Are the O's turning a corner?

[jdwilde1]

Yes, they are definitely turning a corner.  To me, that means 100 loss seasons are in the rear view mirror.  That may seem like a low bar, but over the last three full seasons they lost 333 games.  The big question is how long to 81+ and 90+ wins.  It could happen quickly or not at all, but I am cautiously optimistic based mostly on the organizational pitching improvements.

Edited May 6, 2022 by jdwilde1
Typo

[jrobb21613]

To early to tell if they’ve finally turned a corner but I’ll say this there is a swagger in the dugout that I’ve not seen in a long time and I like it!

[connja]

I am truly shocked about the quality of pitching we have seen this year.  Not sure if it's sustainable, even with the enforcements coming.  The bullpen is sure to wear down over time.  Zimmerman obviously will come back to earth a bit.

That said they are playing much better baseball. enjoyable to watch.  more like the shortened 2020 season than last year.  

 

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, jdwilde1 said:

Yes, they are definitely turning a corner.  To me, that means 100 loss seasons are in the rear view mirror.  That may seem like a low bar, but over the last three full seasons they lost 333 games.  The big question is how long to 81+ and 90+ wins.  It could happen quickly or not at all, but I am cautiously optimistic based mostly on the organizational pitching improvements.

Hopefully we’re only 5-6 weeks away from seeing AR and GR up full time. That should let us know how close we are to end the losing. Means’ injury really hurt our hopes for next year. 

[scbalt52]

My predictions on call up dates are:

Adley - May 16th

Grayson - May 31st

Hall - July 4th

[Aristotelian]

 

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Hopefully we’re only 5-6 weeks away from seeing AR and GR up full time. That should let us know how close we are to end the losing. Means’ injury really hurt our hopes for next year. 

Say we play .500 in the second half with those two... do we take a look at Manaea, Kershaw, or Syndergaard? 

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 

Say we play .500 in the second half with those two... do we take a look at Manaea, Kershaw, or Syndergaard? 

I think we take a look at em, but I haven't looked at the schedule enough to know when they might be in town....  

[jdwilde1]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Hopefully we’re only 5-6 weeks away from seeing AR and GR up full time. That should let us know how close we are to end the losing. Means’ injury really hurt our hopes for next year. 

No question that we are going to start getting some answers on the first crop of prospects.  I think that 2024 is the year that the O’s could become legitimate contenders.  I know projecting pitching rotations a few years out is a fool’s errand, but GrayRod, DL Hall, Bradish, Zimmerman, and Means has the some serious potential.

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:

My predictions on call up dates are:

Adley - May 16th

Grayson - May 31st

Hall - July 4th

I like it, although I have to think Hall could be up quicker than that if he shows well at AAA. Elias was pretty aggressive in his quotes about Hall, so he could surprise us with an early call up. The argument against that is it's harder to manage his innings in the big leagues than AAA. 

[maybenxtyr]

Just get the youngsters up before we get ahead of ourselves. I think it's way too early in the season to try and project what the current team is capable of. They're still on a roughly 100 loss pace and getting 4.2-5 innings out of a starter most nights will destroy a bullpen. 

 

That being said, I'm still happy seeing them be more competitive that in recent years.

[emmett16]

It looks like there is a consistent approach through each level and that the results are tickling up.  Pitchers are attacking more and walking less through the org.  Batters are not flailing at terrible pitches and driving hittable pitches.  There is a very noticeable change for the better.  

[Natty]

The Twins were 9-1 the last 10 games coming in, leading their division.  And we split with them. 

Our bats are coming to life.  Our pitching can win us some games. 

 

 

[jamalshw]

It really depends on what "turning a corner" means. Does it mean the team is on the trend upwards compared to the downward spiral at the big league level of late while the farm was growing? Sure. We are going to see Adley during the next homestand. We will see Rodriguez relatively soon and Hall before the end of the year. We should see Stowers this year and maybe get a look at others (Nuestrom, Bannon, Vavra, etc. based on need and production they're putting up in AAA). This team is more exciting this year than the last few and more fun to watch. So if "turning the corner" simply means an improved Major League product, then yes, we've turned the corner. If it means we're going to get close to .500 and the major league record matters, then no. Not quite yet. 

This is a growth year. We are seeing the graduation of some prospects who we will see take some lumps in the Majors but set themselves up for more success in 2023 when we will see more promotions. Next year is the year we turn the corner based on how I define it. It's the year that we start looking at records, stop comparing ourselves to the worst of the worst and elevate--hopefully--to the middle of the pack as we look forward to actually competing in 2024. 

I still don't trust most of the pitching staff. There are some good signs in the pen, but we need to see more before we know for sure. I don't see Watkins as a rotation answer. I'm skeptical of the Wells experiment and of course Lyles is a placeholder. We are still sellers at the deadline. We will still see Mancini and Lyles dealt (and maybe Santander, too--though with the extra walks so far this year, I wouldn't mind keeping him). 

[Camden_yardbird]

No.  Players don't suddenly out performing their career rates.  Small improvements are possible.  Large one in your players.  But this team wasn't put together that way.

[btdart20]

27 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

No.  Players don't suddenly out performing their career rates.  Small improvements are possible.  Large one in your players.  But this team wasn't put together that way.

Yes but…. Depends on where they are in their career arc though right?  Younger players improve typically until 27, stabilize, then decline.  Trey, Chirinos, and Lyles are the only starters 30+. The average age of the team is 28.  For many, they are (statistically speaking) likely starting the best years of their careers.  Those in the age range proving otherwise are probably done (ahem Odor).