Hays

3B Henderson

SS  Westburg/Mateo

 

JMO

Not sure who that is. Coby Mayo?

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Not sure who that is. Coby Mayo?

Gunnar Henderson

[scOtt]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Fair enough but people here just think you are going to go from some 65ish win team to contending.  It’s such a poor line of thought.

There is likely to be a progression, especially with our ownership team. 
 

It’s not like they are going to open their checkbooks and just spend tons of money on new players.  
 

It’s just not a realistic line of thinking.

They opened their checkbooks for a sh!itload of computers and cameras and analytics gear, ton of new staff in the analytics department, new academy in the D.R., big money (for them...) for IFAs.

All that's not the same scale as big money for FAs, but why do all that if you're not going to follow up?

[scOtt]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Gunnar Henderson

Oh! Duh!

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

You are projecting just like I am.  Don't act like you know more than anyone else.

Mateo has never been given a chance to play regularly in the MLB.  The O's did that for a month and he hit better than he had previous.  All that means is the O's are probably going to take a long look at him in 2022.   He has some tools.  We will see if he can apply them and win  a lot more playing time.

There is a reason Mateo has never been given a chance to play and it’s not because he’s a stud.

And btw, Im not projecting anything.  I’m merely going with the odds and talking about what is likely.